election

According to documents submitted by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on October 15, the political action committee Fairshake, primarily funded by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, has invested $46.6 million through its affiliated organization Defend American Jobs in the Ohio Senate election for media advertising opposing former Congressman Sherrod Brown's return to the Senate and supporting Republican incumbent Jon Husted. This expenditure is over 50% more than Fairshake's initial plan of $30 million announced in September.In an interview aired on Pod Save America on October 16, Brown responded that he has spent his entire career battling Wall Street, big pharmaceutical companies, and oil giants, achieving success in many cases, while Husted is a spokesperson for these forces, which is why they have invested tens of millions of dollars. In addition to Fairshake, the super PAC Digital Freedom Fund, established by Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, reported approximately $3 million in advertising expenditures this week to oppose Brown and support Husted, bringing the total media spending in the Ohio campaign to over $5.9 million. With less than three weeks until the U.S. elections, early voting in Ohio has been underway for 10 days.Fairshake's spending this round has exceeded $41 million for 2024, when the PAC supported Republican Bernie Moreno and opposed the incumbent Brown. Brown, who previously served as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is one of the lawmakers in Congress openly questioning the laws and policies supported by the cryptocurrency industry. Defend American Jobs also reported spending over $6.7 million in the Nebraska Senate election opposing independent candidate Dan Osborn, whose opponent, Republican Pete Ricketts, voted in favor of the Digital Asset Market Structure Act and legislation related to stablecoins. Fairshake stated in January of this year that it held $193 million in cash before the election.

According to Bloomberg, the New Taipei District Court in Taiwan has authorized Taiwan's communication regulatory agency and internet registration agency to block domestic access to Coinbase and the prediction market platform Kalshi, due to allegations of providing election betting services.This blockage occurs a few weeks before the local elections in Taiwan, which will test the public support for President Lai Ching-te's government. Some Coinbase users in Taiwan have reported that they have been unable to access the platform normally since Wednesday.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

Crypto trader Killa posted that the most ideal trend for Bitcoin (BTC) currently is to continue rising before the U.S. midterm elections, building a bullish narrative and breaking through previous highs, followed by a pullback after the elections similar to historical cycles. However, this pullback may not form a new cycle low but rather establish higher lows.Killa stated that if BTC experiences a decline before the midterm elections, he believes the market is more likely to rebound to around $95,000 after the elections. Previously, nearly $2 billion in long positions had been liquidated, and there are about 3 weeks left until the U.S. midterm elections. The market may currently be experiencing a "maximum pain" scenario: after some market narratives have been broken, BTC rebounds before the elections, then reverses again putting pressure on traders in the opposite direction, ultimately leading the market to re-engage in risk deleveraging.Killa pointed out that in the past 4 U.S. midterm elections, there were declines in 3 of them 1-2 months after the elections, with historical samples showing a probability of about 75%. However, he mentioned that he still holds a 10x long position in BTC, as well as long positions established earlier at $62,600 and $76,400, and has not reduced his positions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that U.S. President Trump is not expected to engage in any military conflict before the midterm elections. The diesel trade with Russia is beneficial for Americans, and we will utilize all legal authorities to conduct diesel transactions with Russia.

Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple and crypto billionaire, is increasing his investment in the U.S. political arena. Disclosure data shows that during this midterm election cycle, Larsen has directly donated at least $22.5 million to federal candidates and super political action committees (super PACs), and plans to further increase his contributions.Currently, Larsen has become one of the important donors in U.S. federal politics, with areas of focus including artificial intelligence, clean energy, cryptocurrency, and wealth taxes. He has previously been an active political donor in the U.S. technology and cryptocurrency sectors.

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is establishing a presidential candidate outreach program, forming an internal team to collaborate with bipartisan presidential candidates on AI issues ahead of the 2028 U.S. election, assisting leadership in developing political strategies and operating political funding projects. The company is hiring a political program manager responsible for establishing and operating related programs for the 2028 election cycle, identifying potential candidates from both parties, providing AI policy education to candidates and their advisors on equal terms, preparing executives for dialogues, and planning party platforms, conventions, and transitions in advance. The position requires over 12 years of experience in campaigns, party committees, or political organizations, along with a record of credible bipartisan collaboration, with a salary ranging from $295,000 to $345,000.Fortune reports that the program is taking shape ahead of the November midterm elections and the company's potential initial public offering, which could be valued at up to $2 trillion. Bruce F. Freed, chairman of the Center for Political Accountability, stated that it is not uncommon for businesses to maintain relationships with presidential campaign teams, but he has not seen such a formal presidential election outreach arrangement. California Democratic Senator Alex Padilla noted that this hiring indicates that cutting-edge model companies are also establishing political operations beyond their products, emphasizing that education and influence are not the same, and urged Anthropic to disclose more details. Katie Harbath, founder and CEO of Anchor Change, believes the unusual aspect is that this role is also responsible for political action committee funding. Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

