ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, analyst James Van Straten stated that the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.02193, marking the lowest level in nearly five years. This indicates that Ethereum has fallen 39% compared to Bitcoin this year, marking the first time since the Bitcoin halving that Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin in the subsequent 12 months.In previous Bitcoin halving cycles, Ethereum typically outperformed Bitcoin in the first year following the halving. However, this time the situation is completely different, with the ETH/BTC ratio declining by over 50% within a year. This is one of the worst quarters for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin since the third quarter of 2019, when the ratio fell to 0.0164, a 46% quarter-over-quarter decline. Analysts suggest that the reasons may include:Deteriorating macroeconomic environment: Tariff-driven trade war threats, persistent high inflation, and rising global bond yields have led investors to prefer more liquid and lower-risk assets.Enhanced safe-haven attributes of Bitcoin: In the crypto market, Bitcoin is viewed as a safer choice compared to Ethereum, similar to the position of gold in traditional markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts pointed out that several key technical indicators have turned bearish, leading to speculation that the bull market cycle may have ended prematurely. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's 4-year cycle remains an important factor. Historical price trends suggest that it is not yet the beginning of a long-term bear market, and the $72,000-$73,000 range remains a key support zone. Global government bond yields and stock trends may determine Bitcoin's next major move.

ChainCatcher message, renowned analyst PlanB, who has 2 million followers on X, released a chart indicating that backtesting historical data shows all Bitcoin price increases are concentrated in the red periods of the chart (6 months before the halving to 18 months after the halving), while the blue periods on the chart are mostly declines.We are currently in the red period, and the bull market is expected to continue for another 9 months (from February to October).

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan questioned the sustainability of Bitcoin's four-year cycle in a letter to clients, stating that recent policy changes in the U.S. could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.Matt Hougan believes that with the influx of institutional investors and the maturation of market structure, Bitcoin's price volatility and cyclicality will become more stable, no longer significantly affected by halving events. The Bitcoin market is entering a new phase dominated by macroeconomic factors and long-term investment strategies. As the crypto market evolves, traditional market cycles may no longer apply, marking a shift towards broader institutional integration and sustained investor interest.

ChainCatcher news, according to analyst Axel Bitblaze, although Bitcoin fell by 10% in January, it typically drops by 25% to 30% in January after previous halving cycles, and subsequently rises by 130% and 2400% within the same year.Bitblaze pointed out that if Bitcoin follows the pattern of the previous cycle, the price could reach over $200,000; if it follows the downward pattern of past cycles, the price could drop below $70,000.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart stating that publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies will regularly disclose their production status and Bitcoin holdings to investors. Historical data shows that, except for the period before halving, these companies usually maintain low Bitcoin inventories. However, the performance after halving is completely different.Mining companies have not compensated for revenue losses due to declining production by selling Bitcoin, but instead have continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. Currently, these companies hold a total of 92,473 Bitcoins on their balance sheets. This strategy makes them more like MicroStrategy, becoming representative institutions of Bitcoin assets.Although Bitcoin prices continue to rise, the stock performance of most mining companies has lagged relatively. However, some mining companies have stood out by diversifying into businesses such as investing in artificial intelligence data centers. This has not only provided them with additional sources of income but also reduced their dependence on Bitcoin production.

ChainCatcher news, Bitcoin infrastructure company Blockstream co-founder Adam Back stated that Bitcoin may be entering a steeper growth phase of the S-curve. He predicts that the "diminishing returns" trend of Bitcoin could be broken and break upward in the next 2-5 years.Back believes that as Bitcoin transitions from the gradual phase to the explosive phase, the rapid influx of new users will create a compounding effect, rendering the diminishing returns theory of halving ineffective. He cited Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney's prediction of a $200 trillion reachable market made in January 2009, suggesting that there is still significant growth potential for Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, it has been 12 years since the first Bitcoin block reward halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.According to market data, the current Bitcoin price is $95,196, and the next halving event is expected to occur in April 2028.

