A certain Polymarket trader made a large purchase of Trump victory contracts, leading to a brief mispricing in the U.S. presidential election market

2024-10-25 15:54:17

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ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, a trader on Polymarket caused a brief mispricing in the 2024 U.S. presidential election market by making a large purchase of Trump "victory" contracts. The trader spent over $3 million in a short period to buy 4.5 million contracts, temporarily pushing the probability of Trump's victory to 99%, far above the actual market rate of 63% at the time.

This pricing anomaly was caused by Polymarket's on-chain order book mechanism. In a $275,000 order, the trader executed at 99% odds, while other orders were executed at 65.9 cents and 62.7 cents, respectively. Polymarket's dynamic order book adjusts prices with each transaction, which can lead to significant slippage for large trades, temporarily distorting the actual odds.

As of now, the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 63%, while Kamala Harris's odds stand at 36%. The market's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $2.2 billion, making it the largest market by trading volume on the platform.

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Polymarket Trump presidential election

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