bullish

QCP Capital: The rapid rebound in the market shows strong buying power, with short-term macro risks but still bullish

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that established cryptocurrencies have experienced a significant upward trend in the past two weeks since 2021. XRP has broken through its historical high of $2 in February 2021, surging 400% to $2.90 since November. During the same period, veteran projects like ADA, HBAR, and XLM recorded increases of 300%, 800%, and 600% respectively, showcasing the strong momentum of traditional crypto assets.This round of increase is mainly driven by two factors: first, Trump's proposal in November to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies issued by U.S. companies; second, potential pro-crypto cabinet nominees. It is reported that current Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick may take over as Secretary of Commerce, as his company is currently in negotiations with Tether. Meanwhile, the SEC chair position may be taken over by pro-crypto Paul Atkins, replacing current chair Gary Gensler.Although South Korea's implementation of martial law temporarily caused Bitcoin to drop to $93,500, the subsequent rapid rebound in the market indicates strong buying power. The report notes that while inflation concerns have compressed the expectation for three Fed rate cuts by 2025, and geopolitical risks from Trump regarding China, Mexico, Canada, and BRICS countries still exist, the cryptocurrency market is still expected to continue its upward trend.Analysts believe that with the potential launch of crypto-friendly policies by Trump's team and the continued entry of institutional investors, the goal of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and Ethereum reaching new historical highs is shifting from a dream to reality. Investors are advised to pay attention to the strong market momentum and seize investment opportunities.

4E: Bitcoin's bullish sentiment in December is strong, and this week's "non-farm payrolls + Powell" will set the tone for year-end interest rate cuts

ChainCatcher news, the rise of the "Trump trade" in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, last week all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones increased by 7.5% and the S&P rose by 5.7%, both marking the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq accumulated over 6%. Large tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, achieving its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia accumulating a 179.23% increase this year. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for U.S. stocks.The cryptocurrency market performed impressively in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's rise reached 54%. Altcoins experienced significant gains at the end of the month, with market share continuously expanding; Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a significant average increase in December during the second half of the year, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to strong bullish sentiment in the market.In the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell by 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, with a cumulative increase of 1.72% in November. The "Trump trade" boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward momentum and triggering a sell-off after the election; spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September of last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also become quite nuanced. While the market expects an increased probability of a rate cut in December, the space for cuts in 2025 is continuously decreasing. The "near increase, far decrease" phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about the resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This Thursday's speech by Powell and Friday's non-farm payroll data will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

Kaiko: ETF options are the latest bullish signal for BTC

ChainCatcher news, Kaiko released a report stating that ETF options are the latest bullish signal for BTC. Last week, several BTC ETF options made their debut, with BlackRock's IBIT options reaching a notional trading volume of $1.9 billion on the first day, totaling 354,000 contracts. In comparison, BITO options had a trading volume of $360 million when they launched in 2021. This strong buying power highlights the robust demand for BTC-linked derivatives and bullish market sentiment.Notably, over 80% of the IBIT first-day options trading volume was in call options, reflecting a strong belief in the price increase of Bitcoin. Trading activity was primarily concentrated on options with near-term expirations, with contracts expiring in December 2024 dominating. The share of IBIT call options significantly exceeded that of the largest crypto-native options market, Deribit, where call options accounted for 64% of trades.The launch of BTC spot ETF options could further accelerate institutional adoption. These tools allow investors to hedge risks and devise complex strategies to profit from Bitcoin's volatility. Additionally, they could drive the creation of structured products, which offer customized investments with specific risk-return characteristics, often developed by large financial institutions. This could attract new capital and a new wave of experienced institutional traders.

Data: BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF options debuted trading this Tuesday, with a call/put ratio of 4.44 indicating that investors are generally bullish

ChainCatcher news shows that according to SoSoValue data, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) had a total of 354,000 options contracts traded this Tuesday, with a nominal trading volume of $1.86 billion, indicating extremely high market enthusiasm on its first day of listing. The options also drove a 32% month-over-month increase in IBIT trading volume. Among all traded contracts, 288,700 were call options and 65,000 were put options, resulting in a call/put ratio of 4.44, reflecting a generally optimistic market sentiment.Data shows that market trading is concentrated on bullish options expiring on January 17, 2024, with a price range of $55-$60. Corresponding to Tuesday's closing price of IBIT, there is an increase of 4.4%-13.9%, and SoSoValue analysts stated, "This roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of $97,000-$105,000, indicating that the market expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before Trump officially takes office." Notably, the implied volatility for January options is between 68%-69%, compared to IBIT's 60-day historical volatility in the 55% range, with implied volatility exceeding historical volatility, indicating that investors prefer to hold options rather than sell them.Additionally, Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF GBTC and BTC options trading will also begin its debut trading this Wednesday.
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