Long-term holders

CryptoQuant: BTC on-chain activity hits a one-year low, surge in demand from long-term holders may signal a price increase

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by CoinDesk, CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows that the Bitcoin network activity index has dropped to 3760, down 15% from the historical high of November 2024, marking a new low for the past year. This index comprehensively measures multiple indicators such as the number of active addresses, transaction volume, block size, and transaction fees.Specific data shows that daily transaction volume has decreased from a peak of 734,000 transactions to 346,000 transactions, a decline of 53%; the number of unconfirmed transactions in the Bitcoin transaction pool (mempool) has plummeted from 287,000 in December 2024 to 3,000, a drop of nearly 99%, reaching the lowest level since March 2022.Analysis indicates that the decline in activity is primarily due to the reduced usage of the new protocol Runes Protocol for issuing fungible tokens on the Bitcoin network. This protocol writes token minting and transfer data on the Bitcoin network through the OP RETURN opcode, with its daily average usage dropping from 802,000 in April 2024 to the current 10,000.However, CryptoQuant believes that the decline in network activity may not directly affect Bitcoin's price trend. Data shows that the demand for long-term accumulation addresses (addresses that never participate in spending transactions) has significantly increased recently, a phenomenon that historically often signals a rise in Bitcoin prices, reflecting the market's recognition of Bitcoin as an investment asset and a store of value.

Glassnode: Bitcoin wealth redistribution, long-term holders taking profits, new investors absorbing supply

ChainCatcher message: According to a recent report from Glassnode, the ongoing bull market for Bitcoin marks a significant shift of wealth from long-term holders to new investors, and the redistribution of wealth is a sign of the maturity of the Bitcoin market. Long-term holders have been realizing record profits, peaking at $2.1 billion per day, while new investors have sufficient demand to absorb this supply.According to the report, this trend indicates that the depth and diversity of the Bitcoin ecosystem are continuously expanding, thanks to increased institutional participation and heightened retail interest.In 2024, long-term Bitcoin holders (especially those holding for 6 to 12 months) have become the main contributors to selling pressure. These tokens were primarily acquired earlier this year, accounting for 38.5% of the profits realized since November, totaling $27.3 billion.Meanwhile, Bitcoin held for over three years is relatively stagnant, indicating that higher price levels may be needed to stimulate its sale.The report notes that this is a natural cycle in the Bitcoin market. As prices rise, long-term holders distribute their wealth, allowing new investors to absorb the supply.Despite significant profit-taking by long-term holders, new investors have shown resilience, providing the liquidity needed to maintain Bitcoin's upward momentum. Metrics related to short-term holders (STH) highlight their ability to withstand market adjustments without triggering a chain sell-off.Additionally, compared to previous bull markets, the volatility of the current Bitcoin cycle has also decreased. The maximum drop in August was 32%, significantly lower than the adjustment levels of previous cycles. Analysts attribute this stability to increased institutional participation, while the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the widespread acceptance of digital assets have driven this trend. Besides the buying pressure from new retail investors, this institutional demand has also greatly supported the market, ensuring liquidity during sell-offs and supporting price resilience.
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovators