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Viewpoint: Bitcoin is undergoing a "shakeout" rather than the beginning of a bear market, and the four-year cycle remains a key factor

ChainCatcher news indicates that the current price of Bitcoin has dropped 22% from the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended, and this drop may be a "shakeout"—a sharp decline triggered by long positions being liquidated, followed by a rapid rebound.Bitfinex analysts point out that "multiple key technical indicators have turned bearish, raising speculation about an early end to the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains a key factor; history shows that pullbacks during bull market cycles are normal, and this is more likely a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom for Bitcoin may align with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500), with $72,000 to $73,000 still being a critical support range, but global bond yields and stock market trends will dominate Bitcoin's next moves. The risks of a trade war have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment." Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen to a historical low of 8%, the halving event remains crucial for long-term price trends. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and since then, Bitcoin has accumulated over a 31% increase. Although the ETF purchases driven by institutional adoption over the past year have become a major force, the halving effect will continue to influence the market."
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