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JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

Duan Yongping's estimated unrealized loss on his holdings in Pop Mart is approximately HKD 1.87 billion to HKD 2.12 billion

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's equity disclosure, Duan Yongping holds 106,716,000 shares of Pop Mart (09992.HK) through his investment entities, accounting for 8.01% of the issued shares. Based on the stock price of HKD 132.50 on October 27, the market value of the holdings is approximately HKD 14.14 billion.In terms of cost, Jiemian News quoted market estimates on October 26, indicating that the average comprehensive holding cost is around HKD 150 per share; Lan Jing News previously estimated the comprehensive cost to be about HKD 152.32 per share. The corresponding paper losses are approximately HKD 1.868 billion and HKD 2.115 billion, with loss ratios of about 11.67% and 13.01%. The relevant purchase records are: 9.8232 million shares bought on May 25 at an average price of HKD 150; 4.66 million shares bought on May 28 at an average price of HKD 162.5; 10.59 million shares bought on July 6, calculated at approximately HKD 150; and an additional 1 million shares on September 1 at an average price of HKD 155. The first three transactions total approximately 25.07 million shares, with an investment of about HKD 3.816 billion, and a weighted average price of approximately HKD 152.4.The above is based on media estimates of costs and is not the actual investment gains and losses disclosed by Duan Yongping; part of the underlying position comes from options trading, and the complete holding cost cannot be independently verified solely based on public information. Pop Mart's announcement shows that overall revenue for the third quarter of 2026 (unaudited) is expected to decline by 45% to 50% compared to the third quarter of 2025; a decline of 25% to 30% in China, 65% to 70% in the Asia-Pacific region, 70% to 75% in the Americas, and 50% to 55% in Europe and other regions; offline channels in China are expected to decline by 5% to 10%, while online channels are expected to decline by 45% to 50%.

first_img China's artificial intelligence stocks have significantly declined, with the STAR50 dropping 40% in the past four months

Reuters reported on October 26 that amid fluctuations in global tech stocks, Chinese artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related stocks have already declined. The STAR50 index, dominated by mainland artificial intelligence and semiconductor leaders, has dropped 40% in less than four months, with a market value evaporating by about $480 billion. The CSI 300 index has fallen about 20% from its June peak, interrupting nearly two years of gains. Beijing fund manager Dong Baozhen said: The stock market has evolved into a speculative frenzy bull market, and now the bubble is bursting. Traders noted that the decline does not have a clear single trigger factor; high prices, tax bills, and the possibility of the U.S. or other countries banning Chinese equipment from entering data centers have all had an impact. During the same period, the Nasdaq has retreated 6% from its record high three weeks ago.Goldman Sachs stated that AI stocks account for 42% of China's market value and 57% of the trading volume of mainland A-shares and Hong Kong H-shares. When the robotics company Yushu went public, retail investors oversubscribed by about 8,000 times, and since trading began in August, its stock price has fallen by about half; chip company Changxin Storage has dropped more than a quarter in the past month. Mu Xi Integrated Circuit and Moore Threads saw their stock prices rise by about 700% and 400% respectively on their first day of trading last year, but have also fallen by about half since July. Optical module companies Zhongji Xuchuang and Guangxun Technology have dropped about 60% from their June and July peaks, partly due to the U.S. moving towards banning these companies from supplying to U.S. data centers. Hainan investor Chen Wensheng said: He bought Yushu because he felt official support and that there were state-owned background funds investing, but he is currently suffering losses with friends.The STAR50 is currently still about 100 times its past earnings, having fallen from a high of nearly 250 times, with investors comparing it to the Nasdaq 100's price-to-earnings ratio of about 30 times. Hong Hao, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management in Hong Kong, said: The current situation will cause many companies trying to go public to pause. Leo Wang, a partner at Beijing Qianchuang Capital, said: Overemphasizing the market capitalization weight of tech companies in major indices will create serious bubbles in certain industries and siphon off funds from other sectors. Wang Zhuo, a partner at Shanghai Zhuozhu Investment Management, said: Chip manufacturers and AI suppliers will ultimately fall into price wars like other Chinese manufacturers. HSBC Research stated that Asian funds have generally been selling over the past three months but are still overweight in China; Goldman Sachs' updated recommendation list this month includes Zhongji Xuchuang and Changxin Storage. The China Securities Regulatory Commission did not immediately respond to Reuters' inquiries; Chairman Wu Qing met with market participants earlier this month to hear suggestions for improving the capital market.
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