BitFi

Bitfinex: Macroeconomic conditions will significantly impact Bitcoin's trend in the coming weeks

ChainCatcher news, the Bitfinex Alpha report shows that Bitcoin fell by 17.39% in February, marking the worst February performance since 2014 and the second worst February in history. Since hitting bottom after the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin bull market corrections have typically ranged between 18-22%, but February saw a correction of 28.3% from January's historical high of $109,590, making it one of the most significant corrections since the end of the bear market.On March 2, U.S. President Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Crypto Reserve Program, triggering a strong market rebound, with Bitcoin rising 20% from recent lows and a single-day increase of over 12%. However, subsequent sell-offs pushed the Bitcoin price back down to around $92,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that macroeconomic conditions (including the performance of the S&P 500 index) will significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks before the details of the Crypto Reserve Program are announced.The report also points out that the U.S. economic situation is complex, with persistent inflation, declining consumer confidence, and slowing economic growth. January's personal consumption expenditure inflation data showed a year-over-year growth rate of 2.5%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Rising service costs and new import tariffs are expected to further affect the Federal Reserve's ability to adjust interest rates, reducing the likelihood of recent rate cuts.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin is impacted by tariff policies, but the continuous accumulation by institutional investors shows market resilience

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report shows that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural transformation. Although the BTC price fell below $100,000 due to Trump's tariff policy, the continuous accumulation by institutional investors indicates market resilience. MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 10,107 bitcoins for $1.1 billion, bringing its total holdings to 158,400 bitcoins, and submitted a financing application to the SEC in preparation for future purchases; the Japanese listed company Metaplanet completed a $745 million financing to expand its Bitcoin reserves to hedge against the risk of yen depreciation. In January 2025, BTC recorded a 10% increase, with prices consolidating within a 15% range for nearly 65 days.On a macro level, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has increased, with a 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 reaching 0.8, a new five-month high. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with inflation still above the 2% target, and core PCE year-on-year remaining at 2.8%. Meanwhile, Tether is integrating its $140 billion USDT into the Bitcoin Lightning Network, enhancing network payment efficiency through Taproot Assets technology, and driving Bitcoin's transformation from a store of value to a payment network.

Bitfinex: If mining power is long-term transferred to AI, the centralization risk of Bitcoin will increase

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released an analysis report stating that the symbiotic potential between Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence infrastructure cannot be ignored. AI operations require a significant amount of energy and specialized facilities, while Bitcoin miners already possess these facilities. During peaks in AI operations or surges in energy demand, miners can scale down Bitcoin mining and increase mining capacity when energy is more abundant. This dynamic can enhance the economic efficiency of mining operations while maintaining sufficient hash power for the Bitcoin network.Whether this shift is beneficial or detrimental to the Bitcoin network depends on the diversification of miners and the industry's ability to maintain network security amid changing dynamics. If executed strategically, the combination of AI and Bitcoin mining can foster innovation and efficiency without compromising the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.However, if a significant amount of hash power is permanently transferred, the Bitcoin network may face greater centralization risks. Choosing AI over other digital assets also aligns with the broader strategic goals of many mining companies. The growth trajectory of the AI industry is expected to achieve long-term scalability and align with emerging technological trends, from automation to advanced data analytics.
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