ChainCatcher message, CICC research report points out that by mid-2025, U.S. inflation and economic data may gradually recover, and the pace of interest rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump's election, the risk of interest rate increases is greater than the risk of decreases, and a 100bps rate cut may be an appropriate magnitude.The market's expectations for the future path of interest rate cuts are currently experiencing a swing from one extreme to another, influenced by recent economic data, especially after the election. In terms of rhythm, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt in interest rate cuts.CICC estimates that inflation in the fourth quarter of this year will show a year-on-year increase due to base effects, but driven by the decline in rents, inflation and core inflation are unlikely to face significant pressure in the first quarter of 2025. In terms of magnitude, a rate cut to around 3.5% is a reasonable level.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the U.S. non-farm data for October is weak and below expectations, partly affected by hurricanes and strike events. The hurricane forced a large number of people to evacuate and significantly reduced the response rate of business surveys, leading to a sharp decline in employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors, with a surge in the number of people unable to work due to weather conditions. Strikes have also led to a noticeable shrinkage in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may reverse in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling down, with no signs of rapid deterioration.Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with monetary policy continuing to normalize, but the pace of rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected.

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in Q3 2024 is 2.8%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and a slight decline from 3.0% in Q2, but still a remarkable result. In terms of components, personal consumption expenditures are strong, corporate equipment investment is expanding, and exports and government spending are accelerating, indicating that the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. Relatively weaker are real estate investment and construction investment, showing that high interest rates are still having a suppressive effect.In addition, inflation further declined in Q3, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing. We believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts for now, expecting a 25 basis point cut next week, while whether to skip a rate cut in December will depend on inflation developments.

ChainCatcher message, CICC pointed out in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the U.S. Economy": "Under the ordinary assumption scenario, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In an extreme assumption scenario, the Federal Reserve's stance will turn 'hawkish' and restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%."The article further states: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be above inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025."

ChainCatcher news, the opening ceremony of the ABGA Founders Club was successfully held in Singapore. The establishment of the ABGA Founders Club marks a new phase in the investment incubation business layout of ABGA and ICC in early projects. During the event, the accelerator focusing on innovation in the Web3 application field, Imagine Creation Combinator (ICC), announced the successful establishment of its first ecological game fund------the ICC Gaming Eco Fund.This fund will focus on the Web3 gaming ecosystem, including but not limited to investments and incubation of projects in Web3 games, gaming infrastructure, (Ton) Telegram, and Kaia (Line) Mini Game ecosystems. This round of financing has received strong support from several well-known investment institutions, including Kaia Foundation, NEO Foundation, Waterdrop Capital, DepinX, and support from individual angel investors, as well as strategic support from ABGA (Asia Blockchain Gaming Alliance).In the future, ICC will continue to focus on, support, and accelerate early-stage quality projects in the Web3 innovation application track, including AI, Social, DePin, RWA, and other directions, establish dedicated track funds, and select quality projects for incubation and support from the market through collaboration with mainstream public chains, conducting customized acceleration camps, and hosting hackathons. The establishment of the ICC Eco Fund is an important milestone for ICC in promoting innovation and development in the Web3 application ecosystem, and also marks a further deepening of its influence in the global Web3 industry.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CICC's research report states that the Ministry of Finance has expressed a relatively positive stance, which is expected to boost investor confidence, as policy signals are being formed. On Saturday, the Ministry of Finance announced a package of incremental policy measures at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. Against this backdrop, CICC believes that the market is likely to regain confidence after experiencing prior adjustments, with a short-term expectation of halting the decline and stabilizing. However, the rate of recovery may significantly slow down compared to before the holiday, and attention should be focused on the review of specific fiscal plans by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which may convene at the end of this month.

ChainCatcher message, CICC research report points out that, from the perspective of the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve has taken a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points than we expected. The monetary policy statement indicates that recent inflation data has given decision-makers more confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Fed's actions suggest that its reaction function has completely shifted from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment.We see this as a signal that the Fed has a low tolerance for rising unemployment rates, and officials do not want to risk undermining the favorable prospect of a "soft landing." Based on Powell's statements, we believe that any unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% in the future could trigger further rate cuts. This also indicates that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance until employment market data stabilizes. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a soft landing for the economy in the short term will further increase due to the Fed's more significant rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, the CICC major asset inflation sub-item prediction model shows that as long as no black swan events occur, the U.S. CPI inflation is likely to remain in the range of 2.5%-3% this year, and PCE will remain in the range of 2%-2.5%. The risk of secondary inflation in the second half of the year is low, alleviating concerns for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CICC evaluated Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as follows:It is basically clear that a rate cut in September is a done deal, in line with expectations. CME interest rate futures indicate a 76% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September and a 24% probability of a 50bp cut.The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from prices to employment, essentially declaring victory in the fight against inflation (stating that inflation expectations are already well anchored), and assessing the job market as no longer overheating, balanced, with rising risks.There was no mention of how much to cut rates in the future; it still depends on the data. A 50bp cut currently seems unrealistic, and we need to wait for next month's non-farm data. Powell also does not view the rise in the unemployment rate as a deterioration of the job market, believing it is mainly due to more people entering the labor force and a slowdown in hiring. The attitude towards the job market is one of observation and vigilance.

ChainCatcher news, Sei announced that it will provide grants and ecological support for the ICC Camp S1 startup program Star Symphony and Dragon Ninja. As a Layer 1 blockchain that combines the advantages of Ethereum and Solana, Sei integrates Ethereum's mainstream development standards with Solana's high-performance features. The V2 update of Sei has made it the first parallelized EVM, offering players and game developers a faster and smoother gaming experience.Star Symphony and Dragon Ninja joined the ICC Camp's first phase startup camp focused on the Web3 Gaming track in March this year, and successfully completed the content learning and visiting program of the startup course by the end of April.Star Symphony is a Rhythm Battler game built on blockchain. By integrating music and blockchain, it creates a unique and immersive user experience. Dragon Ninja is a role-playing adventure game where players will explore as ninjas in the game.

