ChainCatcher news, according to DL News, after the cryptocurrency industry invested $133 million in the 2024 election, the pro-cryptocurrency political action committee Fairshake has raised $78 million for the 2026 midterm elections. Coinbase has announced it will contribute $25 million to Fairshake, while Andreessen Horowitz has also pledged to invest over $23 million in election funding for Fairshake and its affiliated PAC.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, financial website Forexlive analyst Justin Low stated that almost everyone now claims Trump has won, the Associated Press has announced that Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in addition to CBS, Fox News, and CNN also acknowledging Trump's victory, even Edison Research and FiveThirtyEight have declared Trump the winner.

ChainCatcher news, on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the cumulative trading volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election has exceeded $3.6 billion.As of November 6, Republican candidate Trump has a trading volume of nearly $1.48 billion on Polymarket, while Democratic candidate Harris has a trading volume of $1.01 billion. This week, the trading volume for the U.S. presidential election accounts for 91.2% of the total weekly trading volume on the Polymarket platform.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, the 2024 U.S. presidential election has set a record for the highest campaign spending in history. The Trump and Harris camps have raised nearly $4.2 billion in total, with actual spending reaching $3.5 billion.The report shows that as of mid-October, the fundraising scale of the two candidates' campaign teams, external support groups, and party committees is basically on par.

ChainCatcher message, encrypted prediction market Polymarket data shows that Harris's chance of winning has fallen below 1%, with the betting amount reaching $982,932,890, while Trump's chance of winning has risen to 99%, with the betting amount reaching $1,455,400,357. As of now, the betting amount for the U.S. presidential election has exceeded $3.55 billion.

ChainCatcher news, on November 5 local time, the counting of votes for the U.S. presidential election is underway. According to the Associated Press, Trump's electoral votes have risen to 210, while Harris has temporarily secured 112.

ChainCatcher message, according to the predicted market Polymarket data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election has risen to 90%, while Harris's probability of winning the election is 9.8%.

ChainCatcher message, as of November 4, 12:15 PM Eastern Time, the betting amount on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket for the U.S. presidential election has exceeded $3.13 billion. Republican candidate Donald Trump has a betting amount of $1.2 billion. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has a betting amount of $782.5 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, Musk's daily giveaway of one million dollars to voters has avoided legal challenges from the Philadelphia district attorney, as a Pennsylvania judge refused to block the activity. Pennsylvania is a key swing state.The Pennsylvania judge dismissed the district attorney's request to stop the contest, which claimed it was an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyer stated at the hearing that the winners of the contest are not chosen randomly. The selection of winners is based on whether they are "suitable" to be public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, typically based on their personal stories. Shortly thereafter, the judge made the ruling without any argument.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, on the last day before the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies showed almost no change, with BTC rebounding to around $69,000, up about 0.8% in the past 24 hours. With just a few hours left until the first votes in some Eastern states, traders seem to be waiting for a clearer understanding of the voting direction.

ChainCatcher message, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the current probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is 63.7%, while Harris's probability of winning the election is 36.3%, a difference of 27.4 percentage points between the two.In addition, the total amount of bets on the U.S. election on the platform has exceeded $2.7 billion ($2,734,990,070).

ChainCatcher news, on October 28 local time, U.S. President Biden cast his early vote for the presidential election in Delaware. Biden voted in support of the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.November 5 is the U.S. election day, but many states allow voters to cast their votes early. The first batch of mail-in ballots was sent out on September 11, and early in-person voting began in places like Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia starting in September. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex published a research report indicating that under the multiple influences of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors, and the intensifying "Trump trade" narrative, BTC volatility has increased, with a significant 6.2% intra-week pullback last week, followed by a rebound. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on short-term prices, with an increased correlation between the likelihood of Trump's election and the upward trajectory of Bitcoin.Market anticipation of the election has driven a surge in options trading activity, with options expiring on key dates before and after the election commanding higher premiums. Implied volatility may reach a peak of 100-day volatility shortly after the U.S. election day on November 8, indicating that the market is preparing for potential turmoil, with expectations that short-term volatility will be higher than usual regardless of the election outcome.

ChainCatcher message, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the current probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is 64.7%, while the probability of Harris winning the election is 35.4%, with the gap between the two widening again.In addition, the total amount of bets on the U.S. election on the platform has exceeded $2.5 billion.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, a trader on Polymarket caused a brief mispricing in the 2024 U.S. presidential election market by making a large purchase of Trump "victory" contracts. The trader spent over $3 million in a short period to buy 4.5 million contracts, temporarily pushing the probability of Trump's victory to 99%, far above the actual market rate of 63% at the time.This pricing anomaly was caused by Polymarket's on-chain order book mechanism. In a $275,000 order, the trader executed at 99% odds, while other orders were executed at 65.9 cents and 62.7 cents, respectively. Polymarket's dynamic order book adjusts prices with each transaction, which can lead to significant slippage for large trades, temporarily distorting the actual odds.As of now, the probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 63%, while Kamala Harris's odds stand at 36%. The market's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $2.2 billion, making it the largest market by trading volume on the platform.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, an analyst stated that Bitcoin options traders are increasingly focusing on call options with strike prices above $80,000 that expire in November.The market anticipates two significant events next month: the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on November 8. Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, stated, "Currently, the highest number of open contracts for Bitcoin options is for those expiring on November 8, which is the day of the FOMC meeting and a few days after the U.S. election, clearly leaning towards call options. This supports the hypothesis that Bitcoin options traders are generally preparing for a bullish outcome." The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate at the meeting on November 8, with the current probability of a rate cut at 90.2%. A rate cut could increase risk appetite in the broader market, and traders seem to be positioning themselves accordingly in cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to the prediction website Polymarket data, the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election has risen to 61.3%, a record high, while the probability of Vice President Harris being elected is 38.7%.