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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 14.4%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 7.5%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Spain vs Argentina - Exact Score" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching $6.4688 million. The option with the highest market consensus is "Spain 1 - 1 Argentina," corresponding to an estimated probability of about 15.5%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Swiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys," the option "Total Games: Over 2.5" in the sub-market experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 99.45% an hour ago to the current 76.05% (a fluctuation of 23.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 11.2%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 5.1%.

The international authoritative consulting agency IDC released the "2025 China AI Programming Market Share Report." The report shows that the scale of China's AI programming market will reach 399 million yuan in 2025, and it is expected to grow rapidly to 1.173 billion yuan by the end of 2026.In terms of market competition, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 47.6% thanks to its core AI programming product Qoder, a figure that exceeds the combined market shares of the second to fifth ranked companies.IDC analysts pointed out that AI Coding is evolving from a mere "code generation tool" into a "software productivity platform" that covers the entire software lifecycle. Currently, Alibaba's Qoder product line has served hundreds of thousands of enterprises including China FAW, CITIC Securities, and AsiaInfo Technologies, with over 5 million users globally.

On July 16, according to WEEX TradFi market data, the overall Chinese concept technology sector has warmed up, with market funds refocusing on the valuation repair of leading e-commerce, content, and search companies. Among them, BABAON rose over 6.62% in 24 hours; BILION rose over 4.01%; JDON rose over 3.71%, with multiple Chinese concept tech stocks jointly driving the sector's enthusiasm.WEEX Labs believes that Alibaba's latest release of a real-time voice model further enhances market expectations for AI business development. Coupled with improved profit expectations before the earnings report and capital rotation, this has jointly driven the sector's rebound, with this round of market activity leaning towards the repricing of undervalued tech stocks. In the short term, attention still needs to be paid to performance realization, policy signals, and changes in the risk appetite of the US stock market.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event "PGA Tour: British Open Champion" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Louis Oosthuizen" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 0.05% an hour ago to the current 29.6% (a fluctuation of 29.55%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "World Cup Golden Boot Winner" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Lionel Messi" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 46.75% an hour ago to the current 65.65% (a fluctuation of 18.9%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.18%, the S&P 500 index rising 0.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.63%. SK Hynix ADR fell 7%, Alibaba rose over 4%, with reports stating that Alibaba Qianwen will be integrated as AI capabilities into Apple products.

According to a report by Reuters, the Cyberspace Administration of China announced on Wednesday (July 15) that Apple's edge-generative AI service "Apple Intelligence" has successfully completed filing in China and is approved for use on iPhone devices in the Chinese market. The official announcement has not yet specified a concrete launch date.According to informed sources, Apple's AI service will integrate the AI model capabilities of Baidu and Alibaba. Alibaba subsequently confirmed in a statement that its "Tongyi Qianwen" (Qwen) large model will be integrated into the Apple Intelligence experience for users in China on iOS, iPadOS, macOS, and visionOS. Apple has not yet responded to this.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "World Cup Golden Ball Winner" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Kylian Mbappé" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 37.5% an hour ago to the current 22.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of the "Federal Reserve's July decision" on the prediction market Polymarket, the winning probability of the sub-market "No Change" option has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 61.5% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 29%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 63.1%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 36.9%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 28.3%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 20.4%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 58.3%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 41.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 23.9%.

According to Jinshi, U.S. short-term interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July is about 45%, an increase from 35% earlier on Monday.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event "Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Overtime" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 3.6% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 46.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev," the "Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev First Set O/U 8.5" sub-market's "Over" option's winning probability has experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 69% an hour ago to the current 85% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, a Wall Street Journal survey shows that the probability of a U.S. economic recession has dropped to 25%, down from 33% in April.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "World Cup Golden Boot Winner" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Lionel Messi" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 19.85% an hour ago to the current 35.95% (a fluctuation of 16.1%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 33.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 18%.