ChainCatcher message, according to community users monitoring on-chain data, after Binance announced the launch of CHEEMS and WHY, the first large purchase address for CHEEMS was 0x94d5Dec1796404ff3544FB09461AF0bC3fb3c2F6, accumulating about 200,000 USD, and ultimately exited with a "halving" loss.The first large purchase address for WHY was 0x03b7C1414857Ae0bCa09116d4A01175D4d9B86ad, accumulating about 200,000 USD, and during the buying process encountered an on-chain trading bot "sandwich attack," ultimately resulting in a loss of about 25,000 USD.

ChainCatcher news, according to iChainfo statistics, Bitcoin has increased by 39% since the current halving period, while during the previous halving period, Bitcoin's price rose by 119% in the same timeframe.iChainfo thus analyzes that the current market may only be in the early stages of a bull market.

ChainCatcher news, the public blockchain Zilliqa tweeted that the proposal to halve mining rewards has been approved. Starting from October, the monthly mining rewards will be reduced by 50% each month.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media that 285 days have passed in 2024, and if Bitcoin cannot start a bull market within 14 days, it will set the record for the longest consolidation period since the halving.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that since the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin mining daily revenue has significantly decreased from $70 million to $31 million. However, mining stocks have performed relatively well, slightly lagging behind Bitcoin but overall better than expected. As revenues gradually bottom out, mining stocks may see a rebound.Many mining companies have chosen to hold Bitcoin inventories, reducing sales on exchanges, which has alleviated market selling pressure. This strategy not only provides shareholders with Bitcoin operational leverage but also increases inventory leverage. MicroStrategy shareholders have reaped substantial returns using a similar strategy.

ChainCatcher news, Rekt Capital analysts indicate that if historical cycle patterns repeat, Bitcoin may be on the verge of a breakout.He pointed out that BTC typically breaks out of its accumulation range 154 to 161 days after a halving. Currently, it has been 157 days since the halving event on April 20, placing it within the breakout timeframe. Analysis shows that BTC has risen about 9% this month, surpassing the 6% performance in September 2016.The analyst noted that history does not always repeat itself in a copy-paste manner, but if it does repeat in this cycle: "Bitcoin should break out of its re-accumulation range in the coming days, that is, this week."Additionally, in the past 11 Octobers, 9 have achieved positive returns, with significant gains in both 2017 and 2021.

ChainCatcher news, according to CryptoSlate, Rekt Capital compared the periods after the Bitcoin halvings in 2020 and 2024 and found significant similarities between the two. After both halving events, Bitcoin entered a reaccumulation phase lasting approximately 161 days. In 2020, this period ended with a parabolic rebound as Bitcoin broke through its repeatedly tested resistance level.The support and resistance levels during these two periods showed continuous testing and retesting, laying the groundwork for potential upward momentum. While historical patterns suggest the possibility of significant changes, differences in market conditions (such as trading volume) highlight that the outcomes may not be the same.A notable difference between the two periods is the trading volume (data in the chart is sourced from Bitstamp). In 2020, the Bitcoin trading volume on Bitstamp during the 161 days following the halving event was 1.183 million, while in 2024, the volume was 313,081. This difference indicates a change in market participation, which could affect the nature of any potential breakout.Since this year's halving, the total trading volume across all exchanges has been 2.5 million, compared to 4 million during the 161 days following the 2020 halving.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Jasper De Maere, research director at the Web3 accelerator Outlier Ventures, stated in a report that investors should accept the fact that "the four-year cycle model no longer exists," as Bitcoin has recorded its worst price performance following a halving this year.Jasper De Maere stated: "Halving no longer has a decisive impact on the price of BTC and other digital assets. As the digital asset market matures, it is time for founders and investors to move away from the concept of the four-year cycle. The last time halving had a significant, fundamental impact on Bitcoin's price was in 2016. Since then, in the context of an increasingly mature and diversified cryptocurrency market, the block subsidy rewards for Bitcoin miners have become negligible."