ChainCatcher news, a report released on Wednesday shows that the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, while meeting expectations, rebounded in October compared to September, marking the largest increase since April. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, but market expectations for a rate cut in December have not been dampened.According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower on Wednesday, ending a recent streak of gains. The Dow Jones fell by 0.31%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.38%, ending a seven-day winning streak; most large tech stocks declined, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on Thursday, with an early closure on Friday by three hours. Traders seem to be taking profits on large tech stocks that have performed well this year, leading the Nasdaq to drop by 0.60%, the biggest loser among the three indices.Earlier this week, Bitcoin experienced a pullback as some investors took profits when the price approached a historical milestone. On Wednesday, the crypto market saw a strong rebound, with Bitcoin rising nearly 4.4% in the last 24 hours and Ethereum increasing over 10%, boosting crypto-related stocks, with MicroStrategy up 9.94% and Coinbase up 6.03%.In the forex commodities sector, the market was quiet ahead of Thanksgiving, with the dollar weakening by about 0.9% to reach a two-week low, while non-dollar currencies rose; news that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday may delay production increase plans supported oil prices, with U.S. oil closing slightly lower on Wednesday and Brent crude roughly flat; gold prices rose on Wednesday, but the increase narrowed after data showed stagnation in inflation progress, which suppressed rate cut expectations.Data from recent months suggests that the process of reducing inflation seems to have stalled, which may limit the Fed's room for rate cuts in 2025, but is unlikely to affect the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. The market currently believes that the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has risen to nearly 70%.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. core PCE price index for October has a year-on-year increase of 2.8% (the largest increase since April 2024), expected at 2.80%, with a previous value of 2.70%.The U.S. core PCE price index for October has a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, expected at 0.30%, with a previous value of 0.30%.The U.S. PCE price index for October has a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, expected at 2.30%, with a previous value of 2.10%.The U.S. real personal consumption expenditures for October have a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, expected at 0.2%, with a previous value revised from 0.40% to 0.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the annualized quarterly PCE price index for the United States in the third quarter was revised to 1.5%, the previous value was 1.5%.The annualized quarterly core PCE price index for the United States in the third quarter was revised to 2.1%, expected 2.2%, previous value 2.20%.The actual personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate for the United States in the third quarter was revised to 3.5%, expected 3.7%, previous value 3.7%.

ChainCatcher Message, the "small twist" on the road to falling U.S. inflation is most evident in the core PCE, which has hovered around an annual rate of 2.7% for the past six months.Economists at Bank of America Securities wrote, "Two consecutive months of 0.3% growth (month-over-month) will certainly lead Fed participants to reassess their inflation and policy outlook."Nevertheless, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but given the strong economic activity and persistent inflation, the rate-cutting cycle seems to be shorter."

ChainCatcher message, since peaking two years ago, inflationary pressures have significantly decreased, but the pace of improvement has slowed in recent months. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price pressures. The Fed's goal is to keep the PCE inflation rate around 2% in the long term to maintain a healthy economy.According to economists' forecasts, the PCE price index is expected to rise 0.20% month-on-month and 2.30% year-on-year in October. The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.30% month-on-month and 2.80% year-on-year. Although economists expect both indicators to rise compared to September, analysts believe that price pressures are still improving. Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that a higher reading in October "will not disrupt the long-term trend."It is worth noting that due to Daylight Saving Time and the Thanksgiving holiday, this PCE data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, rather than the usual 20:00 on Thursday.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's latest report, Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000, leading to over $430 million in long positions being liquidated. This drop occurred after the spot Bitcoin ETF ended five consecutive days of net inflows, recording $438 million in outflows on Monday, while MicroStrategy's stock price fell by 4.4%.Previously, MicroStrategy made a record purchase of $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin last week. With the U.S. holiday approaching and a lack of catalysts to drive prices up in the short term, Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 has temporarily stalled.Ethereum's implied volatility is significantly skewed towards put options, reflecting a market sentiment similar to that of Bitcoin. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 1%, reaching a historic high. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.35%, marking five consecutive trading days of gains, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.16%. Over the week, the Dow accumulated a 2% increase, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.7%. As the "Trump Cabinet 2.0" gradually takes shape, the market is generally optimistic about the implementation of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation policies.Cryptocurrencies showed an upward trend last week, with the market sentiment index remaining in the greed phase, indicating investors' optimistic expectations for future price movements. As BTC continues to hit new highs approaching $100,000, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally saw substantial gains following the market trend, while the popularity of meme projects declined last week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% last week, surpassing the 108 mark and reaching a two-year high. The bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone has dampened oil demand expectations, but due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose about 6% last week, marking the best performance in two months. Recent trends in gold have been supported by strong risk aversion and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with gold prices rising for five consecutive days last week, accumulating a 5.7% increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly two years.After Trump's victory in the presidential election, the Fed's stance on rate cuts has become increasingly cautious. Last week, a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials cast a shadow over the highly anticipated prospect of a Fed rate cut in December. The minutes from the Fed's November meeting and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday local time, respectively, which may stir market waves. Currently, investors expect the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December to be slightly above 50%. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. September Core PCE Price Index MoM is 0.3%, expected 0.3%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0.2%.In addition, the U.S. September Core PCE Price Index YoY is 2.7%, expected 2.6%, previous value 2.7%.

