prices

According to the macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019 shows that oil price trends exhibit a "two-phase" pattern: the first phase is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing reflects uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, on the fifth day of the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9%, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks in advance.The second phase is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when the 25-day inventory buffer of Gulf countries is exhausted, leading to forced production cuts. The historical average increase during this phase is 44%, with extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report notes that the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from a normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, and Gulf countries have only 25 days of buffer left. When the tank utilization rate reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, and oil prices will enter an accelerated phase of the "scarcity digestion period." If oil prices remain between $85 and $95, a CPI increase of 30-40 basis points is manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-$130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices exceed $180, CPI will rise by over 300 basis points, possibly triggering stagflation.Currently, Bitcoin maintains a correlation of over 0.9 with tech stocks. If oil prices remain above $110, a CPI rise to 3% and real interest rates exceeding 2.5% will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks, at which point the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may break, triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, inventory utilization rates in Gulf countries, CPI data on March 11, Federal Reserve guidance on March 18, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate exceeds 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows.

According to Jinshi, driven by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand due to the escalation of the Iran war, the dollar has recorded its largest two-day gain in nearly a year. As traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7 basis points, reaching a three-week high. Oil prices surged above $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024, while European gas prices skyrocketed by 40%, hitting the highest level since 2023. Traders are cutting back on expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policy before the end of the year, with the money market currently pricing in a 37 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

According to Jinshi News, Chris Turner from ING Group pointed out in a report that the US dollar is currently the currency that benefits the most from the rise in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.He stated that expecting a de-escalation of the conflict seems premature, and America's energy independence allows it to be insulated from the impact of persistently high oil and gas prices. At the same time, the rise in energy prices raises doubts about whether the Federal Reserve can still cut interest rates twice as previously expected within the year. Turner predicts that the dollar index may rebound to 100 this month, having already risen to 99.221, reaching a six-week high.

According to Jinshi News, Saira Malik from Nuveen Investments stated in a research report that the broad impact of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran remains to be seen. He believes that global markets may experience more volatility, and its far-reaching effects will become clearer over time.Although the surge in oil prices may drive up inflation, Malik expects this will not affect the Federal Reserve's policy in the short term. He maintains his forecast of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will fluctuate around the 4% range.

According to Gate market data, due to the ongoing strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, and Israel's attacks on Hezbollah targets within Lebanon, U.S. stock index futures have fallen sharply, with the S&P 500 index futures down 78 points. Meanwhile, the global energy benchmark Brent crude oil futures have risen by more than 7%. Daniela Hathorn from Capital.com stated that the market is facing an indefinite conflict, making it difficult for financial markets to price potential outcomes.

Due to the Middle East war driving up oil prices and triggering inflation concerns, the currency markets reduced bets on interest rate cuts in the U.S., U.K., and Eurozone on Monday. According to swap trades linked to policy meeting dates, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in 2026 has dropped from nearly 50% last week to 20%. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to cut rates three times this year, lowering the probability of a rate cut in March from over 80% to 60%.They also halved the probability of the European Central Bank cutting rates this year, pricing in only a 5 basis point rate cut. The rise in two-year yields in the U.S., U.K., and Germany, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, has exceeded that of longer-term yields. This reflects a significant jump in inflation indicators driven by Brent crude oil prices posting their largest increase in four years.Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Newven Investment, stated, "The sustained rise in oil prices will have significant spillover effects on the global economy and inflation trajectory. A more persistent energy pulse could complicate the disinflation process and delay further rate cuts."

According to Gate's market data, the dollar has strengthened against all major currencies as rising oil prices have prompted swap traders to reduce bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The current market expects a rate cut of about 59 basis points, down from 61 basis points last Friday.Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group in Sydney, stated that this may be an early signal that the market believes sustained increases in oil prices will lead to higher inflation pressures in the U.S., thereby reducing the Fed's willingness to cut rates. Deteriorating risk sentiment has also contributed to the dollar's rise, with S&P 500 futures down 1.5%.

