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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Before the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is likely to continue its fluctuations, with the lower edge of 80,000 USD possibly being tested first

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

JPMorgan Chase: For the first time, includes Bitcoin in long-term return forecasts, with potential returns surpassing gold and bonds

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has first included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market expectations, forecasting an annualized return of about 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, which is expected to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, this prediction also assumes that Bitcoin's annualized volatility could reach as high as 55%, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.J.P. Morgan believes that the gradual improvement of the regulatory framework, along with the continuous enhancement of market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms, may further promote Bitcoin's recognition in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovations in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, as well as a global capital expenditure growth of approximately $15 trillion, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced investment portfolios; therefore, the institution has not yet included it in its main investment portfolio model. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline in the future and its correlation with other assets stabilizes, its portfolio allocation value is expected to increase.

Bitwise and Hyperliquid request the SEC to amend cryptocurrency regulations: focusing on token classification, airdrops, and secondary market trading

The asset management company Bitwise Asset Management and the Hyperliquid Policy Center submitted a comment letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), requesting modifications to the proposed cryptocurrency rules to clarify token classification, airdrops, and secondary market trading rules. The SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets would establish exemptions for eligible cryptocurrency financing and provide a conditional safe harbor for tokens related to investment contracts.Bitwise requested clarification on the standards for investment managers to determine whether tokens are subject to securities laws. The Hyperliquid Policy Center called for an expansion of the safe harbor scope and clarification of the rules for airdrops and token buybacks that reward network participants. The organization also requested that the SEC clarify whether unregistered intermediaries can facilitate token trading and whether tokens can be freely traded through on-chain protocols. Former SEC enforcement official John Reed Stark and Duke University finance scholar Lee Reiners called for the proposal to be withdrawn, arguing that it exceeds the SEC's statutory authority and undermines investor protection. The SEC will decide to amend, adopt, or withdraw the rules after the public comment period ends, and the final rules must be voted on by the commission before taking effect.

first_img Optimum Blockchain Transmission Layer mump2p launched on the Ethereum mainnet, ether.fi requires all nodes to adopt

A network startup company called Optimum, led by Professor Muriel Médard from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, announced that its block propagation software mump2p has officially launched on the Ethereum mainnet. The Ethereum liquid staking protocol ether.fi has made mump2p a mandatory requirement for all 12 of its node operators, whereas previously the software was optional for its operators.Optimum stated that there are currently 16 node operators running mump2p in production environments, collectively managing approximately 22,000 validator keys and over 1.4 million staked ETH, accounting for more than 3% of the total staked amount on Ethereum. Partners include Blockdaemon, Everstake, P2P.org, Stakefish, and Bitcoin Suisse. The software operates in a sidecar gateway manner, not replacing Ethereum's default GossipSub, but rather overlaying it on top of libp2p and utilizing random linear network coding technology. Optimum claims that the block arrival speed is 2.42 times faster than GossipSub, with an approximately 7.88 times reduction in arrival time variance.Rok Kopp, co-founder and Chief Growth Officer of ether.fi, stated that they will not require the entire validator set to adopt a new infrastructure unless they are confident that it can enhance the overall level of stakers and the network. Médard mentioned that traditional financial institutions invest billions of dollars to shorten execution times to the millisecond level because speed is money. Optimum launched its private testnet in June 2025, having previously completed a $11 million seed round financing led by 1kx, and plans to expand the protocol to other high-throughput blockchains after Ethereum.
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