BAL

4E: The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, slows down balance sheet reduction to release liquidity, and both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market rise collectively

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, it announced a significant slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT), easing market liquidity pressures. Powell reassured investors that the risk of recession is low, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the job market is still solid.According to 4E monitoring, the Fed's dovish stance boosted risk assets, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising on Wednesday: the S&P 500 up 1.08%, the Dow up 0.92%, and the Nasdaq up 1.41%. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla rising 4.68% and Nvidia up 1.81%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin continuing to rise to $87,453 driven by tech stocks, before slightly retreating to $85,866 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%. Other major tokens also rose collectively, with Ethereum returning above $2,000, while XRP surged over 11% due to the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index soared, but the increase quickly narrowed to 0.21% after the Fed announced its decision to hold steady; U.S. oil closed up 0.39%; spot gold prices hit a historic high during trading for two consecutive days, approaching $3,052 during Powell's press conference.Powell acknowledged at the press conference that Trump's economic policies have brought significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, but reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy. The updated dot plot indicates that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, consistent with the forecast from December last year. At the same time, the Fed downgraded its economic growth forecast while raising its inflation expectations, showing characteristics of "stagflation."

"Fed's megaphone": The Federal Reserve is considering adjusting its balance sheet reduction plan to address the debt ceiling challenge

ChainCatcher news, according to Wall Street Journal reporter and "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, Federal Reserve officials will consider adjusting their $6.8 trillion asset reduction policy. For the past three years, the Fed has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities accumulated during previous stimulus programs, including measures to stabilize the market during the pandemic in 2020.Currently, the Fed may choose to pause or slow down this tapering process. This move aims to avoid a repeat of the situation in 2019, when balance sheet reduction led to stress in the overnight funding market, forcing the Fed to pivot and expand its holdings.Roberto Perli, the executive in charge of overseeing the balance sheet at the New York Fed, stated this month that pausing the tapering would be a "tactical decision" that "would not change the ultimate goal." RBC Capital Markets interest rate strategist Blake Gwinn pointed out that pausing the tapering makes sense because "the debt ceiling will distort these signals."Currently, the Fed allows up to $25 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without reinvestment. As holdings decrease, bank reserves also decline. However, the debt ceiling issue could interfere with this process, as the Fed is also the government's banker.Analysts expect that the Fed may pause the tapering for several months until the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance before resuming. Gwinn stated that if the economy worsens, this "pause" could also turn into a "stop," prompting officials to terminate this form of policy tightening.
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovators