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Analyst: MicroStrategy's stock price shows technical divergence after BTC hits a new high, which may indicate that the positive cycle has been broken

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analysts explain the recent stock price trends of MicroStrategy (MSTR) through Soros' Theory of Reflexivity. This theory posits that there is a two-way interaction between investor expectations and prices: optimistic investors drive prices up, and rising prices enable the company to finance at lower costs, further improving performance and pushing prices higher, creating a virtuous cycle. However, when this cycle is broken, price adjustments may exceed market expectations.The stock price of MicroStrategy (MSTR) has continued to decline after being included in the Nasdaq 100 index, once dropping to the $300 mark, down nearly 45% from its historical high of $543 at the end of November, and about 30% from the $430 announced on December 14 after the Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Analysts point out that several market signals suggest MSTR may have formed a short-term top, including: the company's stock price skyrocketing nearly 8 times this year, founder Michael Saylor frequently appearing and promoting the new "Bitcoin yield" indicator, and multiple companies beginning to emulate its Bitcoin reserve strategy.Despite the recent significant pullback, MSTR's long-term performance remains impressive. The stock is still up over 400% this year, with a cumulative increase of 20 times since it began implementing its Bitcoin reserve strategy in August 2020. Most analysts believe that MSTR has experienced similar magnitude pullbacks multiple times over the past three years, but ultimately ended with gains.

Analysis: The positive correlation between the South Korean stock index and Bitcoin prices has been broken, with funds shifting from the stock market to the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Wall Street Watch, Asian stock markets have shown mixed performance this year against the backdrop of a strong dollar. Some have achieved a bull market in local currency at the cost of currency depreciation, while others have sacrificed part of their stock market gains for relatively stable exchange rates, with South Korea being an exception.In terms of the Korean won, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has fallen by 10.0% this year. Considering the depreciation of the won, the KOSPI has dropped by 18.9% when measured in dollars, making it the weakest in Asia. From the perspective of capital flow, since the second half of this year, only institutional investors in South Korea have maintained a net buying scale in the stock market, while the resident sector has been continuously reducing purchases.Analysis suggests that a significant portion of the money that South Korean residents have withdrawn from the stock market has been used for "crypto trading." Data from the Bank of Korea (BOK) shows that as of November, the number of domestic cryptocurrency investors in South Korea has reached 15.59 million, an increase of 610,000 from the previous month. Currently, among the 51 million South Koreans, 30% are involved in crypto trading.The daily trading volume of South Korea's five major cryptocurrency exchanges—UPbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX—has surged from 34 trillion won in October to 149 trillion won in November, more than quadrupling. South Koreans have always been keen on investing in cryptocurrencies. During the first wave of the cryptocurrency bull market in 2017, about 5% of the population participated; in the second bull market in 2021, 10% participated; and now this proportion has expanded to 30%. However, historically, the South Korean stock index has shown a positive correlation with Bitcoin prices, which was completely broken in October of this year.
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