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U.S. bond investors expect a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries may fall below 4%

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury investors are beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve's policy focus will shift from curbing inflation to addressing the slowdown in economic growth. Under this expectation, U.S. Treasuries have risen for six consecutive trading days, with yields falling to their lowest level of the year.Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that if the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy shift slightly, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could potentially fall below 4%. Currently, traders have resumed expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year (each by 25 basis points) and anticipate further cuts next year to around 3.65%. The bank believes that if market expectations for rates drop to 3.25%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could fall below 4%.Recently, U.S. Treasury auctions have performed strongly, with Wednesday's auction of $44 billion in seven-year Treasuries yielding 4.194%, lower than the pre-auction market close of 4.203%, indicating demand exceeded expectations. Analysts point out that investors see reasons for rate cuts not only from economic growth indicators but also from U.S. fiscal and immigration policies, including Trump's threats to impose tariffs on major trading partners.So far this year, U.S. Treasuries have risen 2.3%, surpassing the S&P 500 index's increase of 1.3%. The personal consumption expenditures price index for January, to be released on Friday, may become a key data point influencing market expectations.
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