ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily report stating that Bitcoin rose by 2.20% last night, briefly rebounding to the $68,000 mark driven by strong spot demand, and then stabilizing in the $67,000 range. During the U.S. trading session, there was a significant amount of buying in long-term options expiring on March 28, with 600 contracts at a strike price of $120,000.This indicates that optimistic long-term buyers are returning in this rebound. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw an increase of $456 million, continuing four days of net inflows. These strong and growing capital inflows may be a leading indicator for BTC to challenge its historical high of $73,790 again.Although the U.S. election is the next key catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, there remains uncertainty in the market regarding Bitcoin's trajectory post-election. The trading price of options expiring close to the election is at a premium of 10% compared to other expiring options. As everyone focuses on the election, any changes in polling or candidate campaign narratives will be amplified in the spot prices.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the betting amount on the U.S. presidential election results on Polymarket has exceeded $2 billion. As of October 17, Republican candidate Trump has a betting amount of nearly $608 million on Polymarket, with a winning probability of 62.3%; Democratic candidate Harris has a betting amount of $405 million, with a winning probability of 37.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to IBTimes, based on data from Polymarket, Trump secured Nevada later on Wednesday (51% to 49%), and as of early Thursday, he still leads Harris in all the swing states tracked by the decentralized market prediction platform.It is noteworthy that Nevada was once a Republican-leaning state but has shifted to support the Democratic Party in recent years. Current trends indicate that the state may swing back to the Republican Party. Additionally, Nevada is considered one of the most "unpredictable" swing states in this year's election.Last year, the state showed great interest in cryptocurrency. The independent voters and multilingual environment in Nevada add uncertainty to the election, potentially becoming one of the key factors in determining the election outcome.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, based on data from the CFTC website, the prediction market Kalshi has launched more than a dozen event contracts related to U.S. political outcomes. As of October 16, Kalshi's flagship market "Who will win the presidential election?" has reached a total betting amount of $14 million since its launch on October 7.Kalshi's scale still lags far behind the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which has nearly $2 billion in betting amounts related to the U.S. presidential election.

ChainCatcher news, dYdX has launched a prediction contract market regarding the U.S. elections on the platform.Users can bet "yes" or "no" in the TRUMPWIN-USD market, with the final settlement price for each option being either $0 or $1, and the buy-in price at the time of betting being the cost price. It is worth mentioning that users can go long or short with up to 20x leverage (correct predictions can yield 20 times the profit, but conversely, a 5% adverse movement could lead to liquidation), which offers greater capital flexibility compared to traditional prediction markets.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that as the U.S. election approaches, various statistical channels show Trump leading in the competition, but there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.Datalab options data shows that the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC during election week is 57%, while the at-the-money IV for the week before the election is only 47%, indicating a 10% IV differential for the election.The current term structure also reflects an implied market view: the market does not expect significant volatility before the election concludes. Market trading volume supports this, as even with a good upward trend this week, large players are reluctant to bet on further increases.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick released a report stating that Bitcoin is showing upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. presidential election.Kendrick pointed out that multiple factors are driving this potential price increase, including a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, a revival of interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and an increased probability of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election.According to the Polymarket prediction platform, Trump's chances have risen to 56.3%. If Trump wins, the probability of the Republican Party simultaneously controlling the Senate and the House of Representatives is 70%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that after a 5% increase on Monday, Bitcoin rose approximately 14% in October, reaching over $65,000. This was driven by the correlation with the rising odds of Donald Trump's election, with MicroStrategy being a leading indicator of a potential bullish breakout.Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia analyzed: "We believe that the recent strength of Bitcoin is due to the correlation of Bitcoin with the rising odds of Trump's election. Although both sides express support for digital assets, the crypto market's bids are stronger due to Trump's increased odds in the election prediction market."

ChainCatcher news indicates that the betting amount on the U.S. election on the prediction market Polymarket is nearly $1.9 billion. Data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is currently reported at 55.8%, while Harris's probability of winning the election is currently reported at 43.7%.

ChainCatcher message, Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and gold this month, as more signs indicate that the regulatory outlook for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. will improve after the upcoming presidential election. Bitcoin rose 4% in October, surpassing global stock indices and gold so far this month.Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, stated: "This rise is primarily driven by the U.S. presidential election, initially fueled by Trump's lead in prediction markets and polls, and later by the Harris campaign's somewhat supportive statements regarding the crypto market. I haven't seen the details of Harris's cryptocurrency policy yet, but it sounds less negative than the Biden administration's."

