ASD

4E: "Tariff Delay" Fake News Triggers Wild Fluctuations in US Stocks, Nasdaq Closes Higher, Crypto Market Bounces Back

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Monday. During the day, influenced by false news about "tariff delays," the indices fluctuated widely, with the Nasdaq experiencing a maximum amplitude of nearly 10%. U.S. stocks briefly turned positive, but fell again after the news was debunked. Before the market closed, Trump stated that he was not considering suspending the tariff increases and mentioned that multiple countries were coming to negotiate with the U.S. By the close, the three major indices showed mixed results: the Dow fell by 0.91%; the S&P 500 dropped by 0.23%; the Nasdaq narrowly rose by 0.10%, ending a two-day decline. The index of the seven major U.S. tech stocks rose by about 0.2%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded, with Bitcoin leading the decline in the Asian session yesterday, hitting a low of $74,508. In the evening, rumors of a "90-day tariff delay" drove BTC to rapidly break through $81,000, but it fell back after the news was debunked. As of the deadline, Bitcoin was fluctuating above $80,000, up 2.8% in 24 hours, while other altcoins generally saw significant rebounds. In the midst of the market's violent fluctuations, ETH performed particularly weakly, dropping to $1,411 yesterday, leading in decline and hitting a one-year low in market capitalization share. In the current rebound, its increase is also significantly lagging, deepening market concerns about its long-term competitiveness.In the forex and commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.29%, while recession expectations pushed crude oil to a three-day decline, dropping over 2% and hitting a new low in more than three years. Spot gold fell by 1.76%, showing a trend of rising and then falling throughout the day, mostly in a downward state.Trump's tariff policy has triggered a global chain reaction of countermeasures, causing turmoil in the financial markets. Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve can step in to stabilize the market, but with current inflation pressures being significant, the likelihood of the Fed intervening urgently in the short term is low unless the market or economy falls into a severe crisis.

Analysis: The decline in the OAS indicator shows a short-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Nasdaq

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, as a key indicator of economic sentiment and corporate credit health, the ICE/BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) has retreated from recent highs, supporting a rebound in risk appetite for cryptocurrencies and the stock market, but analysts believe this relief may be short-lived.The OAS metric measures the average yield spread between dollar-denominated high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for embedded options in the bonds. This metric is widely regarded as a barometer of credit risk, with widening spreads typically indicating increased investor concerns about corporate defaults or economic weakness.Currently, the OAS has decreased from a six-month high of 3.4% earlier this month to 3.2%, a decline that supports the resurgence of Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq. Previously, the spread had surged by 100 basis points over four weeks to mid-March, as concerns over economic recession triggered by Trump's tariff policies caused Bitcoin to drop below $80,000 and the Nasdaq to suffer significant losses.However, analysts expect that as the negative effects of Trump's tariff policies gradually become apparent, the OAS spread will widen further in the coming weeks. Hans Mikkelsen, Managing Director of Credit Strategy at TD Securities, stated in a recent client report, "We believe this is just the beginning, and things will get worse before they get better."From a technical analysis perspective, the OAS has broken through a three-year downtrend line, which is a highly cautionary signal for investors in risk assets.
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