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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Below $82,500" experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 76% (a fluctuation of 26%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

On-chain data company CryptoQuant researcher Rei Researcher pointed out in a report released on Monday that as the Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to shrink, the price of Bitcoin may see an upward trend. The report shows that the Bitcoin held by exchanges has decreased from 2.8 million in February to 2.67 million. The recent price of Bitcoin is around $83,485, remaining stable over the past 24 hours but rising 8% over the past 30 days, following the best-performing quarter in years.The report states, "If buying demand continues to improve while exchange supply remains low, Bitcoin could benefit from a supply-demand imbalance, creating favorable conditions for a longer-term upward trend." The report adds, "More importantly, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows in recent weeks, while exchange reserves continue to decline. This is a notable development, indicating that even as the market recovers, the supply available for trading is still decreasing." The report also notes that investors may be transferring Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold wallets.In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin traded below $65,000 for most of the time. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, the cryptocurrency has been in a bear market for most of this year. However, the situation changed in August when the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of liquidity support repurchase operations, weakening the dollar while boosting non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Analysts say that the so-called "devaluation trade" has heated up again, benefiting Bitcoin as it did in 2024 and 2025. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is still over 30% lower than its historical record.

Microsoft's stock price has rebounded over 50% since the low point in June, with a market value increase of approximately $1.5 trillion, poised to set a new closing historical high. Previously, the stock had plummeted 17% in June due to investor concerns over the return on investment in artificial intelligence spending.The turning point occurred on July 29, when the financial report showed that the revenue growth of the cloud computing business reached the fastest rate in four years, leading to a 16% surge in stock price the following day.

According to the market intelligence platform Liquid247.xyz, OKX perpetual BTC has approximately 109.7 sell orders at the price level of $83,610, with a nominal value of about $9.17 million, which is an increase of about 0.05% from the mid-price of approximately $83,571 at that time.The total buy orders at the near-end market amount to approximately $18.65 million, while the sell orders are about $28.88 million, resulting in a net sell order surplus of approximately $10.24 million, accounting for 21.54% of the total depth.

The founder of the WHUF project posted on X that the WHUF trading price is below the ICO price. He stated that the price guarantee is functioning as designed, and the redeemed WHUF will be destroyed and permanently removed from circulation. The team originally expected this mechanism to reduce sell-offs close to $3.57, but 23% of the original purchase amount did not receive guarantees within the protection window, which currently constitutes the largest outflow.The founder mentioned that the team focuses liquidity on Coinbase, hiring two market makers and allocating 175 basis points of centralized exchange liquidity, with only about 25 basis points on-chain. The launch pool has about 20,000 WHUF and less than $100,000 USDC, with auction buyers selling about 101,000 WHUF in the first hour after unlocking. A single $10,000 sell order caused the price to fluctuate nearly 20%. Of the 1,402 auction wallets, 298 sold, with 92% occurring in the first 3 hours. The team refused to pay for listings, and the exchange's +/-2% depth sometimes only amounts to $10,000 to $40,000. Of the $7.14 million raised from the ICO, $7.14 million has been reserved for price protection.The founder stated that if the auction is redone, they would choose Uniswap CCA and use the Sonar platform fees to inject liquidity. Redemptions must check against the sanctions list, and Sumsub has flagged 5 individuals who did not pass, with reasons including terrorism and crime. Redemptions for non-sanctioned users have been automated, and the team will return USDC in batches and destroy the corresponding WHUF, which is expected to take at least several days. At the time of the project's issuance, 20% of the supply was sold, mainly raised from the community, and provided protocol usage rewards and ICO price protection.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $80,000" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 80.5% an hour ago to the current 64.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The IMF World Economic Outlook report indicates that in a scenario of escalating war in the Middle East, oil prices will reach $130 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, leading to a 0.2 percentage point decline in global economic growth in 2026 and a 0.5 percentage point decline in 2027.

According to the market intelligence platform Liquid247.xyz, Coinbase spot BTC has approximately 64.53 sell orders at the price level of $82,071, with a nominal value of about $5.3 million, which is about 0.40% above the mid-price of approximately $81,741 at that time. The total near-term sell orders amount to about $25.1354 million, while the buy orders are approximately $18.7532 million.Currently, the net sell orders on Coinbase spot are about $6.3822 million, accounting for 14.54% of the total depth. This sell order level is the most prominent resistance in the near term.

