election

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $65,800 in a single bet on the "2026 House of Representatives election winner" event, targeting the "Republican" party. Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 94%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $290,608.89 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 94%.

Cybersecurity company XBOW published a statement disclosing a critical remote code execution vulnerability that can be exploited without authentication in a public web application of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC). This application is used for resource and logistics calculations, not for voting machines or voter registration systems.The vulnerability could allow attackers to execute code with root privileges in the backend container by crafting specific web requests, and access local protected resources and external networks. XBOW stated that it reported the issue according to the vulnerability disclosure policy published by the EAC, and after verification by the EAC team, the vulnerability was fixed before the U.S. federal midterm elections.

According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, the commercial collaborations between prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and media groups such as CNN, CBS News, CNBC, Dow Jones, and Fox are attracting attention. Bloomberg estimates, based on Dune data, that the cumulative trading volume of midterm election-related prediction markets on the two platforms is approximately $1.5 billion.The report states that CNBC's collaboration with Kalshi involves customer acquisition and minority equity investment, CBS News lists Kalshi as a sponsor of the prediction market, and the Wall Street Journal under Dow Jones showcases Polymarket data. CNN indicated that it would not reference prediction odds during live broadcasts on election night, while Fox News explicitly excluded political reporting from its collaboration with Kalshi. The financial terms of the related agreements are mostly undisclosed, and some media commentators are concerned that commercial interests may affect the independence of news reporting.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale sold $69,568.36 in a single transaction regarding the "2026 House of Representatives election winner" event, targeting the "Republican" party. Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 93%.

According to Bloomberg, the prediction market platform Polymarket is investigating a series of timely and profitable trades that emerged during this week's Israeli elections. According to Bloomberg's analysis, shortly before the voting ended on Tuesday, hundreds of new accounts concentrated their predictions, believing that Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party would perform better than their competitors.After some exit polls indicated that Netanyahu's camp won more seats than earlier reports suggested, these trades quickly turned profitable, with some accounts cashing out over $100,000. This is the latest case in the prediction market that has raised concerns about insider trading, as Polymarket has previously faced extensive scrutiny from regulators and public opinion for its accurate predictions related to sports, the U.S. elections, and geopolitical events.

The cybersecurity company XBOW disclosed that it has found a critical remote code execution vulnerability in a publicly accessible web application of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) that can be exploited without authentication.This application is used for resource and logistics calculation, not for voting machines or voter registration systems.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the ETF engine has hardly operated this year, with net inflows close to zero from the beginning of the year to now, yet Bitcoin has only dropped 7%. In the context of weak ETF demand while prices remain strong, the likelihood of OG whales or miners selling off in large quantities seems low; those who wanted to sell may have already done so.Ki Young Ju expects that once the uncertainty of the U.S. midterm elections dissipates and ETF capital inflows resume, bullish momentum will return.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that political factors did not influence the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. He emphasized that during discussions with colleagues, he did not hear any discussions about politics or elections, with the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

B.AI announced a significant upgrade to the model ranking list, adding four major evaluation dimensions beyond real usage popularity: the popular model tracking weekly token usage ratio, reflecting community selection trends; the call ranking supports real-time statistics of token and API call popularity over multiple time periods; the price ranking provides comparisons of input, output, and weighted prices, facilitating precise cost control; the intelligent ranking combines the Artificial Analysis intelligent index with a cutting-edge scatter plot of cost-effectiveness, helping to quickly identify high ROI models.The new ranking list can meet the needs for exploring cutting-edge capabilities, controlling call costs, and optimizing engineering selection.

According to CoinDesk, Brazilian companies turned to stablecoins during the elections last Sunday (October 25) to avoid the risk of local currency depreciation. The cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin stated that corporate accounts contributed 78% of the trading volume that day. On election day, the trading volume of USDT surged nearly 800% compared to the same day the previous week, more than three times the average of the previous four Sundays; Bitcoin trading volume increased by 865% compared to the previous Sunday.Data from Biscoint shows that the trading volume of USDT against the Brazilian real increased by 150% compared to the previous Sunday, while USDC increased by 318%. Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, stated that in the face of increasing exchange rate pressure, stablecoins like USDT and USDC provide a simple way to dollarize some assets. Concerns for businesses became reality on Monday: Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa index plummeted by 14%, marking the worst performance since March 2020; the dollar rose over 8% against the real, the largest single-day increase since 1999. On Monday, the combined trading volume of USDT and USDC reached 1.84 billion reais (approximately 350 million USD), up 65% from the previous week.

