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The Alibaba Cloud Token Plan Personal Edition will significantly increase the monthly quota. The prices for the Lite, Essential, and Standard tiers remain unchanged, while the quotas will increase by approximately 74% to 78%. The Lite package priced at 39 yuan will increase its quota from 11,500 to 20,000 Credits, the Essential package priced at 79 yuan will increase from 25,500 to 45,000, and the Standard package priced at 139 yuan will increase from 45,000 to 80,000.The Pro package will also see a price reduction and an increase in quota, with the monthly fee dropping from 499 yuan to 312 yuan, and the quota increasing from 180,000 to 200,000 Credits. Calculating the subscription cost per Credit, the costs for all four packages have decreased by approximately 43%.The Token Plan is Alibaba Cloud's monthly subscription service for large models, which can connect to AI programming and agent tools such as Claude Code, Qwen Code, Qoder, and OpenClaw. Users can call different models using a unified Credits quota. The new quotas will gradually be made available to existing users and will supplement the current subscription cycle's quota. The price for existing Pro users will remain unchanged for the current cycle, with the new price taking effect from the next cycle.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Sunderland vs Chelsea" event currently ranks high in trading activity on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 5.0753 million USD. The option with the highest market consensus is "Chelsea," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 51.5%.

According to Jinshi Data, Hong Kong tech stocks weakened in the afternoon, with Alibaba (09988.HK) falling nearly 5%, Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) and Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) dropping over 3%, and Kuaishou (01024.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) also following the decline.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Federal Reserve December Decision" event is currently the most traded on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 150 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "an interest rate hike of 25 basis points," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 64.5%.

According to Decrypt, Bitcoin developer Matt Corallo stated on the MARA Foundation TV program that he estimates there is an 80% chance that the next soft fork of the Bitcoin network will be the "Big Consensus Cleanup" (BIP-54).This proposal was introduced in 2019 and aims to fix four long-standing vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's consensus rules, including issues related to the difficulty adjustment mechanism and denial-of-service attack vectors among miners.

According to Gelonghui, citing the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, on November 4, a joint release of the "Self-Regulatory Convention for the Development of Intelligent Agents" was made by 20 entities including the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi.The convention mentions the construction of interconnected infrastructure for intelligent agents, co-building interoperable infrastructure, developing technologies and standards for intelligent agent registration and resolution, capability description and discovery, intent understanding and transformation, network routing and connection, resource scheduling and measurement, protocol compatibility and mutual recognition, continuously reducing the cost of cross-domain discovery and connection for intelligent agents, and supporting the interconnected collaboration of intelligent agents.The convention also mentions accelerating the empowerment of intelligent agents across various industries, adhering to serving the real economy, developing low-threshold tools for intelligent agent development and deployment, collaborating on research and development of intelligent agents aimed at real operational scenarios that create actual value, promoting the embedding of intelligent agents into existing production systems and business processes, creating benchmark applications, continuously reducing the cost of implementing intelligent agents, and assisting industries in improving quality and efficiency.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Winner of the South Carolina Senate Election" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Annie Andrews (D)" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 63.5% an hour ago to the current 97.9% (a fluctuation of 34.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to "Du Jia," Alibaba is conducting internal testing of the AI film and television creation platform "Looogen," with the slogan "Logical, Self-Produced." This product is positioned as a local agent for short drama and video production, capable of completing script breakdowns, shot design, character and scene material generation, voiceover and music production, and final editing through dialogue, while managing multi-episode material packages and on-set assets, supporting white model rehearsals and video expansion.Looogen offers a desktop client and local operation, supporting Windows and macOS (Intel/Apple dual chips), and provides the capability for private deployment and access to proprietary model channels. All creative sessions, generated materials, and final products are stored on local devices, forming a local closed loop in terms of data and copyright.The product offers two switchable operational modes: the film and television agent dialogue mode, driven by natural language commands for AI to automatically complete the entire process; and the film and television suite workstation mode, where creators can manually enter independent process modules for refined control. The internal test version is equipped with multiple models including Seedance 2.0, supporting three video ratios of 21:9, 16:9, and 9:16, as well as resolutions from 480P to 1080P. The product is still in the internal testing phase, and features and pricing may be adjusted, subject to official information.

JoAnne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx Asset Management, stated that if labor market data weakens, consumer demand slows, or financial conditions tighten, it may reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.Current money market pricing shows a 74% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

The prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are optimistic about the Democratic Party controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Polymarket gives a 78% probability, with related market trading volume exceeding $58 million; Kalshi gives a 74% probability, with related contract trading volume exceeding $100 million.The individual Senate district markets on both platforms also favor Democratic candidates: James Talarico has a winning probability of 74% to 76% in Texas, Troy Jackson has 73% in Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed has 78% in Michigan. Traditional polls also indicate that the Democratic Party may experience a "blue wave."Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that this election is the first prediction market election, with related betting transactions exceeding $1.4 billion. However, the platform previously failed to predict Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the runoff, and its impact on voter behavior and electoral credibility is also under scrutiny.

Menlo Ventures partner Deedy Das utilized Harmonic data to analyze 8,525 U.S. startups founded between 2019 and 2026, examining 63 founder background characteristics to compare which individuals are more likely to receive lead investment from top venture capital firms in seed or Series A rounds.The results showed that founders with experience at top VC firms had a 2.83 times higher chance of securing lead investment compared to others with similar conditions, ranking first. Founders who had worked in cutting-edge AI laboratories and those with backgrounds in the cybersecurity industry had chances of 2.16 times and 2.03 times, respectively. A background from top universities provided a 1.41 times chance, while former Google employees had a 1.29 times chance. Former VC employees include not only investors but also resident entrepreneurs, researchers, and interns, some of whom incubated projects within the fund.The study also listed several negatively correlated factors. Founders with an MBA degree had a lead investment chance ratio of 0.65; being educated in China had a ratio of 0.59; and if the oldest founder in the team was over 50 years old, the ratio was 0.57.

According to Fidelity's statistics, since 1938, the probability of the S&P 500 index recording an increase in the 12 months following the U.S. midterm elections is 95%, with an average return of about 14%. In contrast, the average return in the second year of a presidential term (i.e., midterm election year) is only about 5%.Additionally, statistics from several institutions show that after 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all cases in the following 12 months, with an average increase of about 15%. The weakest increase was about 1% after 1986, while the strongest was about 33% after 1954. It only declined by about 5% after 1938 and remained basically flat after 1946.The upcoming U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 11%, with the maximum drawdown of about 9%, which is about half of the average drawdown in midterm election years, showing stronger performance than historical norms. Fidelity points out that this pattern is not related to which party wins, but past performance does not guarantee future results.

Apple and Alibaba announced a partnership to integrate Qianwen into Apple Intelligence. Chinese users can access Qianwen's text and image understanding, content generation, and other capabilities through Siri, writing tools, and visual intelligence.These features will be available for testing starting November 4 with the latest iOS developer beta version and will be officially launched with the release of iOS 27.3 in December.

As the market lowers its bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the prices of federal funds futures have risen, and the market's pricing probability for a rate hike in December by the Federal Reserve has dropped to about 70%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Winning Party in the House of Representatives in 2026" event on the prediction market Polymarket is currently among the hottest trading topics, with a cumulative fund pool size reaching 309 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Democratic Party," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 92.5%.

The market maintains a pricing of a 90% probability for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.