Forbes: A 25 basis point rate cut has become a consensus in the market, and the key lies in how the Federal Reserve signals its monetary policy for next year
ChainCatcher news, according to Forbes, economists and financial market professionals indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the early hours of the 19th, but perhaps more noteworthy is what signal the Fed will send regarding its monetary policy goals for 2025.Currently, economists from the three major investment banks—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase—predict that the Fed will lower the interest rate from the current range of 4.5%-4.75% by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%. This would bring the rate down to its lowest level since February 2023, a full percentage point lower than the 5.25%-5.5% range from July to September 2023.However, despite the market reaching a clear consensus on this, the Fed will also release its quarterly economic forecasts. This includes each central bank president's expectations for interest rates in 2025. Economists from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase expect the median forecast to be revised from the previous prediction of four rate cuts of 25 basis points next year to three, with an expected target range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025. Regardless, it is clear that Americans will need to adapt to higher interest rates for an extended period, as rates are likely to remain above 3% for a long time, a threshold that was never reached from 2009 to 2021.
