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According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the prediction market Polymarket for the "Spurs vs. Timberwolves" event, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Julius Randle: Assists O/U 0.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 64.5% an hour ago to the current 93.5% (a fluctuation of 29%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Polymarket announced the latest developments and feature updates, including the launch of measures to mitigate latency spam to ensure order placement and cancellation operations, fixing the "insufficient balance/authorization" error, and another core issue affecting limit buy orders is expected to be resolved in the coming days.In addition, Polymarket stated that it has identified and banned multiple clusters of ghost-fill accounts, which were all created before the deposit wallet system went live. Currently, any occurrence of ghost-fill behavior will be identified and banned, and the deposit wallet system will also prevent the continued bulk creation of new accounts. More updates will be released in the coming week to address previously outstanding issues.

In February this year, several Chinese citizens were raided by the police at a rented villa in Country Heights, Kajang, Malaysia. The police claimed to suspect that the Chinese citizens were involved in fraud, and subsequently, the Chinese citizens were forced to transfer about $50,000 (approximately 200,000 ringgit) in USDT. The police later arrested 12 officers involved in the case and removed them from frontline duties, but the investigation still awaits technical reports and digital evidence results, and there has been no breakthrough to date.Lawyer Charles, representing eight Chinese victims, stated that the investigation is progressing too slowly. Since the arrest of the 12 involved police officers, there has been no further information, raising suspicions of internal interference attempting to suppress the case. He warned that if there is internal protection, he will file a complaint with the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

The market has currently priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will extend the pause on interest rate hikes, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.

According to the trading analysis platform Polymarket Polyinsider, the address 0xc6dd...89F made a precise bet on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire event, achieving a daily profit of $34,000, setting a recent best performance. This address belongs to a high-win-rate "fundamental" trader, with a historical total win rate of 70.4%, and has realized a cumulative profit of approximately $78,800.Data analysis shows that today's significant profit is mainly due to its accurate judgment on the event "Russia and Ukraine will cease fire before June 30, 2026." This event has been successfully settled with a "YES" result. The trader not only recorded a daily trading volume of over $1 million but also successfully locked in the largest single profit in recent times. As of now, this address has accumulated a total of 2,526 trades, with a historical maximum drawdown controlled at approximately $14,000.

According to Decrypt, Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf announced its first-quarter financial report, with a net loss of $427 million, compared to a loss of $61.4 million in the same period last year. The company's revenue was $34 million, of which 60% (approximately $21 million) came from AI computing business, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 117%; revenue from Bitcoin mining, on the other hand, decreased by 50% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $13 million.The CEO stated that the first quarter is a year of execution, and the company has established a complete platform, transforming its foundation into operational performance and recurring revenue. TeraWulf CFO Patrick Fleury mentioned that the company is shifting towards a more stable contracted revenue model, reducing its reliance on the volatility of Bitcoin mining. The company will continue to repurpose some of its Bitcoin mining operations to support higher-value high-performance computing workloads.

According to Bits.media, the State Duma's Committee on National Construction and Legislation in Russia has suggested passing the government's proposed criminal liability bill for illegal cryptocurrency mining in the first reading.The bill will add Article 171.6 "Illegal Mining of Digital Assets and Activities of Mining Infrastructure Operators" to the Criminal Code, applicable to mining activities not registered in the national registry and unlicensed provision of mining infrastructure services. The severity of penalties will depend on the seriousness of the crime: for income or losses exceeding 3.5 million rubles, fines can reach up to 1.5 million rubles or two years' income, or compulsory labor for up to two years; for crimes committed by organized groups or income exceeding 13 million rubles, fines can reach up to 2.5 million rubles or three years' income, compulsory labor or imprisonment for up to five years, and may also include additional fines of up to 400,000 rubles or six months' income. In all cases, confiscation of the mined cryptocurrency is stipulated. The government states that currently about 50,000 entities in Russia are engaged in mining, but only 1,489 (609 legal entities and 880 individual entrepreneurs) are registered in the national registry.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market event "Knicks vs. 76ers" on Polymarket, the "yes" option for the sub-market "Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win probability, dropping from 40.5% an hour ago to the current 24.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently issued a notice reminding the public to be cautious of certain unlicensed platforms and related market promotional activities, mentioning HabitTrade.In response, HabitTrade issued a statement claiming that it is a licensed Australian brokerage and compliant financial services platform, and has not conducted any regulated business in Hong Kong, nor promoted or provided related services to the public in Hong Kong.The statement also pointed out that some third-party promotional content, video materials, and platform traffic diversion activities that have recently appeared in the market do not represent the official position of HabitTrade. The company reserves the right to trace and take legal action against any misleading promotions and violations using its brand, technological channels, or partnerships without authorization.HabitTrade stated that it will continue to adhere to a compliance-first approach and cooperate with the regulatory requirements of relevant jurisdictions to conduct necessary investigations.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the Bitcoin market is still dominated by the futures market, with the recent bullish momentum mainly coming from investors gradually returning to the derivatives market. Although the funding rate has remained negative for several weeks, the open interest in Bitcoin has recorded its largest increase since 2026, surpassing the increase during the historical peak period of 2025.Darkfost pointed out that while this reflects a slow return of market optimism, it has also led to a more fragile market structure, where high leverage positions can easily amplify volatility and liquidation risks.

