business

JPMorgan: Expects Robinhood's cryptocurrency business revenue to decline in Q1 after hitting a record at the end of 2024

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington predicts that Robinhood (HOOD) may struggle to sustain its record cryptocurrency trading revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a potential decline in digital asset trading volume in the first quarter of 2025. The trading platform is set to announce its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on May 1, Eastern Time.The report shows that Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue surged 700% in the fourth quarter of last year, driving a significant increase in overall trading revenue. However, due to the dual impact of a stock and bond market downturn in the later part of the first quarter and a correction in the cryptocurrency market, it is expected that the trading volume for that quarter will drop from $71 billion in the fourth quarter to $52 billion. The assets under custody (AUC) are expected to decline by 5% quarter-over-quarter to $183.3 billion, but still show a year-over-year growth of 41%.Although retail buying was stimulated by U.S. tariff policies in early April, analysts believe this is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in the first quarter. Weak demand for margin and derivatives trading may further drag down performance. JPMorgan maintains a "neutral" rating, lowering the target price by $1 to $44, implying about a 10% downside from the current stock price of $49.

TD Cowen: Trump's crypto business may hinder U.S. regulatory legislation, political risks are rising

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen pointed out that the Trump family's cryptocurrency business (including the planned launch of a stablecoin) could trigger a backlash and delay the U.S. regulatory process. Despite lawmakers accelerating the push for cryptocurrency regulations, political risks are on the rise.Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen's Washington research team, wrote in a report on Monday: "We are concerned that political threats may escalate to a level that could undermine legislative and regulatory reforms in the cryptocurrency space. While we do not currently see political risks that could completely disrupt the cryptocurrency industry, the risks are rising rather than falling, which is a key factor we believe investors need to pay attention to." Currently, Washington lawmakers and regulators are making progress in cryptocurrency legislation and guideline development. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has withdrawn several cryptocurrency lawsuits, and lawmakers are proposing frameworks for regulating stablecoins and market structures.Seiberg mentioned that last week, SEC Acting Chair Mark Uyeda also hinted that the SEC might provide exemptions for cryptocurrency trading platforms and traditional exchanges wishing to trade tokenized securities. However, Seiberg stated that this momentum could be threatened by the controversies arising from the Trump family's involvement in the cryptocurrency space, including their planned launch of a stablecoin. "We are increasingly concerned that the Trump family's business activities and their government actions could provoke a strong backlash, derailing positive government actions." Seiberg also pointed out concerns over the Trump administration's shift in anti-money laundering policies, such as lifting sanctions on the cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash and the Justice Department's reduction in prosecutions of cryptocurrency money laundering cases.
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovators