CryptoQuant: BTC on-chain activity hits a one-year low, surge in demand from long-term holders may signal a price increase

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by CoinDesk, CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows that the Bitcoin network activity index has dropped to 3760, down 15% from the historical high of November 2024, marking a new low for the past year. This index comprehensively measures multiple indicators such as the number of active addresses, transaction volume, block size, and transaction fees.

Specific data shows that daily transaction volume has decreased from a peak of 734,000 transactions to 346,000 transactions, a decline of 53%; the number of unconfirmed transactions in the Bitcoin transaction pool (mempool) has plummeted from 287,000 in December 2024 to 3,000, a drop of nearly 99%, reaching the lowest level since March 2022.

Analysis indicates that the decline in activity is primarily due to the reduced usage of the new protocol Runes Protocol for issuing fungible tokens on the Bitcoin network. This protocol writes token minting and transfer data on the Bitcoin network through the OP RETURN opcode, with its daily average usage dropping from 802,000 in April 2024 to the current 10,000.

However, CryptoQuant believes that the decline in network activity may not directly affect Bitcoin's price trend. Data shows that the demand for long-term accumulation addresses (addresses that never participate in spending transactions) has significantly increased recently, a phenomenon that historically often signals a rise in Bitcoin prices, reflecting the market's recognition of Bitcoin as an investment asset and a store of value.