ChainCatcher news, dYdX has launched a prediction contract market regarding the U.S. elections on the platform.Users can bet "yes" or "no" in the TRUMPWIN-USD market, with the final settlement price for each option being either $0 or $1, and the buy-in price at the time of betting being the cost price. It is worth mentioning that users can go long or short with up to 20x leverage (correct predictions can yield 20 times the profit, but conversely, a 5% adverse movement could lead to liquidation), which offers greater capital flexibility compared to traditional prediction markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick released a report stating that Bitcoin is showing upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. presidential election.Kendrick pointed out that multiple factors are driving this potential price increase, including a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, a revival of interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and an increased probability of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election.According to the Polymarket prediction platform, Trump's chances have risen to 56.3%. If Trump wins, the probability of the Republican Party simultaneously controlling the Senate and the House of Representatives is 70%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the price of Bitcoin has risen from $62,000 to $65,000. Historical data shows that in the three weeks leading up to the U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin began to rise significantly.From October this year to now, Bitcoin has only increased by 1.2%, far below the average increase of 21% in previous years. Analysts believe that the current price trend is similar to historical patterns, which may indicate a potential rise before the elections. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor market movements.

ChainCatcher news, according to data from Greeks.live, 18,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.91, and the maximum pain point at $62,000, with a notional value of $1.1 billion. 212,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.4, and the maximum pain point at $2,450, with a notional value of $510 million.Cryptocurrency remains weak, with fierce competition around the key level of $60,000, and ETH is also near the long-term support line of $2,300. A market reversal could happen at any moment. The market performance in the first two weeks of this fourth quarter has been poor, and the options market is also relatively sluggish, with the current open interest in options having fallen to a new low since 2023.However, a sluggish market also breeds new trading opportunities. The at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC on November 8 is only 50%, making it very suitable for building some medium to long-term bullish positions at low levels. This week, large bullish trades are gradually becoming active, and there is a high possibility of market movement around the U.S. elections.

ChainCatcher news, according to official sources, the latest report from Coinbase titled "Ten Things About Crypto Voters" shows that as the U.S. elections approach, crypto voters will become an important voting demographic.A third-party study commissioned by Coinbase and conducted by Morning Consult found that the crypto voter demographic exhibits high diversity in age, gender, and political affiliation, but they generally believe that the financial system needs reform and that crypto technology can drive this change. These voters actively seek candidates who support cryptocurrency and advocate for reasonable crypto regulation policies to protect consumers and promote innovation.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that election gambling related to the U.S. elections is about to see explosive growth, and has requested the appellate court to continue suspending Kalshi's political prediction market while the agency's appeal is still pending.In a document submitted on Saturday, the CFTC stated that the district court's order has been interpreted by Kalshi and others as the "open season for election gambling," referring to a ruling on September 6 that determined the CFTC should not block the company from offering contracts on which party will control both houses of Congress.The agency noted that following this ruling, Wall Street giant Interactive Brokers announced it would offer contracts for the presidential election through its CFTC-regulated subsidiary. The CFTC indicated that unless the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia extends the suspension of Kalshi contracts during the appeal, other CFTC-regulated exchanges will follow suit.The CFTC reiterated that "the surge in election gambling on U.S. futures exchanges will harm the public interest." These harms include market manipulation and undermining the integrity of elections.

ChainCatcher news, the crypto political advocacy group "Stand With Crypto" will launch a multi-state tour on September 4 to influence the 2024 election, starting in Arizona. The organization has attracted over 1 million online registrations, aiming to convert these digital asset supporters into voting constituents.The organization's Executive Director Logan Dobson stated, "There are a large number of people interested in cryptocurrency, and our mission is to use campaign-like strategies to motivate them to vote. Crypto voters are already quite enthusiastic about this election."It is reported that "Stand With Crypto" has attracted nearly 27,000 Arizona crypto supporters to register on its website, and the organization's research indicates that over 80% of them are likely registered voters. In the 2020 election, the vote margin between Trump and Biden in the state was less than 11,000 votes.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, research firm Bernstein stated in a report that "the initial reaction of Bitcoin as a 'safe-haven' asset is not surprising, as this pattern often occurs in the Bitcoin market (previously seen during the flash crash in March 2020), especially since it is the only market that trades on weekends. We remain calm."Analysts added, "We do not see any incremental negative factors here. If the usual response to concerns about a U.S. economic recession is interest rate cuts and increased monetary liquidity, we expect the prices of 'hard assets' like Bitcoin (digital gold) to rise."However, Bernstein analysts indicated that Bitcoin remains a "Trump trade," as the market tends to support the pro-crypto stance of this U.S. presidential candidate. Analysts stated, "It is not surprising that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies performed poorly when the odds between Trump and Harris on Polymarket narrowed. We expect the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to remain range-bound before the U.S. elections, trading influenced by catalysts such as presidential debates and the final election results."Overall, Bernstein expects the crypto market to react to macroeconomic and election signals in the third quarter. However, analysts predict that if the broader stock market recovers due to the Federal Reserve's response, the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets will follow this trend.

