ChainCatcher message, Barclays Bank stated that one of the factors that may keep U.S. interest rates high is U.S. (inflation) policy. At the December meeting, some FOMC participants clearly began to reflect expectations regarding tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Furthermore, even among those who did not adjust their official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risks tends to lean upward.Although Powell did not explicitly answer to what extent the Federal Reserve tends to view price level increases related to tariffs, we believe that, given the expectation that tariffs will lead to intensified inflation in the second half of 2025, particularly against the backdrop of rising inflation rates in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates. We expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts after June next year and to resume cutting rates around mid-2026 after the inflationary pressures caused by tariffs dissipate. In our baseline scenario, we anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%.

ChainCatcher news, Abrdn analyst Dongyue Zhang stated in a research report that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January as it shifts to a slower pace of easing. If inflation continues to cool, a rate cut is expected in March.After the anticipated policy changes in 2025, the incoming Trump administration may bring greater volatility. Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the opportunities outweigh the risks. The benefits of deregulation and a more favorable business environment will promote productivity improvements and capital allocation. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, the labor market healthy, AI-related capital expenditures to expand, and capital markets to be stronger. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Monex Europe senior foreign exchange market analyst Nick Rees stated that the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision marks the beginning of the FOMC's extended pause on rate cuts, although it is still too early to say this definitively.It is now expected that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2025. If this is correct, it should support the dollar's upward movement in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a report to clients on Thursday, "The upcoming potential policy changes, higher tariffs, deficit-financed tax cuts, and tighter immigration policies could all put upward pressure on prices.In fact, due to these policy changes, we predict that the core PCE inflation rate will hardly decline over the next two years. At next week's meeting, the Federal Reserve will also have to acknowledge the lack of progress on inflation, and we believe the Fed may pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with the risk that policy changes (during Trump's second term) could make this pause prolonged."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. CPI report for November will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect the year-on-year CPI growth rate to be 2.7%, slightly higher than October's 2.6%. Bank of America strategists stated that this inflation data could be particularly influential for U.S. stocks, especially after the market's muted reaction to CPI readings over the past few months.The strategists added, "Conversely, a stronger CPI data could reignite volatility, especially after U.S. stocks rebounded by 5% post-election." More importantly, the inflation data will impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions. If there is an unexpected upside, it could increase the likelihood of the Fed pausing its rate-cutting cycle sooner.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market expects about an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by another 25 basis points at next week's meeting.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated that to maintain the strength of the dollar, the Federal Reserve may need to stop cutting interest rates.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy is performing robustly, and his company, Yardeni Research, has always held a positive view on the dollar. A few months ago, due to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened, which Yardeni believes would be a mistake. He added that the performance of the U.S. Treasury market and the dollar supports this view. He believes that by stopping or reducing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will help maintain the strength of the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that if the progress of inflation decline stalls, it may require the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. If the labor market shows signs of weakness, gradually lowering interest rates would be appropriate. The labor market has rebalanced, overall cooling down, and inflation has made "considerable progress."

According to ChainCatcher news, foreign media reported that after a government report showed last month's inflation slightly higher than expected, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. Following the release of the CPI data, traders began to withdraw their bets that the Federal Reserve would pause rate cuts in November, and now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings.