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4E: The escalation of the trade war threatens to overwhelm the benefits of slowing inflation, leading to declines in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the threat of an escalation in the China-U.S. tariff war has overshadowed the positive effects of slowing inflation. Investor concerns have taken precedence, and U.S. stocks failed to maintain Wednesday's significant rebound. On Thursday, the three major indices at one point dropped by at least 5%, although the decline narrowed towards the end of trading. By the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%, having at one point dropped by 6.3%, nearing the 7% first-level circuit breaker, marking the largest intraday drop since March 2020; the Nasdaq fell by 4.31%, and the Dow Jones by 2.5%. Major tech stocks collectively declined, with the seven giants index dropping by 6.67%.In the cryptocurrency market, the strong rebound from the previous day reversed sharply last night alongside the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to a low of $78,464, nearly erasing all gains from the previous day. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $80,258, down 2.67%. Among the top ten mainstream coins, Ethereum performed the weakest, influenced by whale sell-offs and the decoupling of sUSD, briefly falling below $1,500. Before the deadline, it is reported at $1,541, down 6% in nearly 24 hours.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.89%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022. Oil prices dropped over 3% due to weak supply and demand expectations. Risk aversion surged, with gold reaching $3,220, setting a new historical high.Latest data shows that the U.S. March CPI fell short of expectations across the board, but the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized, which may soothe investors in the future. As Trump's chaotic tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, expectations of a tightening global supply chain have intensified, raising broader concerns about an economic recession. The market remains skeptical about whether the 90-day tariff delay can lead to substantial negotiation outcomes.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will benefit from the retreat of the dollar reserve system and the global trend of de-dollarization

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated: "The era of U.S. Treasury bonds (and to a lesser extent, U.S. stocks) as global reserve assets is coming to an end. Since Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971, the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds has increased by 85 times. The U.S. has had to create credit currency that matches global economic growth. This is a boon for some Americans and a bane for others. Trump's election was driven by those who felt they had not shared in the 'fruits of prosperity' over the past 50 years.Once the U.S. current account deficit is eliminated, foreigners will not have dollars to purchase U.S. bonds and stocks. If countries begin to shift towards 'national priority' policies to boost their own economies, they will sell off their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and stocks to gain liquidity in their own currencies. Even if Trump later softened his stance on tariffs, no Treasury Secretary or head of state would dare to bet that he wouldn't flip-flop again. Therefore, the world cannot return to the way it was before. Every country must fight for itself.Gold will return as a neutral reserve asset. The dollar will still be the global reserve currency, but countries will settle global trade by holding gold. Trump has hinted at this, as gold is tariff-free! In the new monetary system, gold must circulate freely and at low cost.Today, those who have benefited immensely from the old system are mostly still in denial, immersed in a fantasy: that everything will eventually return to 'normal.' Absurd to the extreme.Those who wish to adapt to a return to the global trade order before 1971 should buy gold, gold mining companies, and Bitcoin (BTC)."
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