Investment bank StoneX has raised the target price for the tokenization platform Securitize from $12 to $18, an increase of 50%, while maintaining the buy rating given by analyst Mark Palmer. This adjustment comes on the first trading day after the launch of Securitize Stocks, which saw the stock drop by as much as 10% in early trading on Monday, with the new target price still about 45% higher than the stock price at that time. Palmer noted that although SECZ's stock price rose last week due to the news of the platform's launch, the market still views it as a tokenization service provider, while the company has actually evolved into a market operator.StoneX pointed out that in the second quarter, Securitize's trading volume of $5.3 billion generated most of its tokenization revenue from integration fees, with the trading volume itself being almost unmonetized. The launch of Securitize Stocks is expected to change this situation, allowing the company to start charging fees from trading and services, and potentially earning collateral-related income in the future. Last week, the platform introduced stocks such as Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla to Solana, with transactions settled in USDC, and the tokens backed one-to-one by the underlying stocks, allowing holders to enjoy dividends and shareholder rights.StoneX expects Securitize's revenue to approach $120 million in 2027, growing to about $198.5 million in 2028, with an annual growth rate of approximately 65%. Based on Palmer's target price of $18, the corresponding enterprise value to revenue multiple for the 2028 forecast is about 14.5 times. The firm believes that as the scale of tokenized stock trading fees expands, the company's revenue structure will shift from one-time integration fees to ongoing trading and service charges.

According to Crowdfund Insider, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) analyst Craig Siegenthaler adjusted the target prices for three major retail trading and cryptocurrency platforms in early October 2026, as follows:Robinhood (HOOD): Target price raised from $140 to $156, maintaining a "Buy" rating.Coinbase (COIN): Target price raised from $174 to $203, maintaining a "Buy" rating.eToro (ETOR): Target price lowered from $46 to $39, maintaining a "Neutral" rating.

10x Research published that Bitcoin option prices have fallen to a five-year low, with near-month implied volatility at 33.5%, more than 4 percentage points lower than actual volatility, indicating that option pricing is relatively cheap. In the past week, the skew of Bitcoin options has decreased by nearly 3 percentage points, with traders focusing on buying put options expiring in October with strike prices of $78,000 and $80,000, with single large trades reaching up to $204 million.10x Research believes this indicates that investors overall still hold long positions while hedging downside risks through options, rather than fully turning bearish. In contrast, the Ethereum options market shows different signals. Its largest corporate buyer has indicated that it will stop buying in the coming weeks, with options trading primarily dominated by sellers of call options, and implied volatility higher than actual volatility.

According to the market information platform Liquid247.xyz, Coinbase's spot BTC has about 65.51 sell orders at the price level of $83,836, with a nominal value of approximately $5.492 million, which is about 0.40% above the mid-price of around $83,506 at that time. The total sell orders at the near end amount to approximately $23.8111 million, while the buy orders are about $23.7336 million.The net sell orders at this venue exceed approximately $77,500, accounting for 0.16% of the total depth. The sell orders near $83,836 represent the most prominent resistance at the near end.

According to the Business Times citing supply chain sources, Intel has raised the prices of multi-generational PC processors since September, with the high-end Panther Lake seeing an increase of 15% to 20%. Qualcomm raised the prices of multi-chip platforms by about 10% on October 1, and AMD is reported to follow suit, with the increase, scope, and effective date still to be confirmed.The report states that Intel has raised prices three times since the end of last year. Starting from September 1, prices were adjusted differentially by product line, with the highest increase for high-end Panther Lake products, focusing on those equipped with high-end GPU tiles, rather than a simultaneous increase across the entire series; Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake saw increases of about 5% to 10%. Panther Lake adopts heterogeneous integration, with the CPU Compute tile produced by Intel 18A, and the high-end GPU tile outsourced to TSMC N3E. The largest increase this time is for high-end GPUs using TSMC's advanced process.The supply chain indicates that Qualcomm's Snapdragon X and X2 Elite platforms will increase by about 10% starting in October. AMD's Ryzen and EPYC heavily rely on TSMC's advanced processes, with the next generation of EPYC pushing towards 2 nanometers. Industry insiders say that process upgrades, product high-endization, and AI computing power demands are simultaneously driving up CPU prices, with AI, mobile, and high-end computing competing for TSMC's 3-nanometer capacity, while 2-nanometer is entering the ramp-up phase for mass production.

