ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 99 economists, 57 believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates one or two more times this year (in a January survey of 102 economists, 56 had this expectation). Among the 101 economists surveyed, 67 believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least once before the end of June (in the January survey, nearly 60% of economists expected a rate cut by the end of March). Out of 46 economists, 27 indicated that the inflation risks from tariffs have recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it had decreased.

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that 25 economists all indicated that the Bank of Korea will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25. (Jinshi)

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Among 102 economists, 65 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two times or less this year (compared to 41 out of 97 economists who had the same expectation last December). (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded expectations last week, but remains at a level consistent with a healthy labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that for the week ending January 11, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 14,000, seasonally adjusted, to 217,000.Economists had previously expected the number of initial jobless claims to be 210,000. Initial jobless claims tend to fluctuate significantly at the beginning of the year, but continue to show low layoff rates, providing support for the job market and the overall economy. The resilience of the job market, still moderate inflation, and the uncertainty surrounding President-elect Trump's broad tariff imposition and large-scale deportation plans for undocumented immigrants have led the Federal Reserve to anticipate only two rate cuts this year.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced that Chief Economist and Director of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis (DERA) Jessica A. Wachter will be