ChainCatcher news, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media, "In an ideal world, I would like to see: a slow rise for the rest of October, Trump taking office in the White House, and then Bitcoin soaring to $100,000."

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the price of Bitcoin has risen from $62,000 to $65,000. Historical data shows that in the three weeks leading up to the U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin began to rise significantly.From October this year to now, Bitcoin has only increased by 1.2%, far below the average increase of 21% in previous years. Analysts believe that the current price trend is similar to historical patterns, which may indicate a potential rise before the elections. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor market movements.

ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport's latest weekly report, macroeconomic and market sentiment fluctuations have led to a global capital return to traditional financial markets, intensifying downward pressure on crypto assets. The U.S. stock market's linkage to non-farm payroll data has driven BTC upward in the short term, but as a risk asset, BTC has retraced alongside U.S. stocks. Small and mid-cap tokens have outperformed BTC, indicating that the crypto market remains highly speculative during the capital return period. BTC is oscillating around $60,000, with significant selling pressure, and has not yet formed a stable upward trend. ETH demand is weak; despite support from decentralized applications, its price performance lags behind BTC.Rising global economic uncertainty has driven an increase in volatility in the options market, with institutions using options to hedge market risks. Ahead of the U.S. elections in November, volatility expectations in the options market have peaked, and institutions are positioning themselves in advance to avoid sharp fluctuations. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has invigorated the crypto options market, with institutions inclined to profit from volatility trading. Crypto arbitrage opportunities have decreased, with capital shifting to traditional financial markets, leading to tight liquidity, making volatility trading an important strategy.

ChainCatcher message, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han stated, "Despite the lackluster price movement of Bitcoin this week, market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by the stable perpetual contract funding rates and open interest over the past week." Coinbase analysts pointed out that the macro factors influencing cryptocurrency performance are shifting from monetary policy to the results of the U.S. elections. Despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain broadly stable.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that as implied volatility remains low, Bitcoin traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for a potential bull market that may arise from Trump's victory. Bitcoin options will expire on November 8, 2024, but the market has not shown extreme positioning, indicating that traders are cautious about the election results. However, the strike prices of $65,000 and $70,000 suggest that many traders are anticipating a market rebound.The trading volume in the Bitcoin options market this year has ranged between $42 billion and $71 billion, gradually replacing the underperforming crypto stocks since the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, becoming a more favored leveraged tool among traders. Additionally, although MicroStrategy's current stock price is higher than the value of its held Bitcoin, holding MicroStrategy shares has become an alternative option for gaining direct exposure to Bitcoin.At the beginning of this year, the macroeconomic situation improved, and Bitcoin prices rebounded at one point, but as both market structure and liquidity driving factors weakened, a pullback occurred.Trump's victory could bring positive news for Bitcoin, but if the Federal Reserve adopts a tightening monetary stance to counteract the excessive economic stimulus from Trump's policies, the rise will face resistance. During this pre-election period, traders looking to profit in the short term may consider using call option arbitrage strategies to manage risk and capture upside gains.

ChainCatcher news, the probability of predicting Trump winning the U.S. presidential election on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to a two-month high of 55.5%, while the probability of Vice President Harris winning has dropped to 43.9%, further widening the gap between the two.In addition, the betting amount on the November election on Polymarket has exceeded $1.6 billion.

ChainCatcher news, according to data from Greeks.live, 18,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.91, and the maximum pain point at $62,000, with a notional value of $1.1 billion. 212,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.4, and the maximum pain point at $2,450, with a notional value of $510 million.Cryptocurrency remains weak, with fierce competition around the key level of $60,000, and ETH is also near the long-term support line of $2,300. A market reversal could happen at any moment. The market performance in the first two weeks of this fourth quarter has been poor, and the options market is also relatively sluggish, with the current open interest in options having fallen to a new low since 2023.However, a sluggish market also breeds new trading opportunities. The at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC on November 8 is only 50%, making it very suitable for building some medium to long-term bullish positions at low levels. This week, large bullish trades are gradually becoming active, and there is a high possibility of market movement around the U.S. elections.