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Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

According to K33 Research, the U.S. government transferred approximately 17,733 BTC to Coinbase Prime this week, including 12,267 BTC related to the Bitfinex hacking incident. After the transfer, the government's marked holdings decreased from 324,527 BTC to 306,795 BTC. If we include unmarked suspected government wallets, the total amount of BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime is about 21,500 BTC.Analysis suggests that this transfer is likely a custody operation rather than a sale—Coinbase Prime has been the custodian for the U.S. Marshals Service since 2024. The cryptocurrencies related to Bitfinex are still in the claims process, and the Department of Justice has requested that victims be compensated in BTC; the ban on the strategic Bitcoin reserve only covers cryptocurrencies that have been fully confiscated. Additionally, about 1,200 BTC from FTX and HashFlare were transferred simultaneously, which may be paid to victims in cash through compensation channels.It is noteworthy that approximately 15,000 BTC related to Bitfinex claims were transferred within two days, which may indicate that the distribution plan or related rulings are progressing.

On Tuesday, the global semiconductor sector faced a massive sell-off, with the decline intensifying. The trigger was Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stating that AI investments have a "casino-like" nature. He mentioned in Singapore on Monday that many investors do not even know what they are investing in and that investors have set extremely high expectations, only to find that it is just like being in a casino.The world's two largest memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, saw their stock prices plunge by 8.8% and 9.2% at one point during the morning session, dragging down South Korea's main stock index by 7%. The two companies account for about half of the weight in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, and their stock prices have cumulatively dropped by about 15% over the past five days. The Taiwan Weighted Stock Index, dominated by chip stocks, fell by 2.5%, with TSMC down 2%; Micron Technology dropped nearly 4% overnight, and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell by 2.7%.

According to Bloomberg, Hock Tan, CEO of chip company Broadcom, stated at an event in Singapore on Monday that the artificial intelligence craze has attracted a group of investors with strategies similar to gamblers, some of whom have little understanding of what they are betting on. He mentioned that many investors "don't even know what they are investing in," setting extremely high expectations, resulting in a situation that is "almost like being in a casino," and specifically pointed to the investment frenzy driven by a lack of understanding of cutting-edge large language models.As the head of a company that designs key components for global data centers, Tan also questioned whether companies are wasting money on AI projects and the long-term economics of AI labs that are continuously losing money. He noted that ChatGPT developer OpenAI's annualized revenue reached $50 billion in September, indicating a viable model, but it does not guarantee long-term profitability; it is still losing money due to high training costs, and currently only suggests that cutting-edge generative models have significant potential revenue growth.Tan also warned that a lack of capital could become the next constraint on industry growth. The Australia-based data center company Firmus Grid, supported by Nvidia, withdrew its planned $5.5 billion IPO last week. Before Tan's remarks, DBS Group CEO Tan Su Shan stated that after a large amount of investment, the market is re-pricing the risks associated with AI financing.

Shunyet Jan, the head of trading and trading operations at Binance, stated that the future competition among financial platforms will no longer be limited to cryptocurrency asset trading, but will integrate services such as investment, payment, lending, and asset management, creating a comprehensive financial ecosystem that covers both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market. Jan has worked for about 30 years at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase. He believes that traditional finance has advantages in regulation, risk management, and functional segregation, while the cryptocurrency industry is more competitive in 24-hour trading, fast settlement, and openness, and that the two will accelerate their integration in the future.Binance hopes to allow users to utilize their financial value without having to sell underlying assets through features such as unified accounts, cross-asset margin, tokenized assets, and stablecoin payments, and to explore using AI to simplify asset selection and risk management. Jan revealed that Binance currently has over 300 million users, most of whom come from emerging markets; among users of its direct stock and tokenized stock products, about 90% come from emerging markets. He stated that Binance's long-term goal is to expand its user base from 300 million to 3 billion and to become a financial infrastructure that more people can use.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event on Polymarket for "Dota 2: Team Synapse vs LEGION - PARI Universe Playoff Qualifiers," the "Any Player Ultra Kill" sub-market's "Yes" option win rate has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 40.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

JPMorgan stated that the likelihood of the United States imposing tariffs on silver and platinum group metals is "decreasing."

