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Flash

first_img Russia's largest bank predicts that under the new regulations, the first year's cryptocurrency trading volume will reach 46 billion USD

Russia's largest bank Sberbank predicts that after the new regulations come into effect, the trading volume of regulated cryptocurrency exchanges in Russia may reach 4 trillion rubles (approximately 46.4 billion USD) in the first year. Sberbank's Vice Chairman Anatoly Popov stated that this figure could grow to about 7.5 trillion rubles (approximately 87.1 billion USD) by 2029.Russian President Putin signed a law to establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market in early August, which will take effect on September 1, 2026, with some provisions coming into effect on September 1, 2027. Existing cryptocurrency exchanges will have a grace period until March 1, 2027. According to the framework, retail investors can purchase the most liquid cryptocurrencies through intermediaries with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles (approximately 3,700 USD), while qualified investors will have no restrictions.Popov stated that the bank plans to issue loans collateralized by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT after approval from the central bank. Sberbank also plans to launch a cryptocurrency wallet and digital asset custody services in its Sber and Sber Investments apps by early December. The law continues to prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies for payment of goods and services within Russia but allows for foreign trade cross-border settlements between residents and non-residents.

Analyst: Waller rekindles the possibility of a rate hike in September, but the key still depends on the September non-farm payroll and CPI data

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.

first_img SemiAnalysis: HBF non-HBM alternative, cost and heat dissipation still have uncertainties

P Equity Research and SemiAnalysis researcher Nick Doyle and others discussed high bandwidth flash (HBF) in X Space. Nick stated that it is still too early to determine how much the cost premium of HBF relative to HBM can shrink; existing data mostly comes from vendor claims, such as Sandisk stating that the cost per bit is about one-eighth that of HBM. Yields, testing, and other factors will improve with scale, but structural costs such as TSV, stacking, and pSLC mode will always exist, and durability is a key unknown; if wear exceeds expectations, costs will rise.The application scenarios for HBF are narrow, targeting only AI inference, especially low batch and long context MoE models, and it is not a substitute for HBM. The actual bandwidth target is about 1.6 TB/s, which is at the HBM3E level, suitable for sequential reads to load model weights, more aligned with the capacity needs of a small number of GPUs in local or private enterprises, rather than ultra-large-scale bandwidth scenarios. Heat dissipation reliability has not yet been resolved; flash memory will degrade faster at high temperatures next to GPUs, and mitigation measures such as UCIe separation and daily refresh have yet to be validated.In terms of manufacturing, Sandisk/Kioxia has experience with 3D NAND, and SK Hynix complements HBM-style stacking capabilities, but mass production is still to be confirmed. Overall, storage is shifting towards a specialized layered market, with NAND shortages expected to continue until 2028, and HBF may further impact supply and demand.
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