election

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.

According to The Washington Post, based on data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the top 50 donors before the 2026 midterm election cycle have collectively contributed approximately $2.39 billion, with about $1.54 billion going to the Republican camp, about $590 million to the Democratic camp, and approximately $259 million to special interest groups.The cryptocurrency industry holds several positions among the major donors. Coinbase ranks 11th with approximately $57.7 million, while Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss have donated a total of about $55.3 million, placing them 12th; Ripple contributed about $49.6 million, and Foris Dax about $38.6 million. Among individual donors, Elon Musk leads with approximately $369 million, with his funds primarily directed towards super PACs and related organizations supporting Republican candidates.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $86,680.99 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections," betting on "Democratic Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 67%.

U.S. President Trump stated that there will be no bombing of Iran before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the U.S. is evacuating some non-emergency personnel from Saudi Arabia, reducing troop strength at some bases in the Middle East, and increasing aircraft carrier and amphibious forces. The Israeli military reportedly deployed dozens of fighter jets near the Iranian border this week before turning back, and the target list for strikes is also being updated.The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency government employees and their families only within Saudi Arabia, citing attacks on Saudi civilian targets related to Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Additionally, reports indicate that U.S. military forces have quietly reduced troop levels in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait in recent days. The Wall Street Journal states that the U.S. is dispatching another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with a third carrier strike group coming from the Pacific, and is sending an amphibious assault ship carrying Marines. If the new forces arrive and existing vessels are not rotated out, the total number of U.S. naval vessels in the region is expected to exceed 24, currently around 20.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly continuing to advocate for a large-scale strike against Iran, and U.S. officials even suspect that Israel is deliberately provoking Iran to fire. Israeli Channel 12 cited U.S. sources stating that earlier this week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq, approaching the Iranian border, with a flight path highly similar to that of an attack on Iran, turning back before entering Iranian airspace, which Israel claims was a drill and a deterrent. Pakistan, Qatar, and others are intensifying mediation, but the U.S. demands discussions on the nuclear program, while Iran hopes to first discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with no breakthroughs in negotiations yet.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $50,000 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 8.82%.

According to Jinshi reports, from early September to mid-October, the super political action committee affiliated with President Trump invested $277 million to support Republican candidates in the midterm elections, while the committee also raised an additional $25 million during the same period.According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, donors include casino mogul Stephen Wynn, Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, and billionaire Diane Hendricks, among others, who made large donations. Since its establishment two days after Trump won his second term, MAGA Inc. has raised a total of $449 million. Reports indicate that this fundraising scale is unprecedented for a president starting a second term.This funding further strengthened the Republican camp's finances. Currently, the Republican Party and its three affiliated super political action committees have raised a total of $2.1 billion, far exceeding the $1.3 billion raised by the Democratic camp.

According to The Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos joint polling, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33%, with a disapproval rating of 66%, among which 52% of respondents expressed strong disapproval of his performance. This approval rating is an 8 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year and is lower than at any time during his first term.With two weeks to go until the U.S. midterm election voting day, the Republican Party is facing a severe political situation. Polls show that as inflation pressures mount and voter dissatisfaction rises, the Democratic Party's support in the struggle for congressional control is increasing; for the first time in over a decade, the Democratic Party has gained higher voter trust than the Republican Party on economic governance issues.Overall results indicate that American voters have lost confidence in the president, are deeply concerned about Trump's decision to wage war on Iran, and are experiencing the economic impacts of war, particularly the impact of rising gasoline prices on household finances.

According to Cointelegraph, a recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that a majority of American respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. The survey indicates that 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents oppose using prediction markets to bet on election outcomes. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5, covering 4,506 adults nationwide.Aside from elections, even regarding betting on professional sports events, 43% of respondents expressed opposition, while only 29% indicated support. The prediction market industry is currently dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on U.S. elections, government policy trends, and sports events, and has sparked multiple lawsuits regarding regulatory authority.The Trump administration is pushing for federal regulation of the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while several states have expressed opposition to this. Previously, on October 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 states and the District of Columbia submitted an amicus brief, indicating that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market issues has created a "national turf war" that cannot be resolved without a Supreme Court ruling.

