S&P 500

Traders expect the S&P 500 index to experience the largest volatility on a non-farm payroll day since the regional banking crisis in March 2023

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by 1.3% this Friday, which will be the largest fluctuation on a non-farm payroll data release day since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Citigroup data shows that the S&P 500 index is expected to have a two-way fluctuation of 1.4% on Wednesday, marking the highest implied volatility since the day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2023.The increase in market volatility is mainly influenced by two factors: the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Trump recently warned of potential future economic fluctuations and defended his plan to significantly raise tariffs, but U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo indicated that Trump is considering some tariff relief measures, which has slightly eased market sentiment.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at its highest level since December of last year, breaking through the 20-point mark. Economists expect that U.S. employment will increase by 160,000 in February, the unemployment rate will remain at 4%, and average hourly earnings will rise by 4.1% year-on-year. UBS equity derivatives strategist Grinkov stated, "Macroeconomic factors are becoming more important; this is a higher volatility environment."

Michael Saylor: The accounting rules coming into effect next year may enable MicroStrategy to meet the S&P 500 earnings requirements

ChainCatcher news, according to Barrons, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor did not explicitly state whether the company might be included in the S&P 500 during a recent interview, but he mentioned that, given the optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy could report billions of dollars in quarterly net income next year due to the increase in the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The accounting rule changes set to take effect in 2025 may allow MicroStrategy to meet the profitability requirements for joining the S&P 500.It is reported that MicroStrategy's traditional software business (its main business before it began acquiring Bitcoin in large quantities in 2020) is relatively small, with a valuation of only about $1 billion. Additionally, this business is currently operating at a loss according to GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), making it difficult to meet the inclusion requirements for the S&P 500 index based solely on this. The upcoming accounting rules will adjust the company's Bitcoin holdings from their current undervalued state to fair market value, potentially leading to significant net income growth when Bitcoin prices rise. However, the S&P Global Index Committee decides on S&P 500 index members by invitation, reviewing profitability, market capitalization, and other factors.
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