Glassnode analysis indicates that Bitcoin has broken through key resistance, rising to $82,000 - $83,000, ending several weeks of narrow fluctuations, and market volatility has returned.Options data shows that the short-term 1-week implied volatility has rebounded by about 6 points, while long-term volatility remains moderate, and short-term trading demand has quickly recovered. In terms of sentiment and positioning, the 25 delta skew is converging towards neutral, with reduced demand for downside hedging; short-term outlook is slightly bearish, while long-term has turned bullish, with upward expectations being repriced. Structurally, implied volatility exceeds realized volatility, and the VRP has turned positive; there is a concentration zone of about $2 billion in "short gamma" around $82,000, which may amplify volatility. Over the past 24 hours, the proportion of call options sold is 81%, indicating that the market tends to consolidate.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued a notice stating that it has become aware of online videos enticing the public to use the StableStock platform, claiming that virtual currency can be used to subscribe for Hong Kong stock IPOs. StableStock also claims to be collaborating with another company, HabitTrade.In fact, neither StableStock nor HabitTrade has been licensed by the SFC and is not permitted to engage in any regulated activities in Hong Kong; furthermore, they are prohibited from promoting services to the public in Hong Kong, whether inside or outside the territory. The SFC has included StableStock and HabitTrade on its warning list. The SFC reminds the public that unlicensed platforms are not regulated by the SFC, and the protections available to investors are very limited, with the possibility of incurring total losses.

The National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Data Bureau jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Bidirectional Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy," proposing to initially establish a safe, green, and economical energy security system supporting AI development by 2027, and to achieve world-leading research and application of AI-specific technologies in the energy sector by 2030.The key points of the plan include: coordinating the layout of new energy bases and computing power hubs, exploring direct connections between nuclear power and hydrogen energy to computing power facilities; promoting computing power facilities to increase the proportion of green electricity and energy efficiency, and improving carbon emission accounting; achieving synergy between computing power and electricity through market-based electricity trading; opening up high-value AI application scenarios in power grids, coal, oil and gas, and energy storage; accelerating breakthroughs in large energy models and the application of autonomous intelligent computing chips, and providing supporting support in standards, funding, talent, and other aspects.

According to Bloomberg, as crypto-native companies like Coinbase continue to lay off employees on a large scale and the industry as a whole is in a downturn, traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan and BlackRock have recently bucked the trend by posting dozens of digital asset-related positions, becoming a major highlight in the current crypto job market.Analysts point out that having a background in Wall Street has become an important asset for crypto talent to maintain their competitive edge in employment during the industry's downturn.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have stated that Bitcoin is gradually surpassing gold as a currency devaluation hedge tool following the Iran conflict.Analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows for the third consecutive month in May, while gold ETFs are still struggling to recover the funds that flowed out during the outbreak of the Iran conflict in March. This indicates that since the conflict began, retail investors are choosing Bitcoin over gold for devaluation hedge trades.The analysts stated that Bitcoin purchases are not limited to retail investors through ETFs. JPMorgan's position proxy indicators based on CME Bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures have also reached new highs, indicating that institutional investors are similarly increasing their exposure. The momentum signals for Bitcoin and gold have also rebounded since the conflict began. Investors are also indirectly buying Bitcoin through Strategy, with the company's purchase volume potentially reaching around $30 billion this year if the current pace is maintained.

The U.S. Treasury Department has sent a letter to Binance, requesting compliance explanations regarding recent reports involving cryptocurrency transactions related to Iran and to strengthen regulatory cooperation.It is reported that this move comes amid ongoing scrutiny by U.S. regulators over cross-border capital flows on cryptocurrency platforms. Previous investigations and media reports have pointed to the possibility that Iran and related entities may be transferring funds through centralized exchanges, drawing the attention of the U.S. Treasury and Justice Departments.

Anthropic's implied valuation in the on-chain Pre-IPO market has risen to $1.2 trillion (approximately 8.7 trillion RMB), officially surpassing OpenAI, with its pre-IPO valuation now about 20% higher than OpenAI's. If it goes public at this valuation, it will directly land as the 11th largest publicly traded company in the world, only behind Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, TSMC, Broadcom, Tesla, and Saudi Aramco.

NanoVita officially announced on platform X that to significantly enhance scarcity and create long-term value for every holder, the team has injected 99% of the total supply of $NANA into a black hole address as per the agreement and permanently destroyed it. Market data shows that $NANA has peaked at over $0.15, with a 24-hour increase of 80%.It is reported that NanoVita is a decentralized science (DeSci) protocol that integrates nanotechnology, AI biological intelligence, and real-world health data, aiming to build an open and transparent health research infrastructure.

According to The Block, South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb has announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with SSI Digital (SSID) to provide digital asset trading services in Vietnam. This strategic cooperation was signed in March of this year, focusing on jointly establishing and operating a digital asset exchange. SSID is a subsidiary of the Vietnamese securities company SSI, primarily investing in startups in the blockchain and AI sectors.It is reported that Bithumb has recently postponed its IPO plans to 2028, which was originally scheduled for the second half of 2025. Earlier this year, the exchange faced a human error incident when an employee mistakenly distributed 620,000 bitcoins to customers, leading to criticism and scrutiny over its apparent lack of internal risk management.