ChainCatcher news, summary of key points from Powell's speech on April 16:Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, waiting for clearer signals before considering policy adjustments.Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains "robust," with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, GDP growth may slow compared to last year.Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push up inflation; March PCE year-on-year is expected to be 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; unemployment rate is expected to rise.Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see "partial easing."Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.Market Reaction: After a decline, the U.S. dollar index rebounded and then fell again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the global market has been highly volatile amid the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs and expectations of Fed easing. After a rollercoaster ride, U.S. stocks made a strong rebound last week, with the three major indices achieving their best performance in over a year. The S&P rose a cumulative 5.7%, marking its best weekly performance since November 2023. The Dow increased by 4.95%, and the Nasdaq rose by 7.29%. The index of the seven tech giants surged by 8.95%, with Nvidia standing out, posting a weekly gain of 17.62%.The cryptocurrency market has also been highly volatile. Bitcoin, influenced by the risk-averse sentiment triggered by the tariff war, plummeted to nearly $74,000 at the beginning of the week. However, following Trump's announcement to suspend reciprocal tariffs and release an exemption list, market sentiment improved, and Bitcoin gradually rebounded, surpassing $86,000 at its peak. As of the time of writing, it was at $84,408, with a weekly increase of nearly 7%. Other altcoins also saw significant rebounds, although Ethereum's overall performance remained weak.In the forex market, Trump's aggressive tariffs have weakened the dollar's safe-haven status, causing the dollar index to fall below the 100 mark to its lowest level since 2022, with a weekly decline of 2.9%, marking the largest weekly drop in nearly two years. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive week due to demand concerns; meanwhile, safe-haven demand surged, pushing gold prices to new highs, with spot gold rising a cumulative 6.48% last week.Despite the market rebound last week amid tariff policy easing, Trump's latest statements denying "exemptions" from tariffs indicate that policy uncertainty remains a major risk. U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in below expectations, and the minutes from the Fed's March meeting suggest that inflation may be more persistent. This week, close attention should be paid to Trump's tariff dynamics and Powell's speeches.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the financial website Forexlive stated that the importance of Powell's speech on Friday will outweigh the non-farm payroll data. The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in June, but all comments from Federal Reserve officials on tariff issues have become more hawkish.If Powell's wording also turns hawkish, then be cautious as the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may undergo a significant repricing.

ChainCatcher news, during the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the decline in U.S. stocks narrowed, with the Dow Jones briefly turning positive, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 index declines narrowing to 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the dollar is trading steadily as investors focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and look forward to the U.S. inflation data to be released tonight. Powell stated during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.He will speak to the House Financial Services Committee tonight at 11 PM. Credit Suisse analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a report that lower-than-expected inflation data would alleviate concerns about price pressures and weaken the dollar.Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could support further increases in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while dampening risk appetite.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a dialogue at 04:00 AM Beijing time on November 15 (Friday), marking his first public speech since the November FOMC meeting, where he may comment on recent economic data. Investors and economists will closely watch for his clues regarding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and the policy outlook for 2025. In recent speeches, Powell emphasized the risk balance of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate—stabilizing inflation and supporting maximum employment. He described the Fed's rate-cutting path as a "normalization" of policy.Wednesday's interest rate futures market pricing suggests that there is over an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 17-18. The update to the policymakers' quarterly economic projections in September showed a median forecast of a 1 percentage point rate cut in 2024, followed by another 1 percentage point cut in 2025. Officials will update the "dot plot" at the December meeting, which may indicate the policy path for 2025 and beyond.

ChainCatcher news, last week the "Trump Trade" created a stir in the market. Trump's return to the White House and the Republican Party's potential landslide victory in Congress, along with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, have settled two major risk events, driving a significant rebound in the financial markets.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks surged rapidly, with all three major indices hitting new highs last week, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded their best weekly performance of the year. Specifically, the S&P 500 index rose 4.66% over the week, the Dow gained 4.61%, and the Nasdaq increased by 5.74%. Tesla soared to a new high since April 2022, with a weekly gain of 29.01%, pushing its market cap above $1 trillion. Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple to become the world's most valuable company, with a weekly increase of 9.03%. The total market capitalization of the seven tech giants grew by nearly $94 billion over the week.Benefiting from Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and the prospect of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, setting a new historical high. As of the time of publication, it was at $81,635, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 18%. Ethereum was reported at $3,207, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 30%. Altcoins collectively surged, generally outperforming the market, boosting market sentiment.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose last week, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% over six consecutive weeks, while non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations over the week; early in the week, OPEC+ announced another delay in production increases, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, U.S. EIA crude oil supplies hit a new high since August, dragging down the weekly oil price gains, with Brent crude rising 1.09% for the week. Spot gold fell 1.85% over the week due to a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's indication of an open attitude towards pausing rate cuts.With the U.S. elections concluded, investors will now refocus on the outlook for monetary policy and corporate earnings, continuing to assess the impact of Trump's policy expectations. This week, many Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the latest U.S. CPI data, PPI data, and retail sales figures will serve as important references for investors to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts at LHMeyer wrote that Fed Chairman Powell's speech provided little new information but offered a clue on how the Fed is considering the December decision.Powell emphasized that the Fed will not react to the expected policies of the Trump administration (which are believed to potentially trigger inflation) but will focus on current data. This indicates that the Fed retains the freedom to continue cutting interest rates. Analysts believe that the Fed is most likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points next month.

ChainCatcher news, on Monday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated during a speech that if the economy performs as expected, there may be two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points. The market perceives Powell's overall remarks as "hawkish." Following Powell's speech, the market significantly reduced the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.According to 4E observations, the three major U.S. stock indices fell after Powell's speech but began to rise in the final trading hours, ultimately closing slightly higher, with both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 reaching new closing highs. Historically, U.S. stocks perform poorly in September, but this year the Dow rose 1.85%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.02%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.68%. Notably, the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded five consecutive monthly gains.The cryptocurrency market generally declined, with Bitcoin down 1.81% at $63,600, and Ethereum slightly down by 0.27%. Data shows that Bitcoin rose 7.35% in September, marking its best historical performance. It is worth noting that historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has continued to rise until the end of the year. Gold fell by 0.47%, with a 4.74% increase in September; the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.30%, with a cumulative decline of 0.93% in September.After the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut in September, the pace of global central bank rate cuts has accelerated, significantly improving the macro environment and increasing investors' risk appetite. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. This Friday, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September will be released, providing further key insights into the U.S. economic situation and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, an IG analyst stated in a report: "A 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is still considered a possibility."Powell's speech is unlikely to change many views, although he may reiterate his comments on the Federal Reserve's recent rate decision.Tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the National Association for Business Economics, where he may indicate the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets' crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated, "Bitcoin appears to be overbought on the daily chart, with prices starting to pull back after reaching a high of $66,498 last Friday, and momentum has weakened since last week."Lucas pointed out that Ethereum is also facing challenges in regaining momentum, as it lost momentum after breaking above the 50-day simple moving average last week. According to TheBlock's Ethereum price page, Ethereum has dropped 1.69% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $2,626. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on two key macroeconomic events this week: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the National Association for Business Economics on Monday, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report released on Friday. Lucas stated, "Powell's remarks, especially those regarding inflation and interest rates, often influence the market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Any hawkish tone could further exacerbate risk-off sentiment, leading to today's decline."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Bank economists stated in a report regarding Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday that the Federal Reserve's concern about the cooling of the U.S. labor market still calls for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rather than 50 basis points.Bank of America stated that although Powell's tone was relatively dovish, "we do not believe he opened the door wider for a 50 basis point cut." "On the contrary, he implicitly supports a gradual reduction in rates." If the risk of recession increases, larger cuts will occur. "A very weak employment report could bring this about, but the decline in unemployment claims suggests this should not be the baseline scenario."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that Powell holds a dovish stance, indicating that there is enough room to address any potential risks. I think this is a key point. What he means is that if the labor market continues to weaken, we might see a 50 basis point rate cut in September instead of 25 basis points."Now is the time for policy adjustment; we do not seek nor welcome further cooling of the labor market." This is another key point that suggests a 50 basis point rate cut in September. He seems to be responding to the significant adjustments made to the non-farm data a few days ago. Today, Powell appeared relatively dovish, and we saw the market respond accordingly. I believe we will have two rate cuts this year, totaling 75 basis points, especially if the August non-farm employment report shows further weakness.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates following Chairman Powell's speech.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payrolls overnight highlighted the weakness in the labor market, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, triggering a wave of selling.However, the minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that some policymakers were willing to cut rates, which released a more dovish stance aimed at balancing inflation and employment goals, thereby alleviating these concerns. This dovish tone boosted risk assets, pushing Bitcoin prices above $61,800, with strong buying on Coinbase continuing until 4 AM Singapore time. Aggressive buy orders on Coinbase (indicating domestic demand in the U.S.) are a good signal for the short-term trend.Now, the market's focus shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole, with expectations of gaining more signals regarding interest rate cuts. Given that the market is generally betting on rate cuts, unexpected economic data could have a significant impact on the market.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin has risen by 4% since yesterday, consistent with its bullish outlook. Bitcoin made a decisive upward move, breaking through the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential for further upside.With the support of an increase of $1 billion in open interest, Bitcoin's funding rate has returned to a premium. Considering these dynamics, a straightforward strategy is to go long on Bitcoin while shorting Ethereum, as Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with its share of open positions increasingly deviating in favor of Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were as expected, with a strong focus on the employment aspect of its dual mandate.According to current economic data forecasts, the inflation target seems within reach. "The vast majority" of FOMC members support a rate cut in September, with several members even considering a rate cut in July as a viable option. This makes a rate cut in September almost inevitable. Powell's upcoming speech on Friday is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, potentially boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, as monetary policy provides a favorable backdrop. The Federal Reserve's focus in decision-making is shifting towards employment, making inflation data less significant, especially with CPI trending towards 2.5% in the coming months. Multiple rate cuts may be needed to sustain the current economic expansion.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart today stating that Trump is recently leading Kamala Harris in some election polls, and his friendly stance towards Bitcoin may help revive the crypto market.At the same time, the Nasdaq index has rebounded since the flash crash on August 5, with tech stocks soaring, but Bitcoin's price has lagged behind.As Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak this week, his dovish tone may boost Bitcoin and narrow the gap with the Nasdaq.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport has released its latest view stating that Bitcoin is at a critical point of breaking out of the current narrowing triangle pattern. An upward breakout could trigger positive momentum; conversely, a price rebound expectation may be prolonged.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at Jackson Hole, and the stock market is expected to rebound in advance. Additionally, the release of the last FOMC meeting minutes may bring dovish signals.