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BTC $80,812.21 +0.09%
ETH $2,287.39 -1.86%
BNB $659.24 +1.27%
XRP $1.46 +1.19%
SOL $95.61 +0.82%
TRX $0.3494 -0.30%
DOGE $0.1096 +0.09%
ADA $0.2760 -0.15%
BCH $445.04 -1.22%
LINK $10.37 -1.68%
HYPE $41.25 -1.33%
AAVE $99.01 -1.25%
SUI $1.27 +1.96%
XLM $0.1659 -0.63%
ZEC $553.72 -3.51%

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Gate Prediction Market: WTI crude oil price expectations for May are bullish, with a 51% probability of exceeding 110 USD

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

Bitcoin options indicate a bullish target price of rising to $115,000 by the end of the year

Bitcoin bulls have high expectations for the year-end options expiring on December 25, involving about $6 billion in funds. Since the year’s low of $60,130 on February 6, the BTC price has risen by 33%, which has largely driven the return of bullish sentiment in the market. However, the large number of call (buy) options with target prices pointing to $115,000 and above has also raised questions about whether the bulls are overly optimistic.The Deribit trading platform holds a 92% market share in December Bitcoin options open interest, reaching $5.5 billion. On Deribit, put (sell) options have decreased by 56% compared to call options, as crypto traders have traditionally favored bullish positions, with the put-call ratio typically skewed. Even so, the open interest for call options at $115,000 and above amounts to $1.85 billion, which is still a considerable size. However, the number of put options at $55,000 and below is also significant, with total open interest of $1 billion. This indicates that both sides are viewed as having a similar proportion of bets deemed unlikely to materialize, each accounting for about 50% of their respective open interest segments. If the bulls are seen as overly optimistic, the bears also seem to be equally extreme in their pessimism.The options skew indicator more clearly reflects professional traders' comfort levels regarding upside and downside price risks. Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent call options, indicating moderate concern about Bitcoin's downside price volatility. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should be between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives indicators, investor optimism has not been materially affected during Bitcoin's rise to $80,000. Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in call options for December should not be interpreted as a signal of excessive confidence from the bulls.
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