ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, as the AP, Fox, and NBC announced Trump's election, the Polymarket U.S. presidential election contract is set to end on Wednesday morning local time.

ChainCatcher news, on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the cumulative trading volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election has exceeded $3.6 billion.As of November 6, Republican candidate Trump has a trading volume of nearly $1.48 billion on Polymarket, while Democratic candidate Harris has a trading volume of $1.01 billion. This week, the trading volume for the U.S. presidential election accounts for 91.2% of the total weekly trading volume on the Polymarket platform.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, the 2024 U.S. presidential election has set a record for the highest campaign spending in history. The Trump and Harris camps have raised nearly $4.2 billion in total, with actual spending reaching $3.5 billion.The report shows that as of mid-October, the fundraising scale of the two candidates' campaign teams, external support groups, and party committees is basically on par.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the decision office predicts Trump will win the U.S. presidential election.

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BTC suddenly surged today, possibly in response to the U.S. presidential election.Eric Balchunas added, "If anyone thinks Bitcoin is not a good indicator to watch today, please tell me why. In my view, BTC seems to be a clean indicator because it's a topic in the campaign, while stocks and bonds are less important, but I'm open to other thoughts."

ChainCatcher news, although the Federal Reserve has been trying to stay as far away from politics as possible in 2024, Tuesday's U.S. presidential election is crucial for the Fed and its chairman Powell. The next U.S. president will fill several vacant positions, and Powell's term as Fed chairman will also end in May 2026, meaning either Trump or Harris will be able to choose the next leader of the Federal Reserve.Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital and historian researching the Fed and politics, pointed out in a recent interview that this is "a significant crossroads for the Federal Reserve." He added that if the Trump team wins, they will clearly be "very proactive." During his presidency, Trump frequently attacked Powell and openly pushed the central bank to act according to his ideas, even suggesting negative interest rates, and Trump has hinted that if he wins a second term, he might do even more.Federal Reserve policymakers will also have the opportunity to discuss these implications this week, as the FOMC will hold meetings in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday and Thursday. The main agenda for officials is whether to implement a second rate cut in 2024, with the market expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but political factors will certainly linger in their minds.

ChainCatcher News, just after midnight Eastern Time on November 5, voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, were the first to cast their ballots, marking the official start of voting for the 60th U.S. presidential election.

ChainCatcher message, as of November 4, 12:15 PM Eastern Time, the betting amount on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket for the U.S. presidential election has exceeded $3.13 billion. Republican candidate Donald Trump has a betting amount of $1.2 billion. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has a betting amount of $782.5 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to monitoring by lookonchain, historically, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise within one month before and after each U.S. presidential election.Since October 5, 2024, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 10.99%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the United States will begin the 2024 presidential election next Tuesday (November 5). Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are neck and neck. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion in long positions in dollars ahead of the U.S. election vote. Currently, Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the dollar at least in the short term. Hedge funds and other speculative traders expect that the potential impact of the election on demand for safe-haven assets and the direction of tariffs will further boost the dollar.The market generally believes that Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes will benefit corporate profits, so if he wins, it will boost U.S. stocks. On the other hand, Harris's potential tax increase policies are seen as relatively bearish for the stock market. However, Bank of America and Citigroup recently presented opposing views. Analyst Marc Chandler stated, "Many of the positive possibilities for next week have already been priced in, so the risks tend to be on the downside. Gold recently hit an all-time high but failed to break through $2800. Notably, when the U.S. stock market fell on October 31, gold also experienced significant selling, almost as if it was being liquidated to meet margin requirements."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Darius Sit, co-founder and chief investment officer of Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital, believes that the impact of the world's largest asset management company BlackRock entering the crypto space is more significant than the U.S. presidential election.Although support for Republican candidate Trump may bring short-term market volatility, Sit pointed out that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has brought cryptocurrencies into the mainstream investment arena. Sit stated that when BlackRock CEO Larry Fink publicly declared Bitcoin as a "store of value" on CNBC, it marked an elevation of cryptocurrencies' status in the U.S. investment market.Additionally, Sit noted that despite Trump's promise to create a more crypto-friendly policy during his campaign, the growth potential of the global market remains to be seen. QCP has recently expanded its business in Abu Dhabi, where regulators view digital assets as part of the capital markets, providing a stable market environment.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, Robinhood is entering the prediction market, announcing on Monday that users can start trading contracts just eight days before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.The company stated that users can begin trading contracts for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump starting Monday, as long as they meet certain conditions (including being a U.S. citizen). This trading is offered through Robinhood's derivatives division and ForecastEx.Robinhood stated, "We believe event contracts provide people with real-time decision-making tools, unlocking a new asset class that allows the public to better engage with ongoing events."

ChainCatcher message, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the current probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is 64.7%, while the probability of Harris winning the election is 35.4%, with the gap between the two widening again.In addition, the total amount of bets on the U.S. election on the platform has exceeded $2.5 billion.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, a trader on Polymarket caused a brief mispricing in the 2024 U.S. presidential election market by making a large purchase of Trump "victory" contracts. The trader spent over $3 million in a short period to buy 4.5 million contracts, temporarily pushing the probability of Trump's victory to 99%, far above the actual market rate of 63% at the time.This pricing anomaly was caused by Polymarket's on-chain order book mechanism. In a $275,000 order, the trader executed at 99% odds, while other orders were executed at 65.9 cents and 62.7 cents, respectively. Polymarket's dynamic order book adjusts prices with each transaction, which can lead to significant slippage for large trades, temporarily distorting the actual odds.As of now, the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 63%, while Kamala Harris's odds stand at 36%. The market's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $2.2 billion, making it the largest market by trading volume on the platform.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the betting amount on the U.S. presidential election results on Polymarket has exceeded $2 billion. As of October 17, Republican candidate Trump has a betting amount of nearly $608 million on Polymarket, with a winning probability of 62.3%; Democratic candidate Harris has a betting amount of $405 million, with a winning probability of 37.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, based on data from the CFTC website, the prediction market Kalshi has launched more than a dozen event contracts related to U.S. political outcomes. As of October 16, Kalshi's flagship market "Who will win the presidential election?" has reached a total betting amount of $14 million since its launch on October 7.Kalshi's scale still lags far behind the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which has nearly $2 billion in betting amounts related to the U.S. presidential election.