ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, the price of Bitcoin will rise alongside the surge in oil and energy prices.

ChainCatcher message, Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and gold this month, as more signs indicate that the regulatory outlook for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. will improve after the upcoming presidential election. Bitcoin rose 4% in October, surpassing global stock indices and gold so far this month.Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, stated: "This rise is primarily driven by the U.S. presidential election, initially fueled by Trump's lead in prediction markets and polls, and later by the Harris campaign's somewhat supportive statements regarding the crypto market. I haven't seen the details of Harris's cryptocurrency policy yet, but it sounds less negative than the Biden administration's."

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated in its market analysis report that MicroStrategy's momentum continues. Over the past week, the stock has risen by 16%, reaching a market capitalization of $43 billion, a new all-time high. This upward trend may continue, with several key catalysts on the horizon. This could lead to a "tail wags the dog" situation, where MicroStrategy's stock performance may positively influence the price of Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that if Donald Trump wins the presidential election next month, the price of Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000. While analysts expect Bitcoin to perform well in the long term regardless of the outcome, they stated that if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may test the $40,000 range again.This year, Trump has repositioned himself as a candidate supportive of cryptocurrency—accepting cryptocurrency as campaign donations and outlining policies to turn the U.S. into a "powerhouse" for Bitcoin mining, appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, and establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. In contrast, Harris only recently mentioned cryptocurrency in any speeches or policy statements; last month she made broader comments stating that she would encourage cryptocurrency businesses while protecting consumers, and that the U.S. should "take the lead" in the blockchain space, with digital assets being part of her "opportunity economy" vision.While Bernstein analysts believe that, in the context of low interest rates, ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits, and unprecedented debt levels, Bitcoin will perform well in the long term regardless of the outcome, the short-term reaction to the election could be substantial.

ChainCatcher news, Felipe Villarroel, portfolio management partner at TwentyFour Asset Management, stated that in recent weeks, investor expectations have become more aligned with those of the Federal Reserve.He mentioned in a statement, "The U.S. Treasury market is currently pricing in two rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, which is consistent with the median of the dot plot." He indicated that the Federal Reserve's baseline scenario is an economic soft landing (a decrease in inflation without harming the economy and labor market) with growth close to the potential growth rate of 2%, which requires setting the neutral interest rate around 3%.

ChainCatcher news, according to the analysis of the account Bitcoindata21, Coinbase's download numbers often rank among the top 500 apps in the Apple App Store. After a decline this month, its popularity has risen again. Coinbase has now reached the 385th position.The chart shows that download numbers are closely related to Bitcoin price performance, with Coinbase's ranking entering the top 175 during the bull market. Currently, as Bitcoin prices rebound, user interest has seen a resurgence.Santiment analysis points out that although positive comments have reached their highest level of the year, new historical highs are still to be awaited.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital has released its latest market analysis report. The report indicates that Bitcoin is currently oscillating in the range of $62,000 to $64,000, while Ethereum's trading price is close to the low of $2,600. Micron Technology (MU) shares surged 16% due to an upward revision of its fourth-quarter revenue expectations, and the market anticipates that chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA) may follow suit, which could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break through $64,000.Today's key macro events include U.S. GDP data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The market will closely monitor Powell's speech for any changes in policy stance following last week's FOMC press conference. U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris has reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, promising to position the U.S. as a leading force in "AI, quantum computing, and blockchain."QCP Capital believes that as global central banks begin to ease monetary policy, the expected increase in liquidity may drive cryptocurrency prices higher. The company suggests that investors consider going long on long-term options structures with unlimited upside potential to capture potential parabolic price increases.

ChainCatcher news, according to DL News, a new study by cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock shows that 88% of tokens launched alongside airdrops this year have seen their prices decline, with most plummeting within 15 days. Price changes after airdrops mainly occur in the initial few days. Three months later, few tokens manage to achieve positive returns, with only a handful able to reverse this trend.It is commonly believed that the more tokens a project airdrops, the worse their performance will be in the public market. However, this general perception is not supported by data. Keyrock stated, "Contrary to popular belief, larger airdrops do not always lead to sell-offs. A token that allocated 70% to airdrops achieved positive growth, indicating that full diluted valuation (FDV) management is more important."Keyrock pointed out two reasons for the failure of high FDV token airdrops. First, projects with inflated FDV often struggle to maintain momentum as perceived upside becomes limited. Second, tokens with high FDV often lack the liquidity to support these valuations. Keyrock stated, "Without sufficient liquidity, prices become highly sensitive to sell-off pressure."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, as the fourth quarter of 2024 approaches, some analysts predict that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market will continue to rise, primarily driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors.Gabriel Selby, Chief Research Analyst at CF Benchmarks, stated in the report: "Against the backdrop of macro changes and institutional adoption, digital assets are expected to continue growing in the fourth quarter as sovereign balance sheets come under pressure, and investors will seek long-term hedging tools like Bitcoin."Selby noted that after the presidential election on November 5, there could be significant changes in the U.S. regulatory landscape, creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrency innovation. "We are seeing conditions that enhance investor confidence and drive capital formation."Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, is also bullish on Bitcoin's performance in the last quarter. He stated: "Bitcoin is expected to perform better in October than in September, with a target price range of $58,000 to $72,000."Lee pointed out several compelling signs in the derivatives market, including multiple instances of negative funding rates in Bitcoin futures in September, and the fear and greed index still hovering in the "extreme fear" zone. "Historically, these factors often herald the arrival of a significant rebound."

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's analysis points out that driven by the People's Bank of China's stimulus measures, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose 4.15% today, marking a key moment for global markets. The global easing policy will continue, providing strong support for asset prices in the short term.In terms of cryptocurrency, this widespread bullish momentum has led to a greater increase in the price of ETH relative to BTC, with ETH/BTC rising from 0.038 last Friday to 0.0415 today. The implied volatility of ETH is 9% higher than that of BTC, indicating an upward market sentiment and higher expected volatility.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, FalconX research director David Lawant stated that the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and broader risk asset indices has been rising and may remain high for some time. The current lower interest rate cycle combined with a soft landing is the baseline for most investors and will create a new macro environment for cryptocurrencies. Favorable election outcomes and a liquidity environment more conducive to risk assets may trigger the next cryptocurrency bull market.

ChainCatcher news, Binance CEO Richard Teng commented on the expectations of interest rate cuts, stating, "We expect that the expectations of interest rate cuts will have a significant impact on the prices of crypto assets. Lower interest rates enhance the liquidity of the financial system, thereby boosting the demand for high-yield, high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. For example, from February 2020 to February 2022, when interest rates were near zero, the price of Bitcoin increased by 375%.Lower interest rates may raise concerns about inflation, prompting some investors to turn to cryptocurrencies to protect their purchasing power; low rates may also weaken the dollar, leading more investors to view crypto assets as an alternative store of value. Bitcoin and other crypto assets have unique characteristics that may influence their prospects during periods of interest rate cuts. One key factor to consider is the recent Bitcoin halving, as historically, price increases have generally occurred 6-18 months after similar events. The launch of spot ETFs could also facilitate easier transitions between stocks and cryptocurrencies, allowing the liquidity growth brought by interest rate cuts to flow into the crypto market.Moreover, while September is typically a weak month for crypto assets, prices usually begin to rebound in October, and the expectations of interest rate cuts may provide additional momentum as prices recover. The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the crypto asset market remains uncertain, but several indicators suggest that the policy changes in September may be timely for cryptocurrency investors. Lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity present a hopeful outlook for crypto assets. Historical trends and unique cryptocurrency-specific variables further enhance optimism that these policy changes could foster growth."

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst PlanB posted on platform X, stating, "The market is still consolidating, with a trading range around 60k. I can re-enter the market. Moreover, Bitcoin is in a bull market, but the rise has not yet come. Miners are still struggling to cope with the consequences of the halving. We need the Bitcoin price to double to kickstart the bull market."Crypto analyst Willy Woo commented below his tweet, "According to the current BTC pricing, only the latest models of mining machines can be profitable after the halving. As the chart shows, now is generally a good time to buy BTC (and mine with the latest generation hardware)."

ChainCatcher news, according to data tracked by Hyblock Capital, market depth (the collection of buy and sell orders, whether close to or far from market prices) has dried up over the weekend. This pattern typically appears at market turning points, indicating that the trend of Bitcoin's decline from the high of over $65,000 at the end of August has ended.Liquidity, represented by market depth, measures the market's ability to absorb large trade orders without affecting prices. It often depends on several factors, including the time of day, current market events, and specific price levels.The characteristic of a market bottom is that traders find it difficult to take decisive action, leading to a reduction in buy and sell orders and a decrease in liquidity.Shubh Verma, co-founder and CEO of Hyblock Capital, stated in an interview with CoinDesk: "By analyzing the aggregated spot order book, particularly the order book depth of 0%-1% and 1%-5%, we found that low order book liquidity often coincides with market bottoms. These low order book levels may be early indicators of price reversals, typically preceding bullish trends."

ChainCatcher news, according to CCData statistics, September has historically been one of the worst-performing months for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.51%. Only 6 Septembers in history have recorded positive returns. In contrast, April and November have the highest average returns, at 35.6% and 39.2%, respectively. Although September typically performs poorly, 2023 defied the trend with a slight return of 4.00%.Despite the low return, the annualized volatility of Bitcoin in September is relatively low, averaging 79.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen pointed out that the rebound in cryptocurrency prices is supported by the strong expansion of stablecoins, with the minting volume of stablecoins reaching $1 billion on a 7-day average.In addition, LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger stated in an analysis report released this Monday: "Technically, the market is increasingly resembling a bullish consolidation before the next significant surge. This would mean that Bitcoin will set a new high, and ETH may also break its annual high and challenge the historical high set in 2021."

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant posted on social media, "The total market capitalization of stablecoins has reached a historic high of $165 billion. This increase typically signals a rise in the prices of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies."