ChainCatcher message, after the release of the CPI data, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 11.7%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 88.1%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, interest rate futures traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates by only 26 basis points by December, down from about 37 basis points before the data was released, which means there will only be one rate cut of 25 basis points this year.

ChainCatcher news, PGIM Fixed Income stated in a report that the Bank of Japan may raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points this year. However, if Japanese consumers significantly increase their spending, the Bank of Japan may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. It noted that the Bank of Japan is approaching a nominal policy interest rate of around 2% through gradual rate increases, with the most recent hike raising the rate to the important psychological level of 0.5%. In the long term, PGIM believes that the Bank of Japan considers at least a nominal interest rate of 1% to be appropriate.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data at 21:30 tonight, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 14.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 3.7%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 32.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 63.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, marking the third rate cut in this round of easing cycle.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 17%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 83%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price expects a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in overall PCE for December, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in core PCE, which is in line with market expectations.Economists generally expect core PCE to continue to decline in the coming months, although sticky service prices still pose upward pressure on the index. Russell Price added in his analysis: "Maintaining a pause is a very rational and reasonable viewpoint, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the June meeting."

ChainCatcher news, the European Central Bank's first appearance of the new year, has lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with a 25 basis points rate cut. The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been reduced from 3.15% and 3.40% to 2.90% and 3.15%, respectively.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank stated that the European Central Bank's policy decision is essentially ready to guide a further rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. This is the consensus expectation among analysts and the market.Given the recent general uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration and the ongoing resilience of the domestic economy, it is expected that there will be no new signals regarding the outlook for the European Central Bank's policy rate. Therefore, it is anticipated that the three-tier reaction function (inflation outlook, potential inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission) will prevail, and the European Central Bank is expected to reaffirm its data dependency.Additionally, the market expects the European Central Bank to cut rates by nearly 100 basis points this year. While we expect the rate cuts by the European Central Bank to exceed this, if Lagarde does not commit to the endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle, the market may once again experience the hawkish reaction seen in December.

ChainCatcher news, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that the sharp drop in Nvidia's stock price yesterday triggered a chain reaction in the cryptocurrency market, leading Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) traders to quickly hedge their risks. The Bitcoin futures basis fell to negative territory for the first time since August 2023, while the nominal open interest experienced the largest single-day drop in history, plummeting by 17,225 Bitcoin.It is reported that the futures basis is the difference between the price of a futures contract and the current spot price of the underlying asset. This serves as an indicator of market sentiment and expectations. When the futures basis falls into negative territory, it indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment, and in the context of heightened risk aversion, traders are willing to sell futures at prices lower than the spot price.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders are increasing bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, fully pricing in a 50 basis point cut this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 3 days until the next FOMC meeting, with a 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January and a 97.9% probability of no change.The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by March is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 27.0%, and the probability of no change is 72.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the market expects the bank to cut rates.TD Securities forex analysts stated that since the data is generally in line with or weaker than the European Central Bank's December forecast, this meeting should directly result in a 25 basis point rate cut. Short-term market dynamics reflect tight positioning and valuations, and we believe this will provide a good entry point for re-engaging in new long positions on the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, increasing the target rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. This is the largest rate hike since 2007, bringing the rate to its highest level since October 2008. Since restarting rate hikes in March last year, the Bank of Japan has raised rates three times in less than 12 months.

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that 25 economists all indicated that the Bank of Korea will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25. (Jinshi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. economy is in a "sweet spot," but the market may be overly pessimistic about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius stated in a new report released on Monday that the key issue for monetary policy is how strongly the Trump administration implements its import tariff agenda.Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year, in June and December, and will cut rates again in 2026.Jan Hatzius said, "But the risks around this forecast are generally tilted toward further easing, partly because even if the economy performs well, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may decide to cut rates before June, and partly because while a significant rate cut by the FOMC in the event of a sharp deterioration in economic data or risk sentiment is unlikely, it is far from out of reach."

ChainCatcher news, traders raise bets on ECB rate cuts, expecting a 100 basis point cut this year. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Fidelity has reduced the fees for its Canadian Bitcoin ETF to 32 basis points, matching BlackRock, which just launched a similar product in Canada at 32 basis points.Currently, the fees from both companies are the lowest in the market. U.S. issuers have brought some competitive actions to Canada.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Wells Fargo expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, in September and December, down from the previous forecast of three rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, after previously predicting that the Federal Reserve would cut rates twice in March and June.