ChainCatcher news, Wilmington Trust's bond portfolio manager Wil Stith stated that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday is hotter than anticipated, "I think they can discuss pausing the rate cuts because they have already cut rates by 50 basis points before." LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach also believes that strong job growth could persuade the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in November. However, other observers of the Federal Reserve indicate that the upcoming data on Thursday and Friday is unlikely to change the Fed's rate cut trajectory.Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "No matter what the data says, the Fed is already on a path to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and it is unlikely that the central bank will change this trajectory." Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated, "There is no reason to believe that the Fed won't cut rates by another 25 basis points in November, unless there is a significant surprise in the employment report."Currently, many traders agree with this assessment. As of last Friday, investors expected a greater than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting.

ChainCatcher news, this week is a busy week for economic data. The Fed's favored inflation indicator PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the Q3 earnings reports from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the market direction at the start of November.According to 4E monitoring, last week the three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed performances. Tesla's stock price surged, pushing the Nasdaq up about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and just a step away from its historical high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, and the Dow Jones dropped 2.6%, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines last week, with Bitcoin priced at $67,668, down 2.18% over the past seven days, and Ethereum at $2,490, nearly 10% lower over the same period.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar index approached a three-month high on Friday, rising 0.8% last week and marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, while political uncertainty led to a 1.9% decline in the yen last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the U.S. election, along with global central bank rate cut expectations, spot gold reached a historical high for three consecutive days last week before giving back some gains, but still ended the week up over 0.9%, marking its sixth consecutive week of increases. The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices up over 4% for the week.Recently, the market has increasingly anticipated a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and this week's series of economic data will test investors' bets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Q3 GDP estimate will be released, followed by the September PCE data on Thursday, and the October non-farm report on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have once again entered their routine blackout period, and the market widely believes there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut. The influx of data combined with the approaching U.S. election will intensify market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, analyst Paul Ashworth said in a report that considering today's CPI report, the core PCE inflation indicator for September may accelerate from 0.1% in August to 0.2%, but the annualized rate "will only be slightly above the Fed's 2% target." PCE data will not be released until the end of the month, and in addition, tomorrow's PPI report will help adjust expectations. Ashworth stated that if his prediction is correct, the pace of inflation (decline) "will support the Fed's more cautious rate cut of 25 basis points early next month." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "the Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), showed an increase of 2.2% over the 12 months ending in August, not far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.A year ago and two years ago, this indicator was 3.4% and 6.6%, respectively. The core PCE (excluding the more volatile food and energy items) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August. A year ago, the 12-month core inflation rate was 3.8%, and two years ago it was 5.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 45.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 54.1% (before the PCE data release, these were 50.1% and 49.9% respectively). The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 24.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.2%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 25.8% (before the PCE data release, these were 26.0%, 50.0%, and 24.0% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. core PCE price index for August increased by 0.1% month-on-month (the lowest since May), expected 0.20%, previous value 0.20%.The U.S. core PCE price index for August increased by 2.7% year-on-year (the highest since April), expected 2.70%, previous value 2.60%.The U.S. PCE price index for August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, expected 0.10%, previous value 0.20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, before the release of PCE data, the CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 50.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 49.9%.By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 26.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.0%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 40.8%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 8.1%.

ChainCatcher message, analysts have indicated that after the latest economic data strengthened expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury yields remained almost unchanged, and the market is poised for its longest consecutive rise since 2021. The PCE index, favored by the Federal Reserve as a measure of potential U.S. inflation, rose moderately in July, while household spending remained robust.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to lower its key policy interest rate. He affirmed expectations that Fed officials will begin to reduce borrowing costs next month and clearly indicated his intention to prevent further cooling of the labor market. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. core PCE price index for July increased by 0.2%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.20%.