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Kimi B's head of the department: There is a bubble in the AI industry, but the fundamentals are solid; the price increase of APIs is due to tight computing power

According to a report by 21 Finance, Huang Zhenxin, the head of Kimi B-end at Moonshot AI, stated in a recent communication meeting that there is indeed a bubble in the current AI industry, but the fundamentals are very solid. Enterprises can now clearly calculate the return on investment (ROI), and the substantial transformation in productivity brought by AI has already occurred.Regarding the recent phenomenon of widespread price increases among model vendors, Huang Zhenxin pointed out that the core reason lies in the rising global computing power costs, and chip production capacity cannot meet the explosive growth in Token demand. He emphasized that evaluating the cost-performance ratio of models should not only look at the unit price of input and output but should also focus on the Cache hit rate. It is reported that Kimi's original factory Cache hit rate has reached over 90%, significantly reducing actual computing costs.In addition, Huang Zhenxin revealed that Kimi will continue to challenge innovations in underlying architecture to sustain the Scaling Law, and its Muon optimizer, which has been validated on a large scale, is now widely adopted by several mainstream large models in the industry. Regarding the "last mile" of enterprise AI implementation, he believes that as the foundational capabilities of models continue to strengthen, the technical paradigms at the application layer will also continue to simplify.

CITIC Construction Investment: Although the logic of AI computing power remains optimistic, volatility has intensified; it is recommended to be cautious in chasing high prices

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.
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