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Grayscale: The increase in Bitcoin's price is highly concentrated on a few trading days, and staying out also carries an opportunity cost

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past three years, Bitcoin's cumulative return rate was approximately 225%, while the Nasdaq index's return rate was 109%. However, Bitcoin's rise was not evenly distributed, with a few of the strongest trading days contributing significantly to long-term returns, increasing the difficulty for investors to time their entry.Data shows that if the five best trading days for Bitcoin are excluded, its three-year cumulative return rate would drop from 225% to 95%; excluding the best ten trading days, the return rate falls to 27%; and if the best fifteen trading days are missed, the three-year return would turn into a loss of 11%. In contrast, the return distribution of the Nasdaq is more balanced; after excluding the best fifteen trading days, the cumulative return rate drops from 109% to 21%.Grayscale indicated that during this period, less than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains that, when excluded, would reduce Bitcoin's cumulative return by more than half. For assets with high return and high volatility characteristics, staying out also carries an opportunity cost; since the best trading days are difficult to predict reliably, waiting for volatility to decrease or for market prospects to become clearer may mean that some price re-evaluations have already been completed.

first_img Before the merger of XRP Financial Company and Evernorth, Armada SPAC's stock price rose approximately 273% in a week

According to CoinDesk, Armada Acquisition Corp. II (XRPN) closed at $39.42 last Friday, up 68% on the day, and has risen approximately 273% over the week, reaching a high of $53 during intraday trading, compared to $10.58 a week ago, with a further pre-market increase of 9.5% on Monday. The company is the SPAC driving the listing of XRP treasury company Evernorth, which stated that the merger is expected to be completed on October 7 (Wednesday), pending the fulfillment of remaining conditions.Evernorth is expected to hold approximately 473 million XRP at the time of closing, valued at about $714 million based on Monday's price of approximately $1.51. Its disclosed financing includes about $300 million in total cash proceeds, of which $225 million comes from a private placement, $30 million from convertible notes, and $48 million from Armada's trust funds, with supporters also directly investing in XRP. However, the company purchased 84.4 million XRP for $214.1 million by the end of 2025, at an average price of approximately $2.54, which is now worth about $127 million.Armada Trust held $241.2 million at the end of June, with each public share redemption valued at approximately $10.49. Evernorth's announcement on October 1 indicated that about $48 million of the trust funds would be reserved for trading, suggesting that approximately 80% of the trust funds would be returned to shareholders. Redemptions will reduce the number of publicly tradable shares, allowing relatively small orders to significantly drive up the stock price.
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