ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LBBW analyst Elmar Voelker stated in a report that the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is not as clear-cut as the forward rates suggest."In our view, the recently released U.S. macroeconomic data does not provide a clear template for the upcoming interest rate decision," said the seasoned fixed-income analyst. Voelker noted that from the perspective of bond market participants, "a rate cut in December and a pause in January" is not much different from "a pause in December and a rate cut in January."LSEG data shows that the money market believes there is a 94% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted that as Trump won the U.S. election, the year's biggest uncertainty event has come to an end, and BTC also reached a historical high today during the most intense moments of the election.Starting this afternoon, the IV of major expiration options began to decline, especially the IV of the end-of-month options, which has dropped from 100% to around 60%, as the market is gradually pricing in Trump's election.

ChainCatcher message, Deutsche Bank stated that despite recent polls leaning towards a Trump victory, market pricing remains cautious. Although there is discussion in the market about the "Trump trade," the extent of market pricing for a Trump victory is still quite cautious.Deutsche Bank illustrates this through the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a basket of S&P 500 companies that are most sensitive to tariffs. They believe that the euro to dollar exchange rate fell from 1.12 to 1.09 mainly due to a repricing of expectations for the Federal Reserve following the release of strong U.S. employment data. They also pointed out that the stock prices of the basket of S&P 500 companies sensitive to tariffs have been trading sideways, only recently starting to perform poorly, which aligns with the recent polling trends. Deutsche Bank wrote, "The market has begun to price in an increased probability of a Trump victory, but the extent of this impact on market pricing remains quite small."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak about the economic outlook next Friday at 10:00 PM Beijing time. Bank of America predicts that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is unlikely to have a significant impact on the dollar.The bank's analysts point out that funds remain optimistic about the dollar's strength, which could pose downside risks. Bank of America stated that the market has priced in four rate cuts this year, "we do not believe Powell will go against market pricing; he will keep the option for aggressive easing, depending on the data before the September meeting."

ChainCatcher news, influenced by global instability and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian market has experienced a turbulent week as traders are digesting a lot.ANZ Chief Economist Adam Boyton stated that while he believes the RBA will not raise interest rates, the central bank's monetary policy committee seems to be considering the decision to raise rates more carefully than what the market pricing indicates. ANZ maintains its view that the RBA will wait until February to determine whether it will join other major central banks in cutting rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Jefferies Group economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that the recent significant repricing of the money market regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts (with a potential cut of up to 125 basis points this year, which has eased on Tuesday) is an overreaction and does not reflect the fundamentals.It is expected that the Federal Reserve will neither cut rates by 50 basis points in September nor by 100 basis points or more this year, "despite aggressive measures, we believe the fundamentals have not changed significantly." Jefferies anticipates that the pricing in the money market will be reduced.

ChainCatcher news, market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to increase. Rate futures linked to the Federal Reserve's meeting dates show that the market is pricing in 6 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of next year, totaling 150 basis points.