Risk

Viewpoint: The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will provide support for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the market in January 2025 will face multiple risks and opportunities against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration and the release of non-farm data. Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, pointed out that the period from November to January is usually a strong performance time for the market. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index performs well during the last five trading days of December and early January, known as the "Santa Claus rally." The upcoming employment data and corporate earnings reports will provide key insights into the economic health of the market.Helen Given, Deputy Head of Trading at Monex USA, emphasized that the inauguration of a new government is often accompanied by high uncertainty. The trade policies of the Trump administration could have a significant impact on the global currency market, and the actual effects of policy implementation remain to be seen. Given believes that investors need to pay attention to the actual implementation of proposed policies, which may affect currencies such as the euro, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar.Damon Polistina, Head of Research at Eaglebrook Advisors, mentioned that a pro-crypto Trump administration could bring positive catalysts to the crypto market. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts may support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and any positive economic data will further drive market momentum.

Analysis: The SOL price chart shows a "bullish reversal" pattern, which may provide low-risk opportunities for trend breakout traders

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, renowned crypto analyst Omkar Godbolev published an analysis stating that the price chart of SOL shows a "bullish return" pattern. According to technical analysis theory, this pattern is seen as a low-risk opportunity for trend breakout traders. The price of SOL surged over 7% this week to $193, rebounding from a previous resistance level identified by a trendline connecting the highs of March and July, which has now turned into support. This line, along with the line connecting the lows of April and August, defines a large descending channel that includes long-term fluctuations from March to October. The price of SOL broke out of this channel in early November, confirming the bullish inclination. SOL quickly climbed above $260, then retraced to the breakout point last week, which technical analysts refer to as a bullish "return pattern."Technical analysis masters Charles D. Kirkpatrick II and Julie R. Dahlquist stated in their book Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians: "A pullback occurs when the price breaks upward and then 'retracts' to its breakout level. Retracements are excellent levels to participate in an upward trend. Their timing and distance are often short, but they typically provide a second, lower-risk entry opportunity for breakout traders." Breakout traders look for assets that struggle to surpass specific levels. When the price finally breaks through, these traders enter the market, anticipating significant volatility in the direction of the breakout. Trading breakouts requires constant market monitoring and careful assessment of price and volume trends. Traders who miss the initial breakout often hope to enter during a successful retracement, just like SOL. These entry points are usually considered lower risk because potential exit points or stop-losses can be set just below the breakout point.Prospect theory suggests that people tend to avoid risk when realizing gains. In other words, when potential profits arise, traders often take those gains rather than letting winning trades continue. This trend explains why the first pullback after a breakout does not last long and prices typically retreat to the breakout point. This is because traders who entered with the breakout quickly take profits during the subsequent rise. Traders who missed the first breakout may view the retracement as a second entry opportunity. They go long at the breakout point, ensuring that the support level holds. This explains the rebound of SOL from a key level. If SOL continues to rise, those who took profits shortly after the initial breakout may regret doing so and buy new long positions, further enhancing the bullish momentum, and this is how trends develop. In the second half of 2023, a similar return pattern played out perfectly in Bitcoin, laying the groundwork for a massive bull market. Note that if the price of SOL fails to rebound, the bullish retracement pattern will fail, allowing for a pullback back into the channel.

SoSoValue: Today's market risk sentiment VIX index has risen to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates). The market may be overreacting, and it is recommended to maintain risk exposure

ChainCatcher message, according to the SoSoValue macro sector display, on December 18th, at the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 4.25%-4.50%. For the rate cut pace next year, the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations from "four rate cuts" to "two" through the latest dot plot. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised its expectations for future core PCE inflation and GDP growth, which is consistent with Powell's remarks, all conveying a more "hawkish" signal than the market expected. Data shows that the market risk sentiment VIX index rose to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates).SoSoValue analysts stated that the FOMC proposed an unexpectedly aggressive rate cut plan, coupled with Powell's "hawkish" remarks, led to a shift in market sentiment towards panic, with U.S. Treasuries even overreacting. The U.S. stock market subsequently corrected, while the dollar strengthened. Overall, all risk assets reacted strongly to the FOMC's latest signals. Based on macro data, we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain unchanged, the dollar remains strong, and consensus-driven assets such as cryptocurrencies continue to be a destination for capital inflows. Each market correction driven by sentiment in the game is a good entry point, and we recommend maintaining risk exposure at this time.
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