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Serenity: Investors are indiscriminately selling off assets in the AI industry chain, with some storage stocks' valuations dropping to an annualized price-to-earnings ratio of 1.6 times

Investor Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) posted that the current market deleveraging has become quite severe, with investors indiscriminately selling stocks related to the AI industry chain. Some companies' stock prices have even fallen back to levels before significant orders and performance expectations were realized.Serenity cited the storage chip company ESMT as an example, noting that the company has a market capitalization of about $2 billion, achieving a gross profit of $526.2 million and a net profit of $330 million in the third quarter, with net assets of approximately $937 million, of which net cash is about $740 million. Based on current performance annualized, its price-to-earnings ratio is only about 1.6 times. Despite ongoing market concerns about the cycle peaking, unsustainable profits, and lack of competitive barriers, the trend of DDR2 and DDR3 production lines exiting is tightening supply, and ESMT expects to hedge against declining consumer demand in the fourth quarter by raising product average prices.Serenity also pointed out that manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are gradually exiting DDR2 and DDR3 production lines, and Nanya Technology has also stopped related production lines, while ESMT's revenue mainly comes from these two types of storage products. It believes that the market underestimates the price support brought by the contraction of traditional storage supply and ignores the situation where Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and SanDisk are locking in profitability through long-term supply agreements and price floors. Serenity criticized that the market is selling off AI and storage industry chain companies that actually generate substantial cash flow while shifting funds to companies like Walmart, which has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 47 times, and CrowdStrike, which has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 180 times. The current focus is not on the actual free cash flow generated by companies but rather on indiscriminate selling.

NVIDIA's stock price rose, and the demand for AI chips was not affected by the Democratic Party's victory

Despite the possibility that the Democratic Party may push for stricter restrictions on data center construction after winning the election, Nvidia's stock price still rose on Wednesday. This is because the positive performance reported by major companies in the chip industry indicates that market concerns about delays in data center construction have not immediately affected Nvidia and other hardware companies.Customers are still rushing to stockpile artificial intelligence hardware, even though it is currently uncertain whether there will be suitable locations to install these devices in the future. The defeat of Republican governors in Texas and Ohio in the election means that the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure will face stricter scrutiny.Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a research report: "Increased oversight from Congress does not necessarily hinder the artificial intelligence investment cycle. Comprehensive federal-level restrictions will face legislative and presidential power constraints, while state and local regulations will still have a greater impact on the timing and location of data center construction." If Democratic politicians indeed push for stringent measures to limit the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, Nvidia will face greater challenges in the future.However, the market is currently more focused on signs that chip demand remains strong after the stock's recent weak performance.

first_img 10x Research Founder: Wall Street Ends Bitcoin Surge, Year-End Target Price $90,000

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated in the Cointelegraph podcast Trade Secrets that the days of Bitcoin experiencing double-digit gains consecutively are over, as Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales are reshaping the market structure. He believes that institutional traders are selling call options after price increases, making the extreme price surges of earlier years less common. Thielen, who is also the author of the industry historical work Crypto Titans, found in his writing that each cycle has different drivers, and different drivers attract different investors. The current drivers are from Wall Street, with investors trading based on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions.Thielen estimates that among the $60 billion in net inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs he analyzed, market makers could account for as much as half. These institutions hold ETF shares to hedge options trading, so they do not necessarily represent a bet on Bitcoin's price increase. His estimate is based on a review of the SEC's 13F filings. He still expects Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by the end of the year, but it may first drop to a range of $76,000 to $79,000. Bitcoin fell to about $76,100 last Friday after a $6.3 billion hacking incident on Binance, with a cumulative drop of 7.3% in October.Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, believing that too much value generated by Ethereum's ecosystem is flowing to Layer 2 networks. He has been bearish on Ethereum for over a year, comparing it to a highway: everyone wants the road to be clear and tidy for fast travel, but no one wants to pay for it. He cited the decentralized perpetual contract exchange Hyperliquid as an example, pointing out that its aid fund converts trading fees into HYPE and destroys them, suggesting that Ethereum needs to establish a stronger connection between network usage and financial benefits for holders.

Analysis: Bitcoin has broken the trend pattern before the last three U.S. midterm elections, with the current price 5.2% above the 200-day moving average

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the trend observed in the previous three elections. As of November 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,990, about 5.2% higher than the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the average.In contrast, during the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price was approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below the 200-day average, respectively, all during bear market phases. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October 2025, the current bear market has seen relatively shallow declines, mainly concentrated in January and February of this year.Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically exhibits volatility or slight weakness in the initial months following midterm elections, but has achieved gains in the subsequent 12 months. However, short-term trends may still be influenced by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.Additionally, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken through a descending triangle pattern, indicating an increase in market expectations for short-term volatility.

first_img Kioxia's stock price fell by 15% at one point, and the quarterly profit guidance was below expectations

Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings saw its stock price drop by 15% on Monday. The company provided a guidance for operating profit of 2 trillion yen (approximately 12.7 billion USD) for the December quarter last Friday, which is below the consensus expectation of analysts at 2.35 trillion yen and only slightly higher than the 1.99 trillion yen recorded in the September quarter. In previous quarters, Kioxia's operating profit surged due to the procurement of high-speed NAND storage by artificial intelligence data centers.Kioxia attributed the slowdown in growth mainly to the timing of shipments rather than a weakening demand. Some orders originally scheduled for delivery this quarter were moved to the September quarter at the request of customers, while others were postponed to the March quarter next year due to an increase in the proportion of enterprise storage and longer production and delivery cycles. Chief Financial Officer Yoshihiko Kawamura stated in a conference call last week that the company expects to see a rapid recovery in growth in the March quarter, with demand from artificial intelligence data center operators remaining strong.Kawamura also mentioned that the company's planned production capacity for next year is already sold out, and more than half of the production for the following year has also been allocated. Some major customers have begun negotiations for contracts covering 2029 and beyond. Kioxia competes with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, focusing primarily on NAND, while its South Korean counterparts also sell DRAM needed for artificial intelligence computing.
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