Analysis: Long-term Bitcoin holders have transferred a large amount of chips for two consecutive days, possibly to avoid macro risks in advance
Analyst Murphy stated that there have been consecutive transfers of over 65,000 BTC in a single day in the past two days (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a significant decrease in the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH). He pointed out that LTH net holdings have changed the previously continuous upward trend since May, remaining stagnant until July, which is a rare phenomenon in the past year.Murphy mentioned that nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, for example, a publicly listed company under Trump transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this. The remaining destinations and purposes of the LTH net reduction are still unknown.He also listed current macro-level risk points that may impact BTC, including the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut with a 9 to 3 split vote, conflicts in the Middle East and oil prices, the highly concentrated valuation of the AI sector in the US stock market relying on debt and private credit financing, and the yen carry trade positions accumulating again to a nearly historically extreme net short state, while also noting that the sensitivity of the current BTC chip structure may amplify the above risks.