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first_img ASUS and GIGABYTE have raised the prices of graphics cards in mainland China, with increases of up to 500 yuan

ASUS and Gigabyte, among other graphics card manufacturers, plan to raise product prices in the mainland Chinese market again in September, by up to 500 yuan (approximately 2,300 New Taiwan dollars). The price increase effect will also boost the performance of ASUS, Gigabyte, MSI, Leadtek, and Chengqi.According to reports from mainland Chinese media IT Home, ASUS will raise the net cost price of the NVIDIA RTX 5070 series by 150 to 300 yuan in September, while prices for other series models will remain unchanged. Gigabyte will increase the price of all models in the NVIDIA RTX 5060TI 16G series by 200 yuan in September, while other models will remain the same. AMD's RX 9070 XT series will increase by 200 yuan; the RX 9060 XT 16G/8G series will increase by 200 to 250 yuan; and the RX 7650 GRE series will increase by 400 yuan.The main reason for the price increase is the shortage of memory, and production capacity has also shifted towards manufacturing AI computing power GPUs. NVIDIA has again lowered the overall shipment volume of consumer GPUs by 15% to 20% for the third quarter, and the estimated supply for various brands in September is similar to that in August, with supply still tight. The high-end models such as the NVIDIA RTX 5080 and 5070 TI remain among the most out-of-stock models. This year, NVIDIA has raised graphics card prices multiple times, and September marks another increase.

Serenity: The storage prices and supply-demand structure remain tight, and a short-term increase does not indicate that the bottleneck has been broken

Serenity posted a reminder that the fundamentals of storage shortages have not changed and may even become more acute. The market will shift from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves remain unchanged; what changes are the valuations and narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting that the storage supply-demand gap may be worse than the market expects: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors claim the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, and prices may rise by about 50% by the end of the year; SpaceX has not accounted for the approximately $1.3 trillion capital expenditure from ultra-large cloud providers, and total spending may exceed expectations; SanDisk's expected gross margin of 80% is expected to be maintained until 2030; and order visibility for companies like Samsung has extended to 2031.Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some of its positions showing unrealized gains of over 270%, making them easier to hold. However, the company's operational fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not align. The same logic applies to other bottleneck areas such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates; after a rebound in stock prices, there is no need to assume that shortages have ended. Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight, and market sentiment and valuation narratives are rapidly rotating.

first_img The market expects TSMC's foundry prices to be raised by 10% to 15% across the board

According to a report by Juheng.com, after Samsung Electronics took the lead in raising prices for some advanced and mature processes, the market expects TSMC to follow suit, with prices for its various processes likely to increase by 10% to 15% across the board. According to reports from TrendForce and Nomura Securities, TSMC has completed a new round of price negotiations with customers in mid-year, raising prices for the tight supply of some 3-nanometer N3 processes by up to 15% for the second half of the year. The market further anticipates that by early 2027 at the latest, prices for TSMC's advanced processes such as N2, N3, and N5 may increase by another 5% to 10%.TSMC's N2 and N3 capacities have almost been fully booked by Apple and NVIDIA. The prices for mature processes such as N12, N16, and N28, which have not been adjusted for three consecutive years, may also see a simultaneous increase, with a maximum rise of about 10%. According to estimates from Citi Securities, TSMC's capital expenditure will reach $80 billion in 2027, further increasing to $90 billion in 2028, with this year's capital expenditure already raised to between $52 billion and $56 billion. TSMC announced in July that it would expand its investment in the United States to $265 billion. According to Reuters, Samsung raised prices for some new orders of advanced processes in July, with the 4-nanometer SF4 seeing increases of 10% to 15% for customers in China and the United States.

first_img Bitcoin's 23% rebound drives a surge in mining company stock prices, outperforming AI stocks

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's rebound in August has driven a surge in the stock prices of some previously underperforming mining companies, reversing the market preference that had shifted towards artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) mining firms. The latest report from BlocksBridge Consulting shows that Bitcoin's approximately 23% increase over the past week has outperformed most AI-related infrastructure stocks.The stock prices of three mining companies, Canaan, American Bitcoin, and Cango, rose between 41% and 67%, while CoreWeave increased by about 21%, Nebius by 17%, and IREN by 15%. Some mining companies with higher exposure to AI and HPC remained flat or declined. BlocksBridge pointed out that the three main catalysts for Bitcoin's rise include: the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to at least double the liquidity support for long-term Treasury repurchase agreements; a rise in regulatory optimism following a meeting between the White House and crypto executives, with Trump urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act; and a short squeeze triggered after Bitcoin's breakout, leading to over $1.6 billion in crypto positions being liquidated within 24 hours.Additionally, BlocksBridge's previous analysis found that publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies' investments in AI data centers are about 15 times their AI-related revenue. From 2026 to date, the AI and HPC revenue of nine listed mining companies has reached $341.2 million, while related capital expenditures have amounted to $5.11 billion.

first_img Analysis: CXMT's production capacity has peaked, and DRAM prices continue to rise sharply

Analysis indicates that China's major DRAM manufacturer CXMT's monthly wafer output has reached a peak of approximately 240,000 pieces by the end of 2025, and is expected to remain flat in 2026. Due to the tightening of U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, especially EUV lithography machines, its capacity for expansion is limited, and substantial expansion will not occur until at least 2027, depending on the progress of the domestic equipment supply chain. According to Goldman Sachs data, CXMT's coverage of domestic DRAM demand is only about 41% in 2026 and about 50% in 2028, reflecting a structural bottleneck for many years.TrendForce data shows that traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to surge by 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another increase of 58%-63% in the second quarter. Jefferies predicts that prices will continue to rise by 40%-50% and 30%-40% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The price increase for server DRAM is even steeper, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% to clients like Microsoft and Google in the first quarter. S&P Global expects Samsung's traditional DRAM revenue per bit to rise by 116% year-on-year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron's ASP will increase by 54% to $1.06; Bernstein predicts that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026.Multiple forecasts suggest that effective supply relief may not occur until the end of 2027 or even 2028.

first_img Goldman Sachs: Nvidia's impressive earnings report may struggle to boost stock prices

According to the Financial Associated Press, Nvidia will announce its Q2 2027 financial report after the US stock market closes on August 26. Goldman Sachs expects strong performance with potential upward revisions in guidance, but notes that the stock price has already surged since August, with an increase of over 12% in the past two weeks, suggesting that the good news may have already been priced in, making it difficult for excellent performance to boost the stock price. Goldman Sachs' EPS forecasts for Nvidia in Q2 and Q3 are 6% and 12% higher than Wall Street's consensus expectations, respectively, with a target price of $285, which is still slightly below the market average.Goldman Sachs believes there is room for revaluation in the valuation, provided that the profitability of large-scale cloud vendors improves to support capital expenditures, Nvidia maintains caution on its customer financing platform to alleviate concerns about supplier circular financing, and continues to advance large-scale buybacks and dividends. Investors will focus on details of the customer financing platform in the earnings call, progress on the Vera Rubin platform, gross margins and raw material costs, CPU demand driven by AI agents, and the competitive landscape in the industry.Goldman Sachs points out that while GPU demand is strong, there is still a risk of a pullback, and the difficulty of "exceeding expectations and raising guidance" increases each quarter, raising doubts about whether cloud vendors can continue to ramp up capital expenditures. Earlier this month, Nvidia, in collaboration with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and others, established a financing platform for AI computing infrastructure, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital; concerns about circular financing are rising in the market, and the company needs to release more substantial new information, or else the stock price is more likely to decline rather than surge after the earnings report.
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