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on platform X that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin have cumulatively transferred approximately 32,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since the significant drop on February 5 of this year. However, during the same period, U.S. government-related wallets transferred about 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Considering that this platform serves as the official custodian and trading service for the U.S. Marshals Service, these transfers do not necessarily indicate selling.Excluding this portion, the noteworthy potential selling pressure is approximately 14,800 BTC, primarily coming from long-term holdings aged 6 to 12 months and 3 to 5 years. Murphy pointed out that the average coin age of spent long-term holder coins reached 712 days, up from 651 days on July 14, indicating that earlier holdings are gradually participating in turnover. He believes that the distribution by long-term holders during the transition phase between bull and bear markets is not necessarily bearish; the release of periodic selling pressure can help in the redistribution of holdings, with the key being whether market demand can effectively absorb it. If new funds can digest the supply, sufficient turnover may actually reduce resistance for subsequent market movements.

Papertrade's official response to the allegations of price manipulation and the existence of obvious loopholes in the protocol states: It has never been possible for small orders to have the same priority as large orders. If this were done, the front end would suffer from congestion due to junk trading, and the consequences would be much worse than the existing queuing mechanism.Under these constraints, we have designed the fair launch to be as inclusive as possible.Last night, the attempts to manipulate BTC/ETH on Hyperliquid BBO were not due to flaws in the mechanism that took six months to design. These situations had already been considered; it was only because the position limits were set very loosely in the early stages to cope with congestion that such occurrences were possible. If position limits were set during peak demand for launching, it would only exacerbate the slow experience, and the queuing mechanism itself, due to the uncertainty of opening/closing confirmation times, naturally provides protection against manipulation.As congestion eases, we have begun to tighten position limits on-chain and at the relay level. In such a system, manipulation attacks are always possible— the key is whether the attempt is economically viable. The official goal is to set parameters to a point where it is almost never profitable; even if successful, the tail risk is extremely high, and the expected value is negative.

Crypto trader Rune stated on platform X that the official documentation of PaperTrade has disclosed a "vulnerability" risk in the pricing mechanism at the protocol level. According to the screenshots of the displayed documentation, attackers can manipulate prices using the Best Bid and Offer (BBO) from the Hyperliquid order book. This risk involves unresolved price manipulation pathways, contract economic mechanisms, risk exposure control, as well as operational protective measures and permission management mechanisms.In addition, Rune also forwarded a tweet from community user boblob, which revealed that two wallets are suspected of actively exploiting "attacks" on the PaperTrade platform, causing a slight fluctuation of about 10-20 basis points in the ETH price on the Hyperliquid platform through trades totaling approximately 20 million dollars. Boblob further added that there are obvious issues with the current PaperTrade protocol that need to be fixed as soon as possible, or it may affect the long-term sustainability of the protocol.

According to the market intelligence platform Liquid247.xyz, Coinbase's spot BTC has about 64.37 buy orders at the price level of $82,581, with a nominal value of approximately $5.31 million, which is about a 0.40% pullback from the mid-price of around $82,911 at that time. The total buy orders near the front end amount to approximately $23.73 million, while the sell orders are about $21.52 million.The net buy orders at this venue are approximately $2.2 million, accounting for 4.88% of the total depth. The buy orders near $82,581 are the most prominent support level at the front end.

Renowned trader Killa stated that buyers are absorbing selling pressure during the recent pullback, which resembles the pattern seen in a previous consolidation range, and there is very little support below the current price level. The market order wall shows a strong accumulation of buy orders just above the $80,000 level, and the buyers' conviction is strong; this price level is also an important psychological barrier for Bitcoin.Killa mentioned that if Bitcoin's weekly K-line closes above the previous week's low (around $82,600) this week, it would be a bullish signal, potentially indicating a typical return to the range after a stop-loss hunt. Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

A giant whale trader on Hyperliquid holds 391.48 Bitcoin short positions, with a position value of 32.36 million USD and an average opening price of 82,863.1 USD. The account equity is 7.19 million USD, using full margin and 13x leverage, with a liquidation price of 99,801.2 USD.Data from Hyperbot shows that this account has executed a total of 4,726 trades, with a profit of 952,200 USD from perpetual contracts in the past week and a maximum drawdown of 11.03%. As of the time of the relevant information disclosure, the short position has a profit of approximately 75,500 USD, with funding fees of 64,249.75 USD. This position emerged on the anniversary of the large-scale liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market on October 10, 2025. The open interest in the Hyperliquid Bitcoin market is approximately 38,040 Bitcoin, with this account's position accounting for about 1% of that.Data from Coinglass shows that if Bitcoin rises to 85,000 USD, approximately 3.3 billion USD in short positions will face liquidation. Data from Polymarket indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 USD before December 31, 2026, is 27.5%. The net inflow for the spot Bitcoin ETF is 21.13 million USD, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way.