ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LPL Financial analyst Jeffrey Roach stated that the average monthly job growth in the U.S. private sector in 2024 is expected to be 149,000, down from 192,000 in 2023, with a further decline anticipated in 2025. In December, non-farm payrolls surged by 256,000, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased (against the backdrop of potential mass deportations of illegal immigrants), raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may even need to raise interest rates. However, the data may be more optimistic than it appears.Roach said, "More than 16% of the non-labor force is foreign-born, including undocumented immigrants, so tightening immigration policies may not be as harmful to the economy as some suggest." "Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged."

ChainCatcher message, financial website Forexlive analyst Justin Low: The trend in the U.S. labor market is clear; after a strong rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been softening. The U.S. economy has remained quite resilient, and the labor market has proven this—despite the slowdown. As the Federal Reserve seeks to pause the interest rate cut cycle, this will be a key area to watch in the coming months.If the labor market conditions align with inflation data, it will validate the Fed's outlook of remaining cautious while waiting for the effects of Trump's policies to take hold. However, if the data worsens, there will be reason to worry about whether the Fed will cut rates again at the beginning of the new year. Before the weekend arrives, price fluctuations (if any) will determine broader market sentiment. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that the employment data did not "change the outlook for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in two weeks."Additionally, Bill Eigen, a bond expert at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned the market ahead of the Fed's next meeting that the room for rate cuts may not be as large as it imagines, and central banks should be cautious about cutting rates again in December. He added that this is due to some signs indicating that the U.S. economy is beginning to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher-than-expected inflation data from last month, and record stock prices.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, after the release of the U.S. August ADP employment data today, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in September decreased from 45% to 37%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 63%.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that Bitcoin is about to face its most challenging month, September. It noted that historically, the return rate in September has been negative. This year adds extra pressure, including the outlook for the U.S. tech industry following Nvidia's earnings forecast, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election debate (with Harris facing Trump). This September will have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movement. From 2022 until the second quarter of 2024, there has been a strong correlation between Nvidia and Bitcoin. However, recently, while the AI rebound has led to a surge in Nvidia's stock, Bitcoin has not kept pace. Both asset prices are breaking new lows, indicating an increase in consolidation depth. The market is about to respond to the U.S. employment data to be released on September 6.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor stated that last week, due to a technical failure, the U.S. government failed to timely share key non-farm (revised) data. At the same time, he acknowledged that staff had provided this data to callers before its official release. In the future, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is overseen by the Department of Labor, will release data through multiple platforms, including social media, to ensure that the data is available at the time of publication. The Department of Labor spokesperson stated in an email that the department has implemented a new policy requiring employees handling data inquiries to share data with clients only after senior officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm that the public can access the data widely. The spokesperson mentioned that on August 21 local time, the preliminary benchmark revision of the non-farm data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed by more than half an hour, forcing staff to manually upload the data. According to the spokesperson, although these figures were visible to Bureau of Labor Statistics employees internally on the website at 10:10 AM Washington time, the data was not available to external network users until around 10:32 AM. The spokesperson also indicated that the situation became more complicated due to a lack of communication within the bureau on how to respond to public inquiries. Because the 10 AM embargo had already passed, some Bureau of Labor Statistics employees provided the information to those who requested the data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of U.S. employment data for the upcoming monetary easing cycle.Stephen Stanley of Santander Bank stated in a report that this increases the significance of the employment data for August, which will be released on September 6. He mentioned that after the unexpectedly low job growth in July, "the growth in August is not entirely shocking. More broadly, Powell and others at the Fed have recently begun to express concerns about the cooling conditions in the labor market, so stronger data in August could dispel the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut next month." Stanley believes that the employment report may be more critical than the August core CPI data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that before the September meeting, the Federal Reserve can wait for more data. The Federal Reserve's responsibility is not to react to one month's employment data.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the Federal Reserve has been in a tightening mode. Such strict measures are only necessary when there are concerns about the economy overheating. Currently, employment data is below expectations, but there are no signs of an economic recession yet.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CIBC Capital Markets economist Katherine Judge stated that it makes sense to expect three rate cuts by the end of this year. This report is clearly in line with expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and increases the likelihood that the economy will need three rate cuts this year, rather than the two we currently expect. However, more important indicators, including inflation data, still remain before the Federal Reserve makes a rate cut decision.