According to Arkham monitoring, the whale 0x355 invested nearly 4.9 million USD in BNB, ETH, LINK, PENDLE, MORPHO, and ENA tokens on Binance four months ago.Currently, the value of this portfolio has increased by nearly 800,000 USD compared to the initial investment, mainly benefiting from the recent price increases of ETH and BNB. The other altcoins held by this whale have seen relatively small price changes due to the later buying time.

Zach Pandl, the Director of Research at Grayscale, stated that the AI crypto sector rose by 54% in September, significantly outperforming the overall crypto market, which increased by 24%. Despite this recent surge, the sector's market capitalization is still only about $15 billion, making it the smallest category among the six crypto sectors defined by Grayscale.Among the representative tokens in the sector, NEAR rose by 183% in September, Venice (VVV) increased by 70%, World (WLD) went up by 47%, and Bittensor (TAO) climbed by 37%. These projects involve agent commerce, privacy AI applications, human verification, and an open AI network encompassing reasoning, agents, data, and computation.Grayscale believes that public blockchains can provide an open infrastructure for agent payments, identity, privacy computing, and verifiable records, complementing the current AI development ecosystem that is concentrated among a few companies. The AI crypto sector may see one or more major winners in the next five years, and recent performance indicates that investors are beginning to price in the role of blockchain as infrastructure in the emerging agent economy.

According to Ark Invest Tracker, Ark Invest states that AI hacking attacks are affecting everything. The risks go far beyond Bitcoin, as AI makes software vulnerabilities easier to discover and exploit.Bitcoin and hardware wallets may be the first to be impacted, but social media, tax, and banking websites may also face the same threats. Trusting a big brand still means trusting that the company will not make mistakes as AI becomes increasingly powerful. ARK expects that large custodial institutions will also become targets, with AI potentially discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities at an unprecedented speed.

Chi Lo, a strategist at Societe Generale, stated that although the market expects two more rate hikes, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September will mark the beginning of a new tightening cycle similar to that of 2022 to 2023. Instead, this may signal the start of preventive rate hikes aimed at bringing inflation back to target levels by reversing last year's three rate cuts.He noted that further rate hikes will not alleviate external shocks such as war and energy price inflation, but they will ease financial market concerns about the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credibility. The Federal Reserve cannot continue to ignore recurring shocks or those that fail to dissipate as expected. By slowing down activity in other areas of the economy to curb inflationary pressures, further rate hikes may also carry the risk of pushing the economy into stagflation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that a recent paper explored the possibility of implementing privacy transactions on Bitcoin, characterized by the ability to achieve this directly on Bitcoin L1 without the need for a soft fork, making privacy transactions a native feature.Darkfost mentioned that he is not a developer and lacks the relevant technical background, but this idea is quite appealing. He believes it could be an important direction for Bitcoin's evolution according to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision, while potentially diminishing the appeal of privacy projects like Zcash and Monero.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to enter a prolonged rate hike cycle. The institution believes that tariff and energy price pressures may ease, there are no signs of an overheating economy, and inflation expectations remain anchored. The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one more rate hike this year, while the money market pricing shows that the remaining two meetings will cumulatively raise rates by 37 basis points.

Glassnode stated that over time, it seems increasingly unlikely that a decline of the same depth as in past cycles will occur again in the later stages of this market. The "four-year cycle" pattern that the market previously relied on has not been reflected in this bear market.Data shows that the drawdowns in the past three cycles exceeded twice that of this cycle, and there are still several weeks until the cycle low point; in contrast, this time BTC has only fallen about 30% from its historical high, and the price is currently rising.

