Matrixport: The "Spring Festival Market" for Bitcoin may reappear, with an 83% probability of rising in previous years
ChainCatcher news, according to the latest report released by Matrixport, over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns during the Chinese New Year for 11 years, with a statistical success rate of 83% proving the gains during this period.Bitcoin is currently in a complex interaction of opposing forces. On the technical side, the daily reversal indicator reached oversold levels last week, suggesting potential support, while the weekly indicators still indicate that Bitcoin is in an overbought state. On the macroeconomic front, adverse factors such as tightening liquidity and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have brought bearish sentiment. At the same time, bullish drivers such as expectations for the U.S. to establish Bitcoin reserves and the rise of a pro-crypto Trump administration provide support.Since the FOMC meeting in December 2024, the minting of stablecoins has stagnated, reflecting a decrease in fiat inflows, but Bitcoin funding rates show early signs of a recovery in trading activity. This tug-of-war dynamic has placed Bitcoin in a consolidation phase. However, with the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year on January 29, this period represents a statistically favorable 20-day trading window for Bitcoin, potentially providing numerous opportunities for bullish positions.