On October 8, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic updated its usage policy, adding prohibitions against election interference, weapon software, and surveillance. TechCrunch reported that the most notable change is the explicit prohibition against users subjecting the model to prolonged verbal abuse.Since the update in August, Claude has been trained to end conversations during ongoing harmful or abusive user interactions, and the new policy explicitly prohibits users from continuing such conversations. The policy states that this update applies only to extreme cases where users repeatedly treat the model cruelly without identifiable purpose, and does not apply to common user dissatisfaction, rebuttals, dark creative themes, or model testing and research.The usage policy also prohibits widespread deceptive activities, such as operating fake accounts or fabricating news organizations with Claude, and in the "Do Not Undermine Democratic Processes" section, it prohibits deceiving voters or disrupting elections. Reports indicate that this change occurred after Anthropic sought collaboration with well-known religious scholars, as the company attempted to persuade them that Claude might be conscious or have a soul in certain cases.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Next French Presidential Election" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative funding pool size reaching 1.461 billion dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Marine Le Pen," with a corresponding winning probability of approximately 43.25%.

According to CNBC, U.S. Democratic Congressman Don Davis proposed the "No Betting on Your Own Race Act," which aims to prohibit federal office candidates from trading prediction market contracts related to their own election results.Under the bill, violators will be fined at least $10,000 or three times the net profits from the related trades, whichever is higher. Before this proposal was introduced, Davis's Republican opponent in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, Laurie Buckhout, was fined nearly $2,600 for trading Kalshi contracts related to her candidacy and was suspended from trading on Kalshi for three years.

According to Cointelegraph, the crypto political action committee (PAC) Fairshake, supported by institutions such as Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and A16z, announced that it will support 32 incumbent members of Congress in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, including 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats.Fairshake plans to initially invest $6 million, providing $1 million in campaign support expenditures for 3 Republican and 3 Democratic candidates. Spokesperson Geoff Vetter stated, "We support pro-crypto candidates from both parties who advocate for American innovation." All 32 candidates voted in favor of advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) in 2025, but the bill failed to pass a key Senate vote, and its future remains uncertain.Fairshake expects to invest over $100 million this year to support House and Senate candidates through advertising, with at least $30 million allocated for the Ohio Senate race, backing Republican candidate Jon Husted against Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown.Vetter previously stated that as of August, Fairshake held $122 million in cash, aiming to help establish the largest pro-crypto coalition of lawmakers in U.S. history.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 178 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Democratic Party Victory," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 66.5%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" in the event "Brazil Presidential Election" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping sharply from 35.5% an hour ago to the current 15% (a fluctuation of 20.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The White House has established a special task force on artificial intelligence, led by National Intelligence Director Clayton, with plans to draft an AI risk assessment report within 120 days, clarifying the federal government's regulatory responsibilities regarding related technologies.Meanwhile, Trump is making every effort to rally support for the 2026 midterm elections, emphasizing at a rally in Ohio that the Republican Party must utilize all voting methods to secure victory, and mentioning that investments from companies like Stratus, Electra.aero, and Bayer are a result of his tariff policies.Additionally, Trump urged Senator Tom Cotton to stop personal obstruction of the Sunshine Protection Act, calling for the Senate to vote immediately to end the biannual clock adjustments and directly lock in daylight saving time. Related legislative and industry regulatory dynamics are unfolding simultaneously.

Famous trader Killa stated that he does not believe Bitcoin will hit new lows again and is currently maintaining a long position. However, after the U.S. midterm elections, the market may still experience some de-risking behavior, so it is not the right time to establish hedge short positions in advance.Historically, Bitcoin's performance has been weak after every U.S. midterm election cycle. However, if Bitcoin continues to rise before the elections, traders can wait until the midterm elections are closer to decide whether to take action based on the price trends at that time.He believes that a more reasonable strategy right now is to continue holding long positions and observe market reactions before and after the midterm elections, and then consider whether to establish hedge short positions, rather than shorting in advance solely based on historical cycles.

According to Bitcoin.com, the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, and the results may influence the direction of the country's cryptocurrency policies, which have the highest global adoption rate. Current President Lula will face off against former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro.If current President Lula is re-elected, it is expected that he will strengthen regulatory and compliance requirements, as the central bank has intensified oversight of exchanges and may push for taxation on stablecoin transactions (which had been postponed due to the election). If former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro wins, his stance on cryptocurrency is unclear, with no record indicating that he has ever mentioned cryptocurrencies. However, he has previously defended individuals associated with the "Bitcoin Pharaoh" pyramid scheme.

According to a recent interview with Time magazine, U.S. President Trump stated that if a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached with Iran, the U.S. may intensify bombings against Iran after the midterm elections.Trump also acknowledged that the stockpile of certain types of ammunition has decreased and stated that arrangements have been made with defense contractors to replenish ammunition and expand production capacity.

The crypto media The Block reported that there are 36 days until the U.S. midterm elections. The cumulative trading volume on the U.S. presidential election market on the prediction market platform Polymarket US has surpassed $545 million, making election-related markets one of the largest by trading volume on the platform.Traders currently assign a 91% probability to the Democratic Party winning the U.S. House of Representatives, up from 73% in May. The aforementioned trading volume and probability are both derived from the U.S. election-related markets on Polymarket US.