The social platform X, owned by Elon Musk, announced that it has opened the feature for U.S. users to initiate trades directly through market tags. Users can click on tags like $BTC and $TSLA to view real-time market charts and related posts, and click the "Trade" button to be redirected to partner platforms to complete their orders.Actual buying and selling are still completed by partner platforms; X itself does not act as a broker. Partner platforms include Interactive Brokers, Moomoo, Gemini, Kraken, and Coinbase. Market tags have been available on X for many years, and earlier this year, X added real-time prices and chart features to them.Mridul Singhai, the head of product engineering at X, stated, "Market tags have brought the distance between stock codes and the market itself closer on the timeline." X has approximately 132 million daily active users globally (mobile) and over 245 million (across all devices). This feature is seen as part of Musk's plan to transform X into a broader financial hub.

Renowned trader Killa updated his views on the recent rapid surge of Bitcoin, stating that the next target for Bitcoin could reach the $88,000 range; however, if it quickly falls below $80,000, it may test the low of $70,000. Based on volume analysis, this scenario is currently unlikely.Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

The asset management company Grayscale's crypto research team stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on Wednesday is unlikely to impact Bitcoin prices. Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl wrote in a report on Thursday: "We believe yesterday's action is a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical change. We doubt that the one or two rate hikes expected in 2026 will lead to significant changes in capital allocation."Pandl added that when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to curb inflation, it "may have put pressure on Bitcoin prices," as this "significantly affected the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets." However, he believes this situation is more akin to 1997, when the Federal Reserve made a one-time rate hike while the Nasdaq index continued to rise.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, causing Bitcoin prices to fluctuate sharply before stabilizing, with a slight increase of about 1% within 24 hours. Bitcoin prices recently approached $76,581, rising 18% over the past 30 days. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the central bank is focused on reducing inflation. U.S. President Trump expressed on his Truth Social platform that U.S. interest rates should be 1% or lower.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, renowned financial advisor and founder of Edelman Financial Engines, Ric Edelman, stated on Bitcoin Magazine TV that buying Bitcoin now is like buying Amazon in 1999, and he predicts that the price of this leading cryptocurrency will reach at least $500,000 before 2030.Edelman noted that in 1999, people were still debating whether to invest in Amazon, but now there is no debate, and everyone owns it. He believes Bitcoin will follow the same trajectory in the future. He also mentioned that if everyone in the world allocated 1% of their assets to Bitcoin, the corresponding price would be $500,000, and he claims his prediction is actually conservative, as the final price could exceed $500,000 and the timeline could be earlier than 2030.Edelman is a long-time Bitcoin advocate, and he revealed that when he introduced Bitcoin to his peers in the financial services industry in 2013, he was often booed off stage. Today, most people in traditional finance at least acknowledge that the asset "has established a foothold." The article also mentioned that Bitcoin's recent price is about $76,522, up 1% in the past 24 hours, achieving its best performance in years in August, but still far below the historical high of $126,080 set in October.

According to CoinDesk, documents from the asset seizure order released by the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) show that the military branch of Hamas, the Al-Qassam Brigades, suggested in a letter to potential donors not to use Binance for transferring funds, but instead recommended platforms such as Bybit, OKX, Kast, and Redotpay. The letter advised using Tether's USDT stablecoin and the TRC-20 network, which is used to create and manage fungible tokens on the Tron blockchain.The Al-Qassam Brigades stated in the letter: "It is best not to use the 'Binance' platform for transferring support, and do not input any data indicating our official name, to avoid your wallet being blocked, and for your safety (inputting any fictitious data as the recipient); you can transfer through applications like Trust Wallet, RedotPay, OKX, Kast, BYBIT, etc." The organization claimed that Binance "can only be used to purchase currency, and then another application is needed to complete the transfer process."Binance's Chief Compliance Officer Noah Perlman responded that the terrorist organization's suggestion for people to avoid Binance indicates that its control measures are working. OKX stated that the wallet address mentioned in the February 10, 2025 communication is unrelated to them and has been identified by their internal controls as being associated with illegal activities, and related transfers will be flagged and blocked. Kast stated that it has a dedicated financial crime compliance department. The U.S. Treasury noted in its 2026 Terrorism Financing Risk Assessment that organizations such as Hamas and ISIS continue to use digital assets for donations and transfers.