ChainCatcher message, after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, Bitcoin rebounded from below $83,000 and briefly broke through $88,000. Some analysts believe that market volatility may soon calm down, and many bearish factors may have already been digested by the market. Sina G., co-founder of 21st Capital, stated that the market uncertainty surrounding tariffs and government spending may be resolved in the coming weeks, and the market focus may shift to tax cuts, deregulation, and interest rate reductions, which could attract more capital into Bitcoin and the digital asset space.Aurelie Barthere, chief research analyst at Nansen, also stated that uncertainty related to tariffs may be easing, as the U.S. government, particularly Treasury Secretary Yellen, has taken a more pragmatic approach in tariff negotiations.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that last week, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was 8,775 Bitcoins (approximately $744 million), reversing the previous trend of net outflows for several weeks.Driven by this influx of funds, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound over the weekend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively breaking back above $85,000 and $2,000. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index improved from 32% last week to 45% this week, indicating a relief in market risk aversion sentiment.Analysis shows that this rebound is mainly driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, as the open interest in perpetual contracts remains sluggish and funding rates stay stable. However, QCP maintains a cautious attitude towards sustained upward breakthroughs, reminding investors to pay attention to the upcoming tariff escalation on April 2, which may put pressure on risk assets.

ChainCatcher news indicates that the current price of Bitcoin has dropped 22% from the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended, and this drop may be a "shakeout"—a sharp decline triggered by long positions being liquidated, followed by a rapid rebound.Bitfinex analysts point out that "multiple key technical indicators have turned bearish, raising speculation about an early end to the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains a key factor; history shows that pullbacks during bull market cycles are normal, and this is more likely a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom for Bitcoin may align with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500), with $72,000 to $73,000 still being a critical support range, but global bond yields and stock market trends will dominate Bitcoin's next moves. The risks of a trade war have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment." Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen to a historical low of 8%, the halving event remains crucial for long-term price trends. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and since then, Bitcoin has accumulated over a 31% increase. Although the ETF purchases driven by institutional adoption over the past year have become a major force, the halving effect will continue to influence the market."

ChainCatcher news, Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, stated that the rise of CeDeFi is the biggest negative for Ethereum, as it means that a large amount of business logic that was originally expected to run on distributed networks as open-source smart contracts has actually turned into closed-source code running on a single server.Zhu Su believes that Ethereum needs to embrace use cases that benefit from global distributed computing and anti-censorship characteristics, including some cypherpunk-style applications (such as privacy protection) and yet-to-be-developed low-hanging fruits.He pointed out that if Ethereum itself does not perform well, decentralized finance will find it difficult to rise again, because in a world where validator decentralization and demand for smart contracts are low, people can choose to operate off-chain to save time and money.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have warned that the ETH/BTC exchange rate may further decline in the coming weeks. Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani described the current situation as a "falling knife" scenario, indicating that it is experiencing a rapid and steep decline, which typically discourages buyers from entering too early. The "falling knife" metaphor suggests that attempting to "catch the knife" when one believes the asset is at a low point can lead to greater losses, especially when the downward trend continues.Technically, the relative strength index (RSI) on the ETH/BTC two-week chart has fallen to a historical low of 23.32. While an RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition that may trigger a rebound, Ethereum's RSI has continued to decline for two months after being oversold, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing. If it cannot rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, ETH/BTC may continue to drop to the 0.020-0.016 BTC range, representing a further decline of about 30% from the current price.Fundamental factors also support a bearish outlook. Ethereum faces strong competition from rivals like Solana, with VanEck data showing that Solana's decentralized exchange trading volume has surpassed that of Ethereum. Additionally, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted traditional cryptocurrency market cycles, with $129 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 draining liquidity from the altcoin market, including Ethereum.

ChainCatcher news, Tangent co-founder Jason Choi expressed the view that "in the absence of specific reasons (such as expectations for ETFs or Trump), the trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin) will generally be linked to the performance of the U.S. stock market. As a speculator primarily focused on cryptocurrencies, my fundamental view is that aggressive positions should not be taken based on macroeconomic factors, but an understanding of the macroeconomy should provide a reference for existing aggressive positions."

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene shares investment insights on his personal channel:"There's been some debate about which utility/DeFi tokens are worth buying from a long-term value investment (HTF value) perspective. From a value investment standpoint, three key elements need to be present before I would invest:It is absolutely essential that token holders are the primary consideration for the team (or at least on equal footing with equity holders). As long as equity holders enjoy benefits that token holders cannot access, I will not blindly chase tokens for their value. This does not necessarily mean that token holders need to receive immediate direct utility from the tokens (such as buybacks, dividends, etc.), but it is absolutely necessary to receive clear and consistent signals from the team indicating that token holders are the ultimate beneficiaries.The business model does not directly rely on the speculative 'Ouroboros cycle' that cryptocurrencies are known for. This is where many so-called 'fundamental investors' fall into traps, as trading volumes can drop by 90% in a bear market, and then drop another 90%, rendering any price-to-earnings (PE) or price-to-sales (PS) valuations meaningless. Furthermore, calculating annualized figures based solely on a protocol's 'good' revenue data for one month when its market share and momentum are at their peak is the most foolish behavior.Trust in the management's execution capability. Like any business, you need to conduct due diligence and believe that the team behind the protocol has the ability to realize its vision, defeating competitors through technological barriers or excellent execution.So far, I believe only a handful of protocols meet these criteria, and I will buy these tokens at the right time. But for the other 99.9% of tokens, they can only be classified as 'concentration camps'."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Wall Street Journal, informed sources revealed that under a plan expected to be announced by U.S. President Trump later on Monday evening local time, TSMC (TSM.N) plans to invest $100 billion in the U.S. over the next four years to build chip manufacturing plants. This investment will be used to construct cutting-edge chip manufacturing facilities. This expansion plan will promote the long-term goal of revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor industry.TSMC established its presence in Arizona in 2020, when the company announced it would invest $12 billion to build a chip factory there. Since then, the company's ambitions for the site have rapidly expanded, with two additional factories built at the same location, totaling an investment of $65 billion. The company's first factory began mass production at the end of last year.U.S. White House officials later confirmed that President Trump and chip manufacturer TSMC (TSM.N) will make an announcement at 1:30 PM Eastern Time (2:30 AM Beijing time tomorrow), expected to announce TSMC's $100 billion investment in the U.S.

ChainCatcher message, Santiment posted on the X platform that due to the Bybit hack causing a stir in the crypto space, along with concerning news this week regarding LIBRA and other contributing factors, the crowd is exhibiting extreme fear as Bitcoin plummets.According to sentiment scores, the negative sentiment in the crypto community is similar to the situation before the price rebound on February 17 and 18. While nothing is certain, and a major exchange hack could have a lasting impact on the crowd's perception, remember that the market almost always moves in the opposite direction of retail traders' expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport's latest weekly report "How Liquidity and Macroeconomic Indicators Affect Bitcoin" shows that several macroeconomic and liquidity factors are influencing the price trend of Bitcoin. The report focuses on four key factors:First, the shift in U.S. debt issuance strategy. During Yellen's tenure, the U.S. Treasury preferred to issue short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and issued fewer long-term bonds, which suppressed the rise in Treasury yields, reduced the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, and drove funds toward Bitcoin and stocks. However, the new Treasury Secretary Scot Bessent may increase the issuance of long-term Treasury bonds, which could push yields higher, tighten liquidity, and weaken demand for risk assets.Second, the trend of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As an indicator of the strength of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, a stronger DXY often indicates tightening global liquidity, reducing the attractiveness of risk assets like Bitcoin.Third, the impact of inflation data. CPI and PCE are core indicators that the Federal Reserve focuses on, and a cooling of inflation may prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, affecting market liquidity and risk appetite.Fourth, changes in global money supply (M2). The cessation of M2 contraction at the end of 2023 helped Bitcoin break through $40,000. The report suggests that a moderate growth of M2 and controlled inflation are most favorable for Bitcoin's performance, but if M2 grows too quickly, it may trigger rising inflation, forcing the Fed to tighten its policy.

ChainCatcher news, according to a post by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the demand for Bitcoin ETFs has slowed down but remains in a net inflow state.He stated that the current bull market cycle will continue until there is a noticeable outflow of ETF funds, while sustained net outflow demand will signal the beginning of a bear market cycle.Ki Young Ju emphasized that in the market, only supply and demand truly matter; other factors are just market noise.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the Ethereum options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, which may be related to the anticipated Pectra upgrade set to launch in early April.Looking back at history, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, with ETH surging before the upgrade and then retreating; while the initial performance of the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 was pessimistic due to supply concerns, ETH rose 30% after selling pressure did not materialize. The current market may be positioning for the Pectra upgrade, with options volatility leaning bullish after March 28, indicating potential upward expectations.However, the weakness in the altcoin market poses a restraining factor, with the LIBRA collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap nearing historical highs. The continued recovery of altcoins relies on substantial progress in real applications and network development, rather than just speculative funding.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April.Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH fell back after rising over 100% from the June low post-upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months.As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards call options after March 28—this could lay the groundwork for the next thematic play in the crypto market following the Trump tariff turmoil.One dampening factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share nearing historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development to sustain a recovery, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, the US stock market continues to rise under the influence of multiple factors. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January was slightly higher than market expectations, but the data shows a downward trend in the prices of some important components. Citigroup analysts expect that this trend may indicate a moderation in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors.On the policy front, although Trump signed an executive order on reciprocal tariffs, he did not immediately impose tariffs on other countries, alleviating market concerns about escalating trade frictions. Analysts point out that despite facing inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties, investors still tend to focus on positive factors such as economic resilience and corporate profit growth. On that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.91%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.30%.

ChainCatcher news, Binance co-founder He Yi stated in a community Space that the listing of coins on Binance will consider multiple factors. Taking the previously popular AI16Z as an example, by the time this coin was under consideration, its market capitalization was already large. Internally, there are concerns about whether it would be a "top at launch," leading to differing opinions within Binance regarding the listing.In addition, some meme coins are issued by token issuing groups, and Binance will also be cautious about listing such projects.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the sell-off triggered by the artificial intelligence industry is not a substantial, lasting change. He pointed out that artificial intelligence is an important factor in the development of the stock market, but it is more focused on the macroeconomy. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos pointed out that Trump is considering a bolder tariff policy, which may influence the Fed's decision-making. A key question is whether rising prices will trigger public expectations for higher inflation, which will directly affect whether the Fed resumes rate cuts.Looking back to 2019, Trump's trade war prompted the Fed to cut rates, but at that time, tariffs did not lead to significant inflation. However, this time the Fed may respond differently, as the U.S. has just experienced high inflation.Experts predict that if tariffs are increased, the Fed is expected to be more inclined to oppose and may maintain higher interest rate levels.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X stating: Ethereum has lost its core narrative. It is no longer the "ultrasound money," the center of killer DApps, or a developer-centric blockchain. Only market-driven narratives can unite the crypto community. Without these narratives, promotion is meaningless. This seems to be something Vitalik is not aware of.