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Analysts: The Federal Reserve may pause the rate cut process in early 2025, ignoring inflation data could face liquidation risks

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Bank Chief Economist Stephen Juneau released a latest report warning that investors ignoring inflation data may face liquidation risks in 2025. The latest data shows that the November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, up 0.1 percentage points from October; the November PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%.Federal funds futures indicate a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, but BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder, EY Chief Economist Greg Daco, and Nationwide Economist Oren Klachkin all expect that, influenced by potential new policies from Trump, the Federal Reserve may pause the rate-cutting process in early 2025.The market needs to be wary of three major risks: higher tariff policies, deficit financing tax cut plans, and tightened immigration policies, as these factors may keep the core PCE inflation rate elevated over the next two years. Daco particularly pointed out that although the possibility of a rate cut next week is close to a "coin toss probability," the subsequent pace of rate cuts will clearly slow down, and policymakers will remain highly vigilant regarding new government policies.
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