JPMorgan: The expected return on trading strategies based on Trump's social media posts is no more than 4%, advising investors to proceed with caution
ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan's latest research shows that the number of market-sensitive social media posts by Trump during this term has significantly decreased compared to his first term. The study found that among 126 posts related to sensitive topics such as trade tariffs, diplomatic relations, and the economy, only 10% triggered noticeable currency market fluctuations, with tariff-related content having the greatest impact, causing about one-third of the market volatility.For example, a post announcing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada at the beginning of February led to a decline of over 2% and 1% in the currencies of the two countries, respectively. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that although the number of market-sensitive posts by Trump rose to over 20 last week, double the average of January, it is still far below the peak level of 60 posts per week during the trade friction period of 2018-19.The research team advises investors to trade cautiously, as the expected return on strategies based on post content is not expected to exceed 4%. Currently, Trump has shifted to strengthening direct communication from the Oval Office, holding Q&A sessions with reporters almost daily.