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The probability of selling Bitcoin on Polymarket's Strategy has surged this week, rising from a low of 11% today to 30%. This morning, Strategy deposited 411.48 BTC into Coinbase, worth $30,300,000.

Lookonchain posted on platform X that Michael Saylor's Strategy has just deposited 411.48 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth 30.3 million dollars; on Polymarket, the probability of MicroStrategy selling BTC before December 31, 2026, has now reached 84%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 0.6%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 6.9%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers" on Polymarket, the option "Los Angeles Angels" in the sub-market "Spread -3.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 9% an hour ago to the current 69% (a fluctuation of 60%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market event "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles" on Polymarket, the win probability for the "Baltimore Orioles" option in the sub-market "Spread -3.5" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 43% an hour ago to the current 94% (a fluctuation of 51%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 91.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 8.5%.

According to official news, the smart DeFi assistant Otomato announced the completion of a $2 million financing led by Improbable. Otomato is a no-code Web3 automation protocol and DeFi assistant that allows users to create, monitor, and automate on-chain operations, with over 3,000 users currently.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99.2%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.8%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 11.3%, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the "Spurs vs. Thunder" event, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5" has experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 37.5% an hour ago to the current 21.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Babylon Labs has initiated a temperature check proposal in the Aave community, proposing to integrate native Bitcoin as collateral on Aave V4 through the Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults protocol.This solution does not require wrapping, cross-chain bridges, or custodians. Users will lock Bitcoin in Taproot UTXOs, and redemptions will be controlled by on-chain rules (such as loan repayments), settling directly to Bitcoin UTXOs. The proposal deploys two Aave V4 Spokes: Babylon Core Lending Spoke (lending) and BTC Vault Swap Spoke (post-liquidation settlement).Collateral exists in the form of vaultBTC, a transfer-restricted ERC-20 token that can only be transferred between fixed whitelisted addresses. In the liquidation process, liquidators can immediately settle with WBTC, and subsequent Bitcoin redemptions will be completed by arbitrageurs.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 90.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market event "Knicks vs. Cavaliers" on Polymarket, the "yes" option for the sub-market "Dean Wade: Assists O/U 0.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 39.5% an hour ago to the current 64% (a fluctuation of 24.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 2.7%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 0.3%.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 3.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 14.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 0.4%.

According to Jinshi reports, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has surged to 52%. Currently, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surpassed 5%, and the market no longer needs to wait for the Federal Reserve's statement, as it has already reflected the expectations of a rate hike. Analysts point out that the trends of gold and U.S. stocks will be affected, and investors need to pay attention to related market dynamics.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.7%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 10.4%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the "Spurs vs. Thunder" event, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 66.5% an hour ago to the current 49% (a fluctuation of 17.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Jin Shi's report, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 14.8%.

According to Jinshi reports, the interest rate swap market shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of 2026 is over 80%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Cavaliers vs. Knicks" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the win probability for the "Cavaliers" option in the sub-market "1H Moneyline" has experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 32% an hour ago to the current 48% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.