ChainCatcher message, hosted by ABGA and organized by ICC, the Web3 Innovation Festival will be grandly held at the Singapore Expo from September 16 to 17, 2024, and is now officially open for partnership recruitment.The Web3 Innovation Festival is a community-driven, developer-centric innovation event aimed at promoting the innovation and development of Web3 applications, empowering the industry. The main venue of the Web3 Innovation Festival will focus on the theme of "Builder-Centered Innovation" and will include multiple sub-forums on AI, RWA, Depin, and Gaming (WGS). The event will gather over 50 blockchain industry leaders from more than 20 countries, with over 300 representatives from policy agencies, financial enterprises, investment institutions, infrastructure providers, and industry application projects engaging in face-to-face discussions with guests. WIF will actively promote extensive and comprehensive industry communication and interaction, contributing to the ecological prosperity of the global Web3 industry and the economic development of the Asia region.The ticket purchase portal is now open. For more information, please follow the official ABGA Luma account. Meanwhile, the Web3 Innovation Festival will provide partners with excellent brand exposure and collaboration opportunities, including sponsorship seats, co-hosting sub-forums, speeches, roundtables, and booth collaboration opportunities. ABGA and ICC sincerely invite industry organizations to join in this grand event, explore the pinnacle of innovation together, and jointly create a new era of Web3.Contact information:TG: @ABGAofficial @ICCombinator_officialCooperation deck: ++https://docsend.com/view/je9iy4hfze92f6jr++Ticket link: ++https://lu.ma/srlcywnc++Source: ++https://x.com/ICCombinator/status/1802597928235827611++++https://x.com/ABGAasia/status/1802550351260012808++

ChainCatcher message, CICC's research report believes that the actual GDP annualized growth rate for the first quarter of 2024 in the United States is 1.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of 2.4% and also below last year's fourth quarter rate of 3.4%. The institution believes that this GDP report is not as weak as it appears, because consumer spending and fixed asset investment, which represent domestic demand, remain robust, and the low GDP is dragged down by high import growth. However, the increase in imports indicates that demand is not weak, and domestic supply cannot meet the demand, thus requiring overseas supply to satisfy it, which aligns with the characteristic of "supply not meeting demand" in the U.S. economy since the pandemic.Compared to GDP data, more critically, the core PCE inflation in the first quarter rebounded more than expected, which poses the biggest risk to the market. The elasticity of inflation will raise the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, allowing the dollar interest rates to remain high for a longer period. The institution reiterates its previous judgment that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year, likely in the fourth quarter.

ChainCatcher news, Atticc Labs and its product EarlyFans have completed a $1.5 million seed round financing, with participation from Alliance DAO, SNZ Holding, GSR, Zee Prime Capital, GBV Capital, ProDigital Future Fund, Alchemy Ventures, CyberConnect, Mask Network founder Suji Yan, CyberConnect co-founder Ryan Li, and Jademont, a partner at Waterdrop Capital. Other angel investors include 0xminion, angel, icebergy, naniXBT, toptickcrypto, and Zeneca. The funds raised will be used for the launch and promotion of the product EarlyFans.It is understood that EarlyFans is a SocialFi product on Blast L2, aimed at helping creators and early fans profit. Previously, EarlyFans won an award at the Blast Big Bang competition.

ChainCatcher news, ICC Camp has reached a strategic cooperation with RootData. RootData will provide ecological support for ICC Camp, and by integrating the resource advantages of both parties, they will jointly build a strong global Web3 gaming ecosystem to help outstanding startup teams thrive in the future Web3 gaming field.ICC Camp will soon announce the list of participants and course schedule for the first entrepreneurship camp, and will gradually launch offline courses and study tours in March. For more information, please follow the official ICC platform.

ChainCatcher news, ICC Camp has reached a strategic cooperation with ABCDE. ABCDE will provide ecological support for ICC Camp by integrating the resource advantages of both parties to jointly build a strong global Web3 gaming ecosystem, helping outstanding startup teams in the Web3 gaming field thrive in the future.ICC Camp will soon announce the list of participants and course schedule for the first entrepreneurship camp, and will gradually launch offline courses and study tour programs in March. For more inquiries, please follow the official ICC platform.

ChainCatcher news, ICC Camp has reached a strategic cooperation with imToken. imToken will provide ecological support for ICC Camp, and by integrating the resource advantages of both parties, they will jointly build a strong global Web3 gaming ecosystem to help outstanding startup teams thrive in the future Web3 gaming field.ICC Camp has officially opened enrollment for participants. We welcome entrepreneurs focused on Web3 games to actively apply, and we also invite institutions, media, and communities interested in the Web3 gaming ecosystem to join the first phase of the startup camp program to share in the prosperous development of the Web3 gaming ecosystem.

ChainCatcher news, according to Tonghuashun, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the Federal Reserve's January meeting kept the policy interest rate unchanged, which is in line with expectations. The monetary policy statement suggests that officials still lack confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target, thus they wish to retain flexibility rather than rush to cut rates in March. We believe that the recent strong economic data, along with supply chain risks caused by disruptions in Red Sea shipping, are the main reasons for the Federal Reserve's caution.If the economic fundamentals remain strong and supply risks have not been completely resolved, the risk of inflationary pressures re-emerging cannot be ignored. Our expected baseline scenario is still that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in the second quarter, but the extent of rate cuts for the entire year may not be as much as the market predicts.