ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%.The reason is that the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts will lower short-term rates, but will also stimulate the economy and increase the fiscal deficit, leading to increased demand for long-term government bonds, which will cause long-term yields to rise.In addition, Trump's tariff plan may raise inflation expectations, and the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds to address the fiscal deficit, both of which will push up yields.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House stated, "As we enter 2025, we may see a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates once every other meeting." Her team expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times in 2025. Although policymakers have differences on specific details, Wall Street economists generally believe that the current rapid pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not continue.According to Bloomberg data, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates about twice in 2025. The Federal Reserve will release its updated forecasts on December 18.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the recently released U.S. personal consumption expenditure data met expectations, and the market is optimistic about the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, with gold prices slightly rising in the Asian early session.Analysts from ANZ Research stated in a research report that during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the overall market performance was sluggish overnight, and the commodity market currently estimates a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 56% a week ago.Meanwhile, analysts noted that the geopolitical tensions in Europe have also boosted demand for safe-haven assets following the Russian missile strikes on Ukraine.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, indicating that despite a cooling job market, the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs. The number of continuing unemployment claims reached its highest level in three years.Since the beginning of this year, labor market data has shown mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as it balances employment and inflation targets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach expects the Federal Reserve to skip a rate cut in December or January next year, followed by up to four rate cuts within 2025. Analysts at Bank of America expect a rate cut in December, but they add that "given the resilience of economic activity and stubborn inflation, the magnitude of the rate cut seems to lean towards being more moderate."According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects about a 45% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming December meeting. A month ago, this probability was 24%.

ChainCatcher Message, the "small twist" on the road to falling U.S. inflation is most evident in the core PCE, which has hovered around an annual rate of 2.7% for the past six months.Economists at Bank of America Securities wrote, "Two consecutive months of 0.3% growth (month-over-month) will certainly lead Fed participants to reassess their inflation and policy outlook."Nevertheless, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but given the strong economic activity and persistent inflation, the rate-cutting cycle seems to be shorter."

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that some participants indicated that if inflation remains high, the Fed may pause its easing policy and keep the policy rate at a restrictive level. If the labor market weakens or economic activity stumbles, easing policies may accelerate. Many participants at the Fed's meeting on November 6-7 expressed that the uncertainty around the neutral interest rate level makes it appropriate to gradually reduce policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's latest report, Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000, leading to over $430 million in long positions being liquidated. This drop occurred after the spot Bitcoin ETF ended five consecutive days of net inflows, recording $438 million in outflows on Monday, while MicroStrategy's stock price fell by 4.4%.Previously, MicroStrategy made a record purchase of $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin last week. With the U.S. holiday approaching and a lack of catalysts to drive prices up in the short term, Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 has temporarily stalled.Ethereum's implied volatility is significantly skewed towards put options, reflecting a market sentiment similar to that of Bitcoin. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ChainCatcher news, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday), some economic data and events in the U.S. will be released earlier.In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims and the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released earlier at 21:30 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday), and the monthly PCE inflation data will be released earlier at 23:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).In terms of events, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting will be released earlier at 03:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 43.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 56.2%.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that he expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to achieve a goal that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity.Goolsbee said, "Unless there is compelling evidence that the economy is overheating, I see no reason not to continue lowering the federal funds rate." "The pace of rate cuts depends on the outlook and conditions. But in my view, we are on a clear path that will lead to lower rates, closer to the neutral rate." He mentioned that his prediction for the neutral rate is close to the officials' median estimate, which is 2.9% as projected in September. Goolsbee noted that the overall situation in recent months has been that inflation has often been below expectations, but not significantly above the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 1%, reaching a historic high. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.35%, marking five consecutive trading days of gains, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.16%. Over the week, the Dow accumulated a 2% increase, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.7%. As the "Trump Cabinet 2.0" gradually takes shape, the market is generally optimistic about the implementation of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation policies.Cryptocurrencies showed an upward trend last week, with the market sentiment index remaining in the greed phase, indicating investors' optimistic expectations for future price movements. As BTC continues to hit new highs approaching $100,000, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally saw substantial gains following the market trend, while the popularity of meme projects declined last week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% last week, surpassing the 108 mark and reaching a two-year high. The bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone has dampened oil demand expectations, but due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose about 6% last week, marking the best performance in two months. Recent trends in gold have been supported by strong risk aversion and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with gold prices rising for five consecutive days last week, accumulating a 5.7% increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly two years.After Trump's victory in the presidential election, the Fed's stance on rate cuts has become increasingly cautious. Last week, a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials cast a shadow over the highly anticipated prospect of a Fed rate cut in December. The minutes from the Fed's November meeting and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday local time, respectively, which may stir market waves. Currently, investors expect the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December to be slightly above 50%. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan recently released a report evaluating the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established by incoming President Trump, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, aimed at streamlining federal operations and cutting wasteful spending.The report stated: "In terms of government efficiency, Trump is expected to push an agenda that advocates for reducing red tape. This includes the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency," and added: "We believe that this department will find it difficult to achieve this."JPMorgan explained the reasons why DOGE may encounter obstacles: "Ultimately, Congress controls government spending, and DOGE is outside of Congress. The department can propose all the suggestions it wants, but in the end, it is the typical 60-vote majority in Congress that decides legislative changes."The report concluded: "One of the key questions for investors in 2025 is which parts of the Trump 2.0 agenda will be emphasized and which parts will gradually fade."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed sharply different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level, which is the interest rate that balances the Federal Reserve's various economic goals.Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are."In contrast, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Federal Reserve officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, in this week's speech, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed starkly different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level. The neutral interest rate refers to the rate level that allows the Fed's various economic goals to be balanced.Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are." Meanwhile, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Fed officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that once the Fed enters the "normalization" phase, questions regarding further rate cuts will become more important. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, SEI Investment Company's CIO Jim Smigiel stated that the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates, but the number of future rate cuts may be fewer than in the past.He said, "We believe that a rate cut is possible, but the facts indicate that we are closer to the end of the rate-cutting cycle than the beginning." While discussions about improving government efficiency and cutting costs are also on the agenda of incoming President Trump, the likelihood of rising inflation is much greater. "Essentially, the FOMC will be forced to cut rates again in December and then pause rate cuts in 2025 to avoid the appearance of a policy reversal shortly after a 50 basis point cut."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Barr plans to complete the entire term as Vice Chair of Supervision.