ChainCatcher news, the co-founder of the decentralized trading platform Drift Protocol, Cindy, announced the launch of a U.S. election prediction market. Drift stated that the reasons for launching this market include: prediction markets are places for truth settlement; they can serve as platforms to observe public trends and opinion changes; based on a fully open-source blockchain, they cannot be manipulated; and the potential impact of political meme coins.The first version will be managed by the security committee of Drift DAO for market launch and arbitration, with plans to introduce a permissionless market in the second version.

ChainCatcher news, the cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit announced new options on Tuesday, allowing traders to effectively manage their Bitcoin and Ethereum positions in light of the U.S. presidential election results on November 4. The new BTC and ETH election expiry options (8 November US ELECTION Expiry) will start trading at 16:00 on July 18.STS Digital senior trader Jeff Anderson stated, "The U.S. election is the focal point for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) and will have a dual impact on fiscal policy and financial stability. Options are an important tool for hedging this uncertainty, so it is a natural move for Deribit to launch this themed product."Laurent Kssis, a crypto ETF expert at CEC Capital, said, "These options will allow traders to make adjustments before, during, and after the election, leaving a three-day buffer after the election results are announced. This is a great way to achieve both leverage and hedge risks."

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute founder and CEO Evgeny Gaevoy posted on X: "Stay calm, the current market is just a seasonal phenomenon of summer. The market will recover in August and September, before the U.S. elections."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's head of foreign exchange and digital asset research, Jeffrey Kendrick, stated, "Bitcoin prices are likely to hit a new high in August and will exceed $100,000 by the day of the U.S. election."Kendrick's prediction depends on whether Joe Biden continues to run for the U.S. presidency—markets believe this scenario favors Trump's victory. Standard Chartered analysts believe Trump "has a positive attitude towards Bitcoin" and point out that the former president's chances of being elected are positively correlated with Bitcoin prices. "The logic here is that under Trump's leadership, regulation and mining will be treated more favorably," Kendrick added.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the digital asset industry has raised $169 million for U.S. campaigns, which has so far supported over 20 congressional candidates in their primary victories for the 2024 elections. The vast majority of the funds are managed through a coordinated group of PACs under Fairshake. The companies behind Fairshake PAC and its affiliates declined to answer questions about their origins or ongoing relationships with the organization. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the crypto industry is spending millions on advertisements that typically do not mention cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto initiated by Coinbase has launched a lobbying organization PAC (Political Action Committee) for the U.S. elections, raising funds from its 440,000 members to support pro-cryptocurrency politicians.It is reported that the raised funds will be used to support bipartisan candidates running for the House and Senate in the November U.S. elections.

ChainCatcher news, according to Fortune, a new report from the consumer rights organization Public Citizen details the extent of donations in the cryptocurrency industry, finding that super PACs (Political Action Committees) related to digital assets have raised over $102 million for the 2024 election, ranking third among all super PACs, with more than half coming from direct corporate spending, primarily provided by Coinbase and Ripple Labs.Additionally, in the six completed primaries where cryptocurrency super PACs intervened, only one crypto-backed candidate lost.

ChainCatcher news, according to Axios, the cryptocurrency industry has raised over $85 million for the 2024 U.S. elections. This funding primarily comes from cryptocurrency companies, executives, and investors, aimed at promoting the legitimacy of the industry.Key donors include Coinbase, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, and Ripple, each donating at least $20 million. The Fairshake Super Political Action Committee (Super PAC) and its affiliated organizations have raised $6 million since the beginning of this year, in addition to the previously publicly confirmed $78 million. The committee has spent over $1 million on television ads supporting pro-cryptocurrency politicians.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Fairshake Super PAC raised $78 million to support crypto-friendly candidates in the U.S. elections, with backing from a16z, Ark, Circle, Ripple, and Coinbase.

ChainCatcher news, according to Yahoo Finance, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that one of the issues facing the crypto industry is the lack of clear regulation. The industry can gain clarity in various ways, such as through the courts, Congress, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).He also believes that there may be a new SEC chairman in 2024. If Gary Gensler is no longer the SEC chairman, it would be beneficial for the crypto industry. Speaking about the 2024 campaign, cryptocurrency could become a "hot topic" in the presidential race, and Coinbase hopes to donate to presidential candidates who support cryptocurrency.