Renowned trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends before and after the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarizes the timing relationship between previous midterm elections and Bitcoin's bottoming out (2014: bottomed out about 70 days after the midterm elections. 2018: bottomed out about 40-44 days later. 2022: bottomed out almost during the midterm elections), suggesting that Bitcoin may form a weekly level bottom before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.He also presented two main scenario hypotheses: Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low point before (or around) the midterm elections (possibly sweeping the current low or maintaining above 80k), then starts to rebound, first testing the 80k area, and may eventually surge to 95k. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to the common expectation of "risk-off after the elections." Classic risk-off scenario: first rises sharply (possibly sweeping the high point or even reaching 94-95k), then experiences a historically common sell-off/risk-off decline after the midterm elections (similar in 3 out of the last 4 occurrences).Killa advises investors to closely observe the price structure leading up to the midterm elections and react accordingly. If an early bottom is reached, they may hold bullish positions after the elections; if a high is reached and then starts to weaken, consider risk-off. Overall, he emphasizes that the pattern is accelerating in change and cannot simply replicate the historical experience of "must drop after the elections." Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned bullish during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to documents submitted by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on October 15, the political action committee Fairshake, primarily funded by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, has invested $46.6 million through its affiliated organization Defend American Jobs in the Ohio Senate election for media advertising opposing former Congressman Sherrod Brown's return to the Senate and supporting Republican incumbent Jon Husted. This expenditure is over 50% more than Fairshake's initial plan of $30 million announced in September.In an interview aired on Pod Save America on October 16, Brown responded that he has spent his entire career battling Wall Street, big pharmaceutical companies, and oil giants, achieving success in many cases, while Husted is a spokesperson for these forces, which is why they have invested tens of millions of dollars. In addition to Fairshake, the super PAC Digital Freedom Fund, established by Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, reported approximately $3 million in advertising expenditures this week to oppose Brown and support Husted, bringing the total media spending in the Ohio campaign to over $5.9 million. With less than three weeks until the U.S. elections, early voting in Ohio has been underway for 10 days.Fairshake's spending this round has exceeded $41 million for 2024, when the PAC supported Republican Bernie Moreno and opposed the incumbent Brown. Brown, who previously served as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is one of the lawmakers in Congress openly questioning the laws and policies supported by the cryptocurrency industry. Defend American Jobs also reported spending over $6.7 million in the Nebraska Senate election opposing independent candidate Dan Osborn, whose opponent, Republican Pete Ricketts, voted in favor of the Digital Asset Market Structure Act and legislation related to stablecoins. Fairshake stated in January of this year that it held $193 million in cash before the election.

According to Bloomberg, the New Taipei District Court in Taiwan has authorized Taiwan's communication regulatory agency and internet registration agency to block domestic access to Coinbase and the prediction market platform Kalshi, due to allegations of providing election betting services.This blockage occurs a few weeks before the local elections in Taiwan, which will test the public support for President Lai Ching-te's government. Some Coinbase users in Taiwan have reported that they have been unable to access the platform normally since Wednesday.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

Crypto trader Killa posted that the most ideal trend for Bitcoin (BTC) currently is to continue rising before the U.S. midterm elections, building a bullish narrative and breaking through previous highs, followed by a pullback after the elections similar to historical cycles. However, this pullback may not form a new cycle low but rather establish higher lows.Killa stated that if BTC experiences a decline before the midterm elections, he believes the market is more likely to rebound to around $95,000 after the elections. Previously, nearly $2 billion in long positions had been liquidated, and there are about 3 weeks left until the U.S. midterm elections. The market may currently be experiencing a "maximum pain" scenario: after some market narratives have been broken, BTC rebounds before the elections, then reverses again putting pressure on traders in the opposite direction, ultimately leading the market to re-engage in risk deleveraging.Killa pointed out that in the past 4 U.S. midterm elections, there were declines in 3 of them 1-2 months after the elections, with historical samples showing a probability of about 75%. However, he mentioned that he still holds a 10x long position in BTC, as well as long positions established earlier at $62,600 and $76,400, and has not reduced his positions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that U.S. President Trump is not expected to engage in any military conflict before the midterm elections. The diesel trade with Russia is beneficial for Americans, and we will utilize all legal authorities to conduct diesel transactions with Russia.

Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple and crypto billionaire, is increasing his investment in the U.S. political arena. Disclosure data shows that during this midterm election cycle, Larsen has directly donated at least $22.5 million to federal candidates and super political action committees (super PACs), and plans to further increase his contributions.Currently, Larsen has become one of the important donors in U.S. federal politics, with areas of focus including artificial intelligence, clean energy, cryptocurrency, and wealth taxes. He has previously been an active political donor in the U.S. technology and cryptocurrency sectors.

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is establishing a presidential candidate outreach program, forming an internal team to collaborate with bipartisan presidential candidates on AI issues ahead of the 2028 U.S. election, assisting leadership in developing political strategies and operating political funding projects. The company is hiring a political program manager responsible for establishing and operating related programs for the 2028 election cycle, identifying potential candidates from both parties, providing AI policy education to candidates and their advisors on equal terms, preparing executives for dialogues, and planning party platforms, conventions, and transitions in advance. The position requires over 12 years of experience in campaigns, party committees, or political organizations, along with a record of credible bipartisan collaboration, with a salary ranging from $295,000 to $345,000.Fortune reports that the program is taking shape ahead of the November midterm elections and the company's potential initial public offering, which could be valued at up to $2 trillion. Bruce F. Freed, chairman of the Center for Political Accountability, stated that it is not uncommon for businesses to maintain relationships with presidential campaign teams, but he has not seen such a formal presidential election outreach arrangement. California Democratic Senator Alex Padilla noted that this hiring indicates that cutting-edge model companies are also establishing political operations beyond their products, emphasizing that education and influence are not the same, and urged Anthropic to disclose more details. Katie Harbath, founder and CEO of Anchor Change, believes the unusual aspect is that this role is also responsible for political action committee funding. Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

On October 8, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic updated its usage policy, adding prohibitions against election interference, weapon software, and surveillance. TechCrunch reported that the most notable change is the explicit prohibition against users subjecting the model to prolonged verbal abuse.Since the update in August, Claude has been trained to end conversations during ongoing harmful or abusive user interactions, and the new policy explicitly prohibits users from continuing such conversations. The policy states that this update applies only to extreme cases where users repeatedly treat the model cruelly without identifiable purpose, and does not apply to common user dissatisfaction, rebuttals, dark creative themes, or model testing and research.The usage policy also prohibits widespread deceptive activities, such as operating fake accounts or fabricating news organizations with Claude, and in the "Do Not Undermine Democratic Processes" section, it prohibits deceiving voters or disrupting elections. Reports indicate that this change occurred after Anthropic sought collaboration with well-known religious scholars, as the company attempted to persuade them that Claude might be conscious or have a soul in certain cases.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Next French Presidential Election" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative funding pool size reaching 1.461 billion dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Marine Le Pen," with a corresponding winning probability of approximately 43.25%.

According to CNBC, U.S. Democratic Congressman Don Davis proposed the "No Betting on Your Own Race Act," which aims to prohibit federal office candidates from trading prediction market contracts related to their own election results.Under the bill, violators will be fined at least $10,000 or three times the net profits from the related trades, whichever is higher. Before this proposal was introduced, Davis's Republican opponent in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, Laurie Buckhout, was fined nearly $2,600 for trading Kalshi contracts related to her candidacy and was suspended from trading on Kalshi for three years.