Javier Blas, a columnist for Bloomberg focusing on energy and commodities, wrote that the Iranian attacks have a severe impact on oil prices but are not a shock.Blas's article points out that the market is most concerned about whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of tanker routes. Neither of these has happened yet. There is still no indication of this. Despite fears that Iran might set fire to the Middle Eastern energy industry, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet weaponized oil. Israel and the United States have also not targeted Iran's oil infrastructure.Analysts say that oil prices are likely to soar, but even the most bullish traders are talking about a possible rise to $100 per barrel, which is far below the $139 per barrel peak reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. Viewed through that wide-angle lens, this time in the Middle East is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.Additionally, although the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has remained bullish, with traders rushing to buy oil in anticipation of rising prices. A year ago, the 12-day war between Israel and the United States caught many traders off guard, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude oil prices to spike. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to absorb this crisis.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain whale opened 40x leveraged long positions on BTC and 20x leveraged long positions on SOL, which have faced partial liquidation. The liquidation price for the Bitcoin long position is $66,204.07, and the liquidation price for the SOL long position is $81.9.

According to Gate market data, Microsoft’s stock fell 2.4% in pre-market trading, Alphabet's stock dropped 0.7%, and Amazon's stock declined 0.9% in pre-market trading.

The Gate Research Institute recently released the report "Cryptocurrency Market Review for January 2026," which points out that in January, the market capitalization distribution of stablecoins on public chains remains highly concentrated. Ethereum accounts for more than half of the share, continuing its position as a core clearing and DeFi liquidity hub; Tron firmly holds second place, playing a key role as a high-frequency settlement channel in cross-chain payments and token transfers.In terms of macro assets, gold and silver prices have risen to historical highs, driving significant expansion in the tokenized commodity sector. The total market capitalization of related tokens has surpassed $5 billion, with an increase of over 35% in the past 30 days, and monthly on-chain transfer volume exceeding $13 billion, with gold-related tokens being the main growth driver. Meanwhile, the trading volume in prediction markets reached a new high of $12 billion in January, with total on-chain transaction fees exceeding $11 million. With the support of incentive mechanisms and short-cycle high-frequency contracts, trading activity and protocol revenue have both increased.On the capital side, the Web3 industry completed a total of 53 financing rounds in January, with a cumulative scale of approximately $1.82 billion, primarily flowing into blockchain services and CeFi-related sectors.In terms of security, Web3 risk events exhibit a "few large amounts, dispersed small amounts" loss structure. Contract vulnerabilities remain the primary source of risk, accounting for 34.5%; among them, Step Finance suffered a supply chain attack, resulting in asset losses of approximately $40 million, making it the largest security incident of the month.

According to CoinDesk, although the price of Bitcoin has fallen nearly 17% this month, the stock prices of several Bitcoin mining companies have risen against the trend, such as TeraWulf, which has increased by 31% this month, Cipher Mining by 8%; Hut 8 by 6%; and Core Scientific remaining basically flat.Analysts believe that Bitcoin mining companies are currently one of the targets with a high short-selling ratio among hedge funds. If the fundamentals improve, it may trigger a short covering rally. These companies have secured long-term and attractive power contracts, giving them a structural advantage on the energy cost side. Their strategic value goes beyond just Bitcoin mining, and capital is flowing towards "structural winners," while traditional mining companies may face the risk of being marginalized.

UBS reiterates its positive stance on gold, expecting the international spot gold target price to reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks will remain high amid tensions between the U.S. and Iran, while the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is expected to continue, putting pressure on real interest rates.Analysts point out that global gold demand will exceed 5,000 tons by 2025. UBS expects that with stronger investment flows and continued purchases by central banks, gold prices will rise further. On the supply side, growth appears to be constrained.While high gold prices may incentivize exploration activities, consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimates that by 2028, about 80 mines will exhaust their current production plans, indicating limited supply elasticity in the short term.