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Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event predicting the number of tweets by Elon Musk from October 8 to 10, 2026, on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "65-89" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 40.5% an hour ago to the current 16% (a fluctuation of 24.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Arthur Hayes stated that at the beginning of each super bull market, the market must overcome numerous concerns. In 2017, it was the block size debate; in 2020, it was the pandemic; in 2023, it was the FTX collapse and central bank interest rate hikes; in 2026, it will be the panic caused by AI encryption technology (FUD).The wave of money printing will eventually come, and asset prices will soar.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Elon Musk's number of tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026" is currently the most traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a total pool size reaching $4.7676 million. The option with the highest market consensus is "300-319," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 32.95%.

For the week ending September 26, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States was 1.716 million, higher than the expected 1.708 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.701 million to 1.699 million.

For the week ending October 3, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 197,000, lower than the expected 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 197,000 to 199,000.

According to TASS, Kirill Tsarev, the First Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of Sberbank, stated that the bank has noticed a significant interest from a large number of customers in cryptocurrencies, which have become an indispensable part of the global market.

The number of stablecoin holding addresses on the blockchain network Solana has exceeded 14.02 million, setting a new historical high, a significant increase from less than 4 million at the end of 2024. The supply of Solana stablecoins has surpassed 15 billion USD, and the cumulative trading volume of stablecoin cards has exceeded 1 billion USD.The Solana Foundation has launched Solana DvP, an open-source delivery versus payment framework designed to synchronize the settlement of tokenized assets and cash in a single atomic transaction. This system employs an isolated custody mechanism, aiming to complete settlements within seconds and reduce the risk of one party completing a transaction while the other fails. J.P. Morgan provided insights on institutional settlement needs during the development phase. The audited Solana DvP standard applies to tokenized stocks, funds, and other real-world assets.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event predicting the number of tweets from Elon Musk between October 5 and October 7, 2026, on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "40-64" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 22% an hour ago to the current 93.5% (a fluctuation of 71.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Defiant citing data from Beaconcha.in, the number of active Ethereum validators has decreased by 2.5% over the past 7 days, to approximately 863,000, while the total amount of staked ETH has slightly increased by 0.08%, reaching 43.74 million.The decline in the number of validators is mainly related to the validator merging mechanism after the Pectra upgrade. This upgrade raised the maximum effective balance of a single validator from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, allowing operators to merge multiple validators without needing to exit staking, thereby reducing network communication and consensus overhead. Currently, approximately 507,000 ETH are in the merging queue, with an expected waiting time of about 5 days and 11 hours.

JPMorgan stated that the likelihood of the United States imposing tariffs on silver and platinum group metals is "decreasing."

According to the official announcement, Upbit has launched the Numeraire (NMR) trading pairs with Korean Won and USDT.

UPBIT will launch Numeraire (NMR) trading on October 6 at 20:45, supporting KRW and USDT markets. Users should note that only NMR deposits and withdrawals on the Ethereum network are supported.

According to Cointelegraph, a report by Chainalysis indicates that from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2026, the number of independent wallets sending peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transactions in China increased 43 times.During the reporting period from July 2025 to June 2026, Chainalysis recorded 18.1 million transfers involving self-custodied stablecoin holdings in China, totaling $10.41 billion. The annual turnover rate of stablecoin holdings was 33.2 times, more than three times the global average of 9.3 times. Chainalysis believes this characteristic aligns with users using stablecoins as working capital.Chainalysis estimates that the size of China's crypto economy is at least $176 billion, with domestic P2P activities accounting for 59.1%, which is 3.5 times the share during the 2025 reporting period. In March 2026, the volume of stablecoin transfers within China increased by $4.9 billion, marking the largest monthly increase during the reporting period. This growth occurred amid China's long-standing restrictions on crypto trading, as regulators introduced new rules in February targeting unauthorized RMB-pegged stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.Chainalysis pointed out that China's P2P-dominated market contrasts with other markets in East Asia. South Korea, with $449.1 billion, has become the largest crypto economy in East Asia, with activity growing by 12.3% compared to the previous reporting period, and retail investors showing a preference for AI-related tokens. Institutional platforms in Hong Kong accounted for 16% of service inflows, nearly three times that of regional neighbors, and recorded nearly $24 billion in business-to-business inflows, issuing the first batch of stablecoin licenses in April.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "Elon Musk's number of tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the sub-market "65-89" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 65% an hour ago to the current 95.5% (a fluctuation of 30.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinDesk, data from the cryptocurrency recruitment platform CryptoJobsList shows that the number of job postings by cryptocurrency companies in September increased from 382 in July to 1,241, continuing to rise from 886 in August, and surpassing the most active month earlier this year, January, which had 573 postings. The number of companies posting jobs in September rose to 125, up from 107 in July, and briefly dropped to 77 in August.The platform believes that the recovery in hiring in September aligns with the seasonal pattern of business returning to normal after the summer off-season in the Northern Hemisphere, but the data indicates that seasonality is not the only reason: the number of job postings in August had already doubled compared to July, and there was no similar surge from August to September in 2025; the most active month that year, October, had only 373 postings, with data from July to September remaining basically flat.In contrast to the increase in job postings, the number of applications fell from 25,700 in July to 24,631 in August, and further declined to less than 20,000 in September. CryptoJobsList interprets this divergence as a tightening competition for professional talent. Over the past three months, finance has been the largest recruitment category, followed by engineering and trading, with stablecoins, AI, security, and compliance also making the top ten; the most requested blockchain skills are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Solana's official X post stated that the number of tokenized stock holders on Solana has reached a record high of 1.2 million, with 775,000 people joining just in September.

For the week ending September 19, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits in the United States was 1.701 million, lower than the expected 1.725 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.719 million to 1.712 million.

For the week ending September 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 197,000, lower than the expected 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 197,000 to 198,000.

The decentralized trading protocol Osmosis in the Cosmos ecosystem announced that the maintenance mode of the past few months is coming to an end, and active development will resume. The team stated that the first step is to streamline the core product, including simplifying the tokenomics, focusing on the treasury, and enabling the network to act faster when needed.Osmosis proposed three adjustments to OSMO, all of which will be submitted for on-chain governance. First, further reduce inflation, decrease the circulation of new OSMO, and stop injecting newly minted OSMO into the community pool, making the network rely more on actual revenue. Second, destroy most of the OSMO held by the community pool, as well as the OSMO previously allocated from the community pool. Third, the treasury will only provide liquidity for the core liquidity pool, with a complete list to be published before the changes take effect.The team also plans to reduce the active validator set to 30, stating that a smaller set helps with security incident response and chain upgrade coordination, and aligns with a low-inflation model. Osmosis stated that streamlining the protocol is to prepare for future expansion, as it remains the central venue for IBC asset trading, and seeks community input on the direction of the next steps.