ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on social media that this Wednesday is Christmas, and major trading platforms in Europe and the United States will be closed for the holiday, with crypto funds typically showing outflows this week.Currently, ETFs are the main source of external funds for the crypto market, and the pressure from fund outflows on the crypto market has significantly increased compared to previous years, with strong risk-averse sentiment in the market. This bull market has not yet experienced a significant correction, and now with the Christmas holiday, funds are relatively tight. It is possible that there will be a deleveraging event before Trump's inauguration, with a strong risk-averse sentiment in the market.The options market has nearly $12 billion in options expiring, accounting for more than 40% of the current total open interest. Large traders and market makers are actively adjusting their positions, and paying close attention to the market can occasionally yield good opportunities for bargains. The volatility expectation for this week's Christmas is not high; the market is more focused on betting on the trends before and after Trump's inauguration at the end of January. Recently, it remains a good opportunity to buy options.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno stated: "Bitcoin plummeted to $88,000 yesterday, mainly driven by deleveraging in the futures market, but spot demand remains strong. As prices fell, the number of open contracts decreased, indicating that long positions in the futures market were liquidated. The funding rate also declined."

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that given the strong upward trend of Bitcoin since the U.S. elections, it believes that a target price of $100,000 to $120,000 may not be far off. As the market prepares for the next rally, it is important to note the following trends and risk factors:Due to many large participants preparing for it and selling call options during the rally, implied volatility has been declining. With each new high, trading desks have observed the market selling call options and buying put options to hedge against downside risks.The market remains highly leveraged, especially in altcoins, where significant leverage has pushed the perpetual funding rate (1 year) up to 50-100%. Therefore, the risk of deleveraging could be quite substantial, particularly for altcoins.QCP Capital believes that the potential strength of BTC represents a systemic shift in the market in anticipation of Trump's return to the White House. The idea of initiating strategic BTC reserves and rotating from gold to BTC provides a strong bullish perspective that could support BTC prices.

ChainCatcher message, according to Coinbase's latest weekly report, Bitcoin's recent performance has lagged behind the U.S. stock market and other macro assets. Since the deleveraging in early August, Bitcoin has consistently underperformed compared to stock indices.Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han noted: "From a risk-adjusted perspective, Bitcoin's price is currently 0.50 standard deviations below its three-month average, while the S&P 500 index is actually 1.41 standard deviations above its three-month average."The analysts believe that Bitcoin's recent price performance has been volatile, trading within a relatively narrow range, which aligns with concerns over the lack of new specific narratives to drive asset price performance. They stated: "Bitcoin's price has struggled to fully recover since early August. The lack of new narratives, combined with September traditionally being a tough month for cryptocurrencies, has kept traders on the sidelines."The main reasons for this situation include reduced ETF inflows, a supply glut specific to Bitcoin, and the rebound of the U.S. dollar index, which may weigh on cryptocurrency performance.The analysts also pointed out that Ethereum's performance continues to lag behind Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio reaching a new low for the year, which is related to outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs.

ChainCatcher message, Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn analyzed the impact of Bitcoin's drop of over 10% within a few hours on August 17, experiencing deleveraging and breaking the long-standing low volatility of Bitcoin.The main points are as follows:The open interest in the Bitcoin futures market saw its largest decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022, evaporating over $2.75 billion.Short-term holders are facing significant unrealized losses, which may lead to further declines in the short term.Long-term holders continue to accumulate, with over 40% of Bitcoin supply held for more than three years, reaching an all-time high.Small holders (<=10 BTC) have not yet increased their holdings to the levels seen during other downturns in 2023.$25,000 is an important technical support level.He stated that this rapid decline has cleared a significant amount of leverage, resulting in the most thorough reset of the Bitcoin market since the FTX collapse. In the absence of strong positive catalysts, the recent trend remains primarily downward, with $24,000 and $25,000 seen as key support levels. In fact, if there is no quick rebound in the short term, nearly 90% of short-term holders are in a loss position, which will bring further downward pressure. Both long-term holders and small holders are continuing to accumulate.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, a team of strategy analysts at JPMorgan led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has analyzed that the crisis at FTX.com will lead the crypto market to face weeks of deleveraging, and this turbulent period could push Bitcoin down to $13,000. Given the interactions between the exchange, FTX's sister trading firm Alameda Research, and other parts of the crypto ecosystem, "a series of margin call notifications" may be underway. (Bloomberg)