The cryptocurrency industry has spent approximately $176 million in this round of the U.S. midterm election cycle, covering over 100 elections, aiming to establish a bipartisan network of congressional allies to continue advancing legislative demands after Trump's departure. As of October 20, the super political action committee Fairshake and its affiliated organizations have spent about $150.8 million, with other cryptocurrency organizations spending around $25 million, major funders including Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z.Fairshake claims that among the 58 candidates it supported in primaries or special elections this year, 53 won. The organization supported bipartisan candidates in the House elections; after Senate Democrats blocked the CLARITY Act from reaching a final vote, it decided to support only Republican candidates in the Senate elections.The industry's spending in the Ohio Senate election has exceeded $68 million, focusing on long-time critic of the cryptocurrency industry Sherrod Brown, with related advertisements mostly avoiding mentioning cryptocurrencies and instead focusing on issues like taxes. Pushing for the passage of the CLARITY Act is a core goal of the industry, but the bill has stalled in this Congress. JPMorgan analysts indicate that without the bill, rules set by regulators during Trump's term may be overturned by subsequent administrations.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market Polymarket for the event "Israeli Elections: Likud Party Seat Count," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "20-24" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 32.5% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Israeli Legislative Election Winner" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Likud" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 31.5% an hour ago to the current 80.5% (a fluctuation of 49%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

An email from a Federal Election Commission (FEC) official shows that hackers are attempting to infiltrate U.S. election websites.

According to official news, the WCTC × Gate event market "Macro Prophet" activity has started and will last until November 25 at 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total reward value of 70,000 USDT. Eligible users who complete the WCTC S9 main event and register for this activity will be able to participate in the distribution of a reward pool valued at 20,000 USDT, provided that the daily effective trading volume in designated sectors related to the U.S. midterm elections and macro data reaches 200 USDT for at least 3 cumulative days.A separate cumulative trading volume leaderboard has a reward pool valued at 50,000 USDT, where users meeting the corresponding conditions can receive event market experience vouchers worth up to 8,250 USDT in total. The Gate event market has also launched a macro market special page, which visually displays the event probabilities, trading volumes, and market expectations for topics such as Federal Reserve interest rates, inflation, and employment, providing users with a reference for observing macro trends.Meanwhile, as of October 27, the total prize pool for the 11th phase of the Gate event market points activity has reached 70,049 USD, with the points prize pool being 11,074 USD and the lucky prize pool being 58,974 USD. The top position on the points leaderboard is expected to receive 4,152.75 USD. In conjunction with the ongoing League of Legends World Championship, Gate's "Summit Prediction Competition" is simultaneously offering a total reward pool valued at 150,000 USDT, covering initial predictions, phased trading tasks, canyon power rankings, and championship predictions, combining event result judgments with multi-stage participation tasks.

According to NPR, the prediction market platform Polymarket has launched an investigation into dozens of bets related to the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, focusing on potential insider trading and market manipulation. Sources say that at least two cases have been submitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Global Intelligence and Investigations Director, stated that the company has formed a 16-person team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system that generates hundreds of risk alerts daily. The monitoring scope includes U.S. compliant platforms that require identity verification, as well as international platforms that allow anonymous cryptocurrency trading.The system integrates analysis of social media, data from the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), cryptocurrency trading records, information from banking partners, and statistical models to identify abnormal accounts and trading patterns.

In the cryptocurrency industry, Coinbase ranks 5th among donation organizations with approximately 57.8 million USD, and 12th on the overall list; Ripple donated about 49.6 million USD, ranking 7th among donation organizations and 17th on the overall list; Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss donated a total of about 55.9 million USD, ranking 13th on the overall list; Foris Dax ranks 24th on the overall list with 39 million USD.