ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitfinex analysts indicate that the Bitcoin miners' Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) remains very optimistic, hovering around 0.5, which suggests that miners are still in a strong position, holding substantial unrealized profits, and are inclined to hold onto their Bitcoin at this stage.In the broader market, some traders are attempting to buy December 2025 ETH call options at prices as high as $11,000.

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex analysts indicate that the upward momentum of Bitcoin depends on how to balance the demand from short-term holders (STH) and the supply from long-term holders (LTH).Analysts state that the supply from STH has approached 3.28 million Bitcoins, a level historically associated with the peak regions of bull markets. This suggests that retail interest is rising. However, the increase in profit-taking by long-term holders puts pressure on Bitcoin's upward momentum, potentially hindering further price increases. Over the past two weeks, the supply entering the Bitcoin market from the LTH group has remained stable, and the lack of spot demand to absorb this supply may lead to further price declines.In simple terms, Bitfinex analysts believe that only if the buying power of short-term holders further absorbs the selling pressure from long-term holders can the price continue to rise.

ChainCatcher news, November 7, Bitfinex analysts expect that after Trump's election as President of the United States, the crypto market will welcome a "new wave of hope."As the industry anticipates a less hostile attitude from federal agencies towards cryptocurrencies, this trend is expected to facilitate more capital inflow into the Web3 space. Analysts stated, "We expect that in the short term, a significant amount of capital will be released for the crypto sector. Furthermore, this may influence the approach taken by the U.S. SEC, which is widely regarded as having a hostile stance towards the crypto industry."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts stated, "Although the market generally expects increased volatility before the U.S. elections on November 5, many market participants seem hesitant and have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. However, significant volatility is still expected in the short term after the elections, which could 'drive major movements,' or if it does not occur, it may be a warning sign of a 'deeper correction' for Bitcoin in a shorter time frame."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts stated that depending on whether the Federal Reserve's rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, market behavior may oscillate between bullish optimism and cautious risk reduction in response to significant macroeconomic adjustments. This expected volatility may be reflected in the fund flows of the ETF and perpetual markets, where fluctuations may intensify.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bitfinex analysts stated that the U.S. presidential candidate debate between Harris and Trump sparked risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market, marking a "sell the news" event, with risk-averse trading behavior intensifying after the debate.Analysts emphasized that Trump's victory is generally seen as favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Considering the recent news regarding his DeFi project and his campaign promise to remove SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, his involvement in the cryptocurrency space is now quite evident.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere estimates that the likelihood of an economic recession this year is 40%.Bitfinex analysts state that during an economic recession, Bitcoin can act as a "safe-haven asset." Although the overall cryptocurrency market may be affected, altcoins in the broader crypto market may be impacted due to decreased liquidity and risk appetite. Investors may become more risk-averse, shifting funds from high-risk assets like small cryptocurrencies to safer investments.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex analysts indicate that the ever-expanding U.S. debt may solidify Bitcoin's position, "The $35 trillion U.S. national debt highlights the importance of Bitcoin as a 'hard currency' and could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's next upward cycle... This may prompt investors to seek other stores of value like Bitcoin, which are often seen as a hedge against economic inefficiency."

ChainCatcher news, according to Crypto Briefing, Bitfinex's derivatives head Jag Kooner stated that the non-farm payroll (NFP) data to be released on Friday (8:30 PM Beijing time) could stabilize Bitcoin prices or, in the worst-case scenario, lead to further declines. The cautious tone of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes suggests that clearer economic data is needed before any interest rate cuts, which may help keep Bitcoin prices stable or, in the worst case, result in a slight drop.Kooner analyzed that investors might also view the lack of immediate rate cuts as a sign of ongoing economic uncertainty, which could reduce their risk appetite for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Regarding the health of the labor market, the slowdown in job growth indicates that the labor market is cooling, consistent with the Fed's observations of slowing economic activity. However, a stable unemployment rate suggests that while job growth is slowing, the overall employment situation remains stable. Therefore, the non-farm payroll report leaves room for two scenarios. The first scenario is that job growth is weaker than expected, which could increase expectations for future rate cuts, potentially boosting Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative assets under the expectation of loose monetary policy. Conversely, the second scenario is that if the job market proves to be more resilient, Bitcoin will face downward pressure.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bitfinex analysts stated, "The Winklevoss twins, prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space, are supporting Trump's campaign by donating $2 million in Bitcoin. This move indicates that Trump is increasingly seen as an innovation-friendly candidate within the cryptocurrency and traditional finance (TradFi) communities."Bitfinex analysts believe that a victory for Trump in November would signify a shift in the regulatory environment for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, becoming more favorable. "During the campaign, Trump has shown support for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, contrasting with the current administration's more cautious and regulatory-heavy approach. A Trump administration may prioritize establishing a clear and innovation-friendly regulatory framework that encourages innovation and investment in the cryptocurrency sector."However, according to Joe Biden's former senior advisor Moe Vela, the debate audience is more concerned with which candidate is physically, mentally, and possibly morally more fit to be president. "This debate is more about a comparison of character, showcasing different leadership styles, and two eighty-year-old men trying to prove their vitality, energy, and viability."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the U.S. presidential election television debate between Biden and Trump will take place on June 27. Bitfinex analysts suggest that political meme coins inspired by Trump and Biden, or "Politifi" tokens (such as Ethereum-based Super Trump and Maga, as well as Solana-based Jeo Boden and Doland Tremp), may experience significant price volatility during and after the debate.Bitfinex analysts stated that "Politifi" tokens could see substantial fluctuations during and after the debate, as these tokens have already become speculative assets regarding election outcomes. The analysts also added that it is important to note that Trump has positioned himself as the "crypto president."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, over the past nine days, the holdings of large Bitcoin holders have shown a negative value. Bitfinex analysts indicate that long-term Bitcoin holders and large investors seem to be the driving force behind the recent Bitcoin sell-off, whether on exchanges or through over-the-counter trading.Historically, long-term holders tend to gradually sell their Bitcoin during bull markets, especially when the market enters a consolidation phase.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, data tracked by Bitfinex analysts shows that since the Bitcoin blockchain implemented the mining reward halving on April 20, the monthly VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) has plummeted from 15% to 2.5%.It is reported that the VRP calculation is based on the gap between Volmex's 30-day implied volatility index for Bitcoin (BVIV) and the 1-month realized volatility (VBRV).Analysts stated, "The significant narrowing of the VRP indicates that market expectations are being recalibrated to adapt to a more stable and predictable environment post-halving. The market consensus seems to be that future volatility may be lower than previously expected after the halving. In other words, uncertainty has diminished, and market participants anticipate a more predictable market condition."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex expect that the daily supply of newly minted Bitcoin (BTC) may drop to $30 million following the recent Bitcoin block reward halving. This figure is about one-fifth of the average daily inflow of spot ETFs.Analysts pointed out that as the daily issuance declines after the halving, the new market supply (newly mined BTC) is expected to decrease from the current $40-50 million to $30 million per day. In contrast, although net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have slowed down in recent weeks and even turned into net outflows, their average daily net inflow still exceeds $150 million.Additionally, on-chain data shows that investors are increasingly holding their Bitcoin directly, which weakens the supply side of the market. Bitfinex analysts stated that outflows from Bitcoin exchanges have reached their highest level since January 2023, indicating that many investors are anticipating price increases and are moving their holdings to cold wallets.Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is $66,660, having risen over 5% since the halving, contrary to market expectations of a price correction.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, this week's Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are either continuing to reduce their holdings or transferring assets off trading platforms, leading to a significant decrease in the supply of Bitcoin that has not moved in a year.Bitfinex analysts stated: "The underlying dynamics of Bitcoin's price are based on this week's halving. As the halving approaches, we have seen a significant increase in Bitcoin flowing out of centralized trading platforms, and the supply of Bitcoin that has not moved in a year has dropped to an 18-month low."The report also added that the current actions of Bitcoin holders are similar to those seen in December 2020, a period before a significant rise in the Bitcoin market. Analysts added: "This pattern suggests that we may be entering a similar growth phase."

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex analysts indicate that the potential market value of the crypto economy could rise to $3.2 trillion in the context of historical pullbacks and market fluctuations. The latest Bitfinex Alpha report states that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has shifted to "extreme greed," suggesting that Bitcoin is at a mid-cycle peak in a bull market, indicating that the market is in a vibrant phase. Bitfinex researchers explain that the growing interest of institutional investors in crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, is crucial. The highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF serves as a catalyst, potentially redirecting some funds into higher-risk crypto assets. Nevertheless, Bitfinex strategists state that Bitcoin is expected to maintain its favored position in institutional portfolios, especially in the first half of 2024.