ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's latest report, Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000, leading to over $430 million in long positions being liquidated. This drop occurred after the spot Bitcoin ETF ended five consecutive days of net inflows, recording $438 million in outflows on Monday, while MicroStrategy's stock price fell by 4.4%.Previously, MicroStrategy made a record purchase of $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin last week. With the U.S. holiday approaching and a lack of catalysts to drive prices up in the short term, Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 has temporarily stalled.Ethereum's implied volatility is significantly skewed towards put options, reflecting a market sentiment similar to that of Bitcoin. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ChainCatcher news, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday), some economic data and events in the U.S. will be released earlier.In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims and the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released earlier at 21:30 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday), and the monthly PCE inflation data will be released earlier at 23:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).In terms of events, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting will be released earlier at 03:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 43.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 56.2%.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that he expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to achieve a goal that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity.Goolsbee said, "Unless there is compelling evidence that the economy is overheating, I see no reason not to continue lowering the federal funds rate." "The pace of rate cuts depends on the outlook and conditions. But in my view, we are on a clear path that will lead to lower rates, closer to the neutral rate." He mentioned that his prediction for the neutral rate is close to the officials' median estimate, which is 2.9% as projected in September. Goolsbee noted that the overall situation in recent months has been that inflation has often been below expectations, but not significantly above the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising nearly 1%, reaching a historic high. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.35%, marking five consecutive trading days of gains, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.16%. Over the week, the Dow accumulated a 2% increase, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.7%. As the "Trump Cabinet 2.0" gradually takes shape, the market is generally optimistic about the implementation of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation policies.Cryptocurrencies showed an upward trend last week, with the market sentiment index remaining in the greed phase, indicating investors' optimistic expectations for future price movements. As BTC continues to hit new highs approaching $100,000, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally saw substantial gains following the market trend, while the popularity of meme projects declined last week.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% last week, surpassing the 108 mark and reaching a two-year high. The bleak economic outlook for the Eurozone has dampened oil demand expectations, but due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose about 6% last week, marking the best performance in two months. Recent trends in gold have been supported by strong risk aversion and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with gold prices rising for five consecutive days last week, accumulating a 5.7% increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly two years.After Trump's victory in the presidential election, the Fed's stance on rate cuts has become increasingly cautious. Last week, a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials cast a shadow over the highly anticipated prospect of a Fed rate cut in December. The minutes from the Fed's November meeting and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday local time, respectively, which may stir market waves. Currently, investors expect the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December to be slightly above 50%. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan recently released a report evaluating the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established by incoming President Trump, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, aimed at streamlining federal operations and cutting wasteful spending.The report stated: "In terms of government efficiency, Trump is expected to push an agenda that advocates for reducing red tape. This includes the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency," and added: "We believe that this department will find it difficult to achieve this."JPMorgan explained the reasons why DOGE may encounter obstacles: "Ultimately, Congress controls government spending, and DOGE is outside of Congress. The department can propose all the suggestions it wants, but in the end, it is the typical 60-vote majority in Congress that decides legislative changes."The report concluded: "One of the key questions for investors in 2025 is which parts of the Trump 2.0 agenda will be emphasized and which parts will gradually fade."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed sharply different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level, which is the interest rate that balances the Federal Reserve's various economic goals.Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are."In contrast, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Federal Reserve officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, in this week's speech, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed starkly different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level. The neutral interest rate refers to the rate level that allows the Fed's various economic goals to be balanced.Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are." Meanwhile, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Fed officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that once the Fed enters the "normalization" phase, questions regarding further rate cuts will become more important. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, SEI Investment Company's CIO Jim Smigiel stated that the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates, but the number of future rate cuts may be fewer than in the past.He said, "We believe that a rate cut is possible, but the facts indicate that we are closer to the end of the rate-cutting cycle than the beginning." While discussions about improving government efficiency and cutting costs are also on the agenda of incoming President Trump, the likelihood of rising inflation is much greater. "Essentially, the FOMC will be forced to cut rates again in December and then pause rate cuts in 2025 to avoid the appearance of a policy reversal shortly after a 50 basis point cut."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Barr plans to complete the entire term as Vice Chair of Supervision.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the scale and timing of interest rate cuts will depend on the upcoming data, economic outlook, and the balance of risks; the policy is not predetermined. The interest rate cuts so far are an important step in easing policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a recent survey by foreign media shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates next month. However, due to the policies proposed by incoming President Trump, which may lead to rising inflation, the expected rate cut in 2025 will be smaller than they anticipated a month ago.The policies planned by Trump, including raising tariffs and cutting taxes, have led to a nearly halved market expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate cut by the end of 2025, down to about 75 basis points. Market pricing indicates that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is now less than 60%.

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Out of 106 analysts, 94 believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% in December. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Bob Prince, Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, stated at the third annual Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit held in Hong Kong on Wednesday that the policies of U.S. President-elect Trump regarding tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and immigration may prevent the U.S. from achieving its 2% inflation target. If the U.S. inflation rate remains close to 3% in about a year and a half, Trump may be inclined to nominate a Federal Reserve chairperson who is willing to accommodate a higher inflation target, which would allow him to cut interest rates.He added, "People are looking forward to rate cuts. But if the inflation rate remains unchanged, then it may not be possible to cut rates. I think the situation 18 months from now will be very interesting, as the current Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term will end." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, on the 20th, Hong Yixin, President and CEO of State Street Global Advisors, attended the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit and stated that this year the global stock market has recorded growth, inflation is slowing down, and central banks around the world are cutting interest rates. Therefore, looking ahead to 2025, the global economy is expected to continue its soft landing, and there is optimism about global economic growth.In addition, she expects that the profits of American technology companies will continue to rise. Although U.S. stocks are currently recording growth, there is still room for further increases in the future, so she is very optimistic about the U.S. stock market; she is also optimistic about European and emerging market stocks, as a weaker dollar is a favorable factor for emerging markets. At the same time, she anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, but will lower its forecast for the number of rate cuts in 2025 to three times, with rates possibly dropping to 3.75% by the end of next year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged until December is 40.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.1%.The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 30.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 54.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 15.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "The decision to cut interest rates is an acknowledgment of the growing confidence that the inflation rate is likely to reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target—this confidence is partly based on signs that the labor market and product market have been tending toward balance in recent months," said Kansas City Fed President George in remarks prepared for a speech to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce.He stated that while the progress toward returning to the 2% target means that now is an appropriate time to cut rates, "how much further rates will decline or what they will ultimately settle at remains to be seen." On the current issue of federal government spending, George indicated that because the Federal Reserve will fulfill its responsibility to keep inflation at the established 2% target, large fiscal deficits will not trigger inflation.However, this may mean that "interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period," George said, which is why the Federal Reserve must maintain its independence when formulating monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, boosted by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, gold futures prices have risen. This precious metal has partially rebounded from a significant sell-off following the U.S. presidential election, increasing 3.9% from last Thursday's low.SP Angel analysts noted in a report that gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all saw gains during Monday's trading session, likely reflecting a weakening in dollar trading. Market focus is now shifting to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in December. Given that President-elect Trump's protectionist policies have raised new inflation concerns, the market expects a 35% chance that there will be no interest rate cut at this meeting. SP Angel stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is a negative factor for gold, as higher rates typically diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold. (Jin Shi)