4E: Tariffs and inflation squeeze, risk aversion rises, focus this week on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" and non-farm data
ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the data released last week has heightened market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Increasing signs indicate that due to worries about tariffs driving up inflation, U.S. consumer confidence has significantly declined, spending has decreased, and long-term inflation expectations have risen. U.S. stocks fell sharply last week, ending the strong rebound from the previous week. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.53%, the Dow Jones by 0.96%, and the Nasdaq by 2.59%. The Magnificent 7 index of tech giants dropped by 2.95% last week.The cryptocurrency market followed the U.S. stock market's downward trend. Bitcoin started the week by rising close to $89,000, but then fell back under pressure from Trump's tariff news, with Friday's PCE data further exacerbating the decline. As of the deadline, it was reported at $81,884, down 4.46% over the past 7 days. Other major tokens generally fell, with Ethereum dropping below $1,800, nearing new lows. Market sentiment remains gloomy and may continue to be under pressure until Trump's tariff actions become clearer.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell by 0.05% last week; risk assets were suppressed by safe-haven demand, while geopolitical tensions supported some bottoming out. Oil prices rose by about 2% last week, and gold has increased for four consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high, with spot gold surpassing $3,100.Last week's weak data reignited economic concerns, leading to a comprehensive decline in financial markets. As Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" loom on April 2, market nerves are frayed, and safe-haven sentiment is rising. Additionally, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for March will be released this Friday evening, followed by a speech from Powell. The Federal Reserve held steady in March, and the market is looking forward to Powell's further insights on the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies, seeking new clues for the direction of the Fed's monetary policy and more reliable guidance for the market direction in April.