Standard Chartered Bank: The U.S. recession theory is exaggerated, expecting two more rate cuts this year

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of G10 Foreign Exchange Research and North American Macro Strategy, Steven Englander, stated that despite the slowdown in economic growth, market concerns about a U.S. economic recession may be overstated. Although high interest rates and government spending issues continue to raise worries, he believes that economic data does not fully support the most pessimistic scenarios.

Englander pointed out that in the coming months, falling energy prices and improved weather conditions may boost consumer spending, thereby supporting economic growth. Englander expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, in the second and third quarters, respectively. However, due to ongoing fiscal policy support for government spending, the likelihood of further rate cuts is low. In contrast, given stable inflation and wage growth, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice, which would allow the yen to perform better than other major currencies.

The recent wave of U.S. tariffs may push up inflation, but the impact is manageable. Englander believes that although tariffs may lead to price increases, the overall impact will still be within a controllable range. He also predicts that the U.S. government will use fiscal policy to support economic growth, which may strengthen the dollar in the second half of the year.