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Flash

The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in Congress raises concerns about AI regulation, leading to a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks

After the Democratic Party won the midterm elections, U.S. stocks surged significantly on Wednesday, but as investors continued to pull out of tech stocks for the second consecutive trading day, the Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 3.3%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 489 points, a decline of 0.9%. Although stocks like Chevron and Johnson & Johnson rose, it was not enough to offset the drag on the Dow from the tech stock sell-off. AI-related stocks, especially those in the chip industry and data centers, fell for the second day in a row.According to Gate market data, AMD (AMD.O) fell by 12%, Micron Technology (MU.O) dropped by 9%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) decreased by 8.8%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell by 5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 8%, reaching a new low since April 20. The Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped more than 10% from its closing record high set on October 6.Investors are concerned that the Democratic Party controlling both houses of Congress and winning key gubernatorial elections may lead to more regulation of AI infrastructure development across the United States.Jordan Watson, portfolio manager at Tandem Investment Advisors, stated that the stock market surge and the trend of funds pulling out of AI stocks may only be a temporary phenomenon. However, as investors digest the election results and their potential policy impacts, the market may face more volatility.

Serenity: Investors are indiscriminately selling off assets in the AI industry chain, with some storage stocks' valuations dropping to an annualized price-to-earnings ratio of 1.6 times

Investor Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) posted that the current market deleveraging has become quite severe, with investors indiscriminately selling stocks related to the AI industry chain. Some companies' stock prices have even fallen back to levels before significant orders and performance expectations were realized.Serenity cited the storage chip company ESMT as an example, noting that the company has a market capitalization of about $2 billion, achieving a gross profit of $526.2 million and a net profit of $330 million in the third quarter, with net assets of approximately $937 million, of which net cash is about $740 million. Based on current performance annualized, its price-to-earnings ratio is only about 1.6 times. Despite ongoing market concerns about the cycle peaking, unsustainable profits, and lack of competitive barriers, the trend of DDR2 and DDR3 production lines exiting is tightening supply, and ESMT expects to hedge against declining consumer demand in the fourth quarter by raising product average prices.Serenity also pointed out that manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are gradually exiting DDR2 and DDR3 production lines, and Nanya Technology has also stopped related production lines, while ESMT's revenue mainly comes from these two types of storage products. It believes that the market underestimates the price support brought by the contraction of traditional storage supply and ignores the situation where Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and SanDisk are locking in profitability through long-term supply agreements and price floors. Serenity criticized that the market is selling off AI and storage industry chain companies that actually generate substantial cash flow while shifting funds to companies like Walmart, which has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 47 times, and CrowdStrike, which has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 180 times. The current focus is not on the actual free cash flow generated by companies but rather on indiscriminate selling.

Anthropic applies zero-knowledge proof technology to AI reasoning to prevent model swapping

Anthropic has open-sourced FlashProve, bringing the commonly used zkSNARK (zero-knowledge proof) technology from the cryptocurrency field into AI model inference.This technology was originally designed to prove the validity of blockchain transactions without disclosing transaction details. Anthropic aims to use it to solve another problem: when users pay a high price for an AI model's API, how can they know if the service provider has secretly switched to a cheaper model?FlashProve allows service providers to first generate encrypted fingerprints for the model weights and then provide mathematical proof for the inference results. Users do not need to obtain the model weights or rerun the model; they can check whether the specified output comes from the previously committed set of weights. Claude was also involved in the development and optimization of this system.Anthropic has already completed experiments on Meta's 400 billion parameter model Llama 4 Maverick. For every 1024 tokens of context processed, the generated proof is about 19 MB, and verification on a regular CPU takes about 17 seconds.However, currently, each proof can only verify one output token and cannot validate an entire response. The GPU computation time required to generate the proof is also about 70 to 95 times that of regular inference. Whether it can be used to identify API service providers that secretly switch models in the future will depend on when the cost of proof generation can be reduced.

JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.
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