YC

Trader Eugene: The recent structural decline of active developers is concerning, and the crypto market is陷入 a self-reinforcing cycle in the short term

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene posted, "The introduction of global trade tariffs marks a change in the world order that has not been seen in over 50 years. Free trade has always been a key factor driving productivity and economic growth, contributing to the largest long-term bull market in history. The shift from openness to a protectionist stance will have profound effects, which will take years to gradually manifest, unless Trump completely abandons his tariff plans. I think the likelihood of that is very low. This will pose significant long-term resistance to global risk assets.In terms of cryptocurrency, the recent structural decline in active developers may be the most concerning thing. In the last cycle, we could observe developer activity and feel reassured because we knew our industry was still benefiting from long-term tailwinds. Fast forward 2-3 years later, and we have not produced anything particularly interesting or important, and the outlook for the future is even worse than it was then.In the last cycle, we looked forward to the launch of ETFs and a better regulatory environment under government support for cryptocurrencies as a light at the end of the tunnel. Now that these have been realized, but (once again) have failed to meet expectations, I see no future that can free cryptocurrency from its inherent 'Ouroboros' (self-circling, self-consuming dilemma).In the coming weeks to months, I hope to reduce operations in the cryptocurrency space, whether bullish or bearish, as I believe this is the wisest choice. Being a believer waiting for a new bull market is no longer contrarian thinking. However, starting to explore new greenfields (undeveloped areas) is indeed contrarian.For me, the only bright spot is that the use cases and global acceptance of Bitcoin are stronger than ever, which may encourage believers to continue hoarding Bitcoin and achieve decent returns (I hope so). The idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin by 2035 is not a fantasy in my view."

CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and it usually takes about six months to reverse

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, for the following reasons:There is a concept in on-chain data called realized market cap. It works as follows: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it is considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it is considered a "sell." Using this idea, the average cost basis of each wallet can be estimated by multiplying it by the amount of BTC held, resulting in the total realized market cap, which is generally seen as the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activity, while the market cap is based on the latest trading prices on exchanges.When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can drive up the price, thereby increasing the market cap. Strategy has taken advantage of this by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, resulting in the book value of their held Bitcoin growing far beyond the actual capital invested. However, when selling pressure is high, even large purchases cannot change the price; for example, when the Bitcoin trading price approaches $100,000, the market trading volume is huge, but the price hardly changes.The realized market cap shows how much actual money has entered the market, while the market cap reflects how prices respond. If the realized market cap is growing but the market cap is stagnant or declining, it indicates that capital is flowing in, but prices are not rising—this is a typical bearish signal. On the other hand, if the realized market cap is flat while the market cap soars, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is pushing prices up—this is a bullish signal. What we are currently seeing is the former, where capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market.In short: when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull market. When large capital cannot push prices up, it is a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months—therefore, a short-term rebound seems unlikely.
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