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first_img Jensen Huang: The likelihood of a memory supply surplus before 2029 is low

According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated during a media interview at the GTC conference in Berlin on Thursday that the likelihood of a memory supply surplus by 2029 is low. He mentioned that one great aspect of memory is that there is always more that can be used, and he noted that HBM will continue to be applied in the coming years.Jensen Huang also stated that Nvidia is the first company in the world to introduce LPDDR memory, used in mobile phones, into data centers, which doubles its energy efficiency compared to any current global solution, thus it will continue to use this type of memory extensively. He mentioned last Thursday that customer demand for AI chip orders continues to exceed the company's supply capacity, with new orders pouring in almost weekly, if not daily.In the past week, storage chip stocks faced sell-offs due to market concerns over supply surplus and weak demand. A well-known media outlet in South Korea published a column last week, citing two experts who predicted that by 2029, there will be a significant increase in semiconductor supply, and the storage chip market may turn into a red ocean. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 2.6%, at 26008.86 points; SanDisk fell 8.51%, SK Hynix fell 8.07%, Seagate Technology fell 7.86%, Western Digital fell 6.43%, and Micron Technology fell 6.23%.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Before the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is likely to continue its fluctuations, with the lower edge of 80,000 USD possibly being tested first

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The direction of Bitcoin awaits the determination of CPI, with the lower edge of $81,000 likely to be tested first

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

first_img Broadcom CEO: Many AI investors are like casino gamblers

According to Bloomberg, Hock Tan, CEO of chip company Broadcom, stated at an event in Singapore on Monday that the artificial intelligence craze has attracted a group of investors with strategies similar to gamblers, some of whom have little understanding of what they are betting on. He mentioned that many investors "don't even know what they are investing in," setting extremely high expectations, resulting in a situation that is "almost like being in a casino," and specifically pointed to the investment frenzy driven by a lack of understanding of cutting-edge large language models.As the head of a company that designs key components for global data centers, Tan also questioned whether companies are wasting money on AI projects and the long-term economics of AI labs that are continuously losing money. He noted that ChatGPT developer OpenAI's annualized revenue reached $50 billion in September, indicating a viable model, but it does not guarantee long-term profitability; it is still losing money due to high training costs, and currently only suggests that cutting-edge generative models have significant potential revenue growth.Tan also warned that a lack of capital could become the next constraint on industry growth. The Australia-based data center company Firmus Grid, supported by Nvidia, withdrew its planned $5.5 billion IPO last week. Before Tan's remarks, DBS Group CEO Tan Su Shan stated that after a large amount of investment, the market is re-pricing the risks associated with AI financing.

Binance targets a financial super app: integrating cryptocurrency trading, stock investment, payment, and banking-like services, with a goal of increasing the user base to 3 billion

Shunyet Jan, the head of trading and trading operations at Binance, stated that the future competition among financial platforms will no longer be limited to cryptocurrency asset trading, but will integrate services such as investment, payment, lending, and asset management, creating a comprehensive financial ecosystem that covers both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. Jan has worked for about 30 years at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase. He believes that traditional finance has advantages in regulation, risk management, and functional segregation, while the cryptocurrency industry is more competitive in 24-hour trading, fast settlement, and openness, and that the two will accelerate their integration in the future.Binance hopes to allow users to utilize their financial value without having to sell underlying assets through features such as unified accounts, cross-asset margin, tokenized assets, and stablecoin payments, and to explore using AI to simplify asset selection and risk management. Jan revealed that Binance currently has over 300 million users, most of whom come from emerging markets; among users of its direct stock and tokenized stock products, about 90% come from emerging markets. He stated that Binance's long-term goal is to expand its user base from 300 million to 3 billion and to become a financial infrastructure that more people can use.
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