ChainCatcher news, ECB board member Villeroy stated that the European Central Bank must be vigilant about the risks of insufficient economic growth. The market's expectation of interest rates in the range of 2%-2.5% for 2025 is reasonable. A rate cut in September is the right and wise choice.

ChainCatcher message, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, stated in a report that the currency market's current expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. in 2024 seem a bit excessive, and the likelihood of a larger cut of 50 basis points in September remains low.Data from Refinitiv shows that the U.S. money market currently expects a rate cut of 103 basis points in 2024, implying that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 50 basis points at least once in the remaining three meetings this year. Juckes stated, "Unless the economy slows significantly, the front end of the yield curve has already priced in too much of a rate cut over the next six months." He mentioned that there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the extent of the economic slowdown. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at 10 AM Eastern Time on August 23 (10 PM Beijing Time on August 23), setting the tone for the interest rate cut window in September.This is the first full day of the annual economic symposium held by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This global central bank annual meeting provides Powell with an opportunity to make the latest assessment of the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy between the Fed's decision-making meetings in July and September. Last month, he indicated that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool, the Fed may consider an interest rate cut at its next meeting.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he absolutely believes that the potential interest rate cut in September should be non-political.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased last week, indicating potential strong momentum in the job market. As of the week ending May 11, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was recorded at 222,000. Last week, this figure had risen to the highest level in over eight months, and this week's slight decline has reversed some of last week's increase.The increase in initial jobless claims this week is largely attributed to a surge in unemployment claims in New York related to school spring break. While the U.S. labor market remains healthy, it is steadily rebalancing after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points since March 2022. The easing of labor market conditions and the downward trend in inflation have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September.