ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley expects that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at this week's meeting, and it is anticipated that the bank will not change its policy stance immediately. The Bank of Japan and Governor Kazuo Ueda may emphasize the uncertainty of global economic growth and inflation trends, indicating the need for patience before considering further policy changes, while reinforcing the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Morgan Stanley predicts that due to the negative impact of tariffs and a tight labor market leading to rising inflation rates, the growth rate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.9% to 1.5%, and for 2026 from 1.3% to 1.2%.Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with two more rate cuts anticipated starting in 2026, later than market expectations. Goldman Sachs has also lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.7% and raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, this week, gold-backed cryptocurrencies performed poorly as their prices fell sharply after rising more than 10% so far this year.Gold-backed tokens, including Paxos gold (PAXG) and Tether gold (XAUT), dropped about 1% over the past week, trading at around $2,900, while the overall cryptocurrency market saw a rebound. The CoinDesk 20 index rose 5.7% during the same period, and the broader MarketVector Digital Assets 100 index (MVDA) increased by 3.4%.Analysts pointed out that as more people speculate that Trump's threatened new tariffs are merely a negotiating tool, gold prices have declined, impacting the prices of safe-haven assets including gold and the dollar.However, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley, the recent drop in gold may still provide an "opportunity" for those seeking a hedge against the backdrop of global reflation, geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal spending. They recently raised their forecast for gold prices.Citi strategists recently raised their short-term gold price target to $3,000 and increased their average forecast for this year to $2,900. Meanwhile, UBS has raised its 12-month gold target to $3,000 per ounce.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick revealed that the bank is working with the U.S. Treasury and other regulatory agencies to explore providing cryptocurrency trading services. Regarding phenomena like the TRUMP coin in the market, Pick stated that this reflects market liquidity manifesting in different ways, with the broader question being whether these have matured and if crypto assets have reached "escape velocity."Pick emphasized that time is the best friend; the longer the trading duration, the more likely perceptions will become reality. As a heavily regulated financial institution, Morgan Stanley will collaborate with the Treasury and regulatory agencies to explore how to conduct cryptocurrency business safely.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick stated that the bank will work with U.S. regulators to explore whether it can engage more deeply in the cryptocurrency market.Pick said, "For us, the key question is whether, as a heavily regulated financial institution, we can act as a dealer. We will collaborate with the Treasury and other regulators to explore how to provide this service in a safe manner."

ChainCatcher news, according to market news, Morgan Stanley's trading service E-Trade is exploring the provision of cryptocurrency trading.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson has shared his latest views. He pointed out that the breadth of the U.S. stock market in December hit a historic low, coinciding with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking the 4.5% threshold, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not be able to provide the easing policies that the market expects.Wilson analyzed that the current disconnection between market breadth and prices is similar to that of 1999, primarily due to ample liquidity. As the scale of reverse repos (RRP) shrinks from its peak of $2.5 trillion, and with the Federal Reserve potentially making slight rate cuts, liquidity may tighten in early 2024. He advised investors to continue focusing on high-quality stocks, as unprofitable growth stocks and low-quality cyclical stocks may face significant impacts.Wilson stated that due to the lack of mean reversion in recent years, investors are more inclined to track price trends, leading to extreme concentration in the market, and the "quality" factor has become a widely used stock selection criterion.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley stated that it expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2025, each by 25 basis points, whereas the previous forecast was for three cuts of 25 basis points each.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley expects that the strength of the dollar will peak by the end of the year, after which it will enter a bearish trend, slowly declining in 2025. The bank believes that, given the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will take a gradual approach to easing, the yen and the Australian dollar have the greatest potential for appreciation next year.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley stated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both November and December, and will raise its assessment of economic growth while continuing to acknowledge progress on inflation. It is expected that Powell will not commit to the scale or pace of future rate cuts, as decisions will depend on data. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael D Zezas stated that investors' main goal during the U.S. election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence regarding the election results and their market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He noted that the rising probability of a Republican victory implied by the prediction markets has led some to expect a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes this scenario is possible, but not the most likely outcome. Neither candidate appears to be a clear favorite to win the Electoral College, which could lead to a repeat of the prolonged vote counting seen in 2020. Given the poor historical performance of early voting data, Morgan Stanley does not place much importance on these figures and advises against overinterpreting short-term market movements. The firm stated that the market's short-term reactions to elections are often noisy and may not indicate mid-term trends. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com News, Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen's latest research report points out that the 2024 U.S. presidential election could trigger significant market volatility, with major risks stemming from vote counting delays, economic uncertainty, and changes in voter sentiment. The analysts emphasize that while political outcomes and corresponding policy changes may affect corporate earnings, business and economic cycles are the key factors influencing market performance.The report specifically warns that the tight race in key swing states and the uncertainty surrounding mail-in ballot counting times could result in the final outcome taking days or even weeks to determine. Additionally, unexpected political events such as the "October surprise" could influence the election dynamics during the campaign's final stretch. The analysts advise investors to focus on long-term strategies and avoid overreacting to market fluctuations caused by the election.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson stated that while some believe a Trump victory would pose a negative factor for economic growth and the stock market, a Harris victory could lead to disappointment on Wall Street. Polls indicate that the likelihood of this scenario occurring is 50%. However, Wilson pointed out the risk of a market decline that could also come with a Trump victory. He said, "In certain market areas, if they are already overcrowded and pricing in upside potential, then the 'sell the news' phenomenon could make them vulnerable." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin Magazine, the latest documents from the SEC show that Morgan Stanley holds a Bitcoin spot ETF worth $272.1 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to market news, OpenAI has established a $4 billion revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Santander Bank, Wells Fargo, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, UBS, and HSBC.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to support keeping interest rates unchanged with a 6:3 voting ratio. However, the policy wording may see a dovish adjustment, hinting at possible action in November."Considering all the data since August and the scale of the current restrictions, we believe that the market pricing for a rate cut in September should be slightly higher. Nevertheless, we also think the likelihood of a rate cut will not exceed 30%." Morgan Stanley expects the scale of the Bank of England's QT next year to be £100 billion, up from a previous estimate of £90 billion, but still believes the risks are tilted to the downside. "November is a key meeting for the Bank of England this year, and we expect it to lay the groundwork for a faster pace of rate cuts, as the anti-inflation momentum in service prices is strengthening. We expect rate cuts in November and December, with the bank rate reaching 3.25% by August next year."

ChainCatcher news, compiled by Jinshi, includes predictions from financial institutions such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Scotiabank, DBS Bank, and Citibank that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, while the dot plot will become the focus of the market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 reports, the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that for the week ending August 17, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 4,000, reaching 232,000 after seasonal adjustment, slightly exceeding the expected 230,000.Chris Larkin from Morgan Stanley E*Trade stated that the latest initial jobless claims indicate that the labor market is slowing but remains resilient, which should help the Federal Reserve begin to cut interest rates in September.

ChainCatcher news reports that HC Wainwright analysts indicate that by the end of the second quarter of 2024, the institutional holding ratio of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States will rise to 24%. According to the latest released 13-F filings and data compiled by Coinbase, this ratio is higher than the previous quarter's 21.4%.Despite a challenging market environment, the total assets under management of these ETFs decreased by 13% to $51.8 billion, but still achieved growth due to the decline in Bitcoin prices and new institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs (holding $412 million in ETF shares) and Morgan Stanley (holding $188 million).

ChainCatcher news, according to regulatory documents released on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have collectively purchased over $600 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the second quarter of 2024.Morgan Stanley favors BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF, disclosing a holding of 5.5 million shares, valued at $188 million as of June 30. The bank also holds a small amount of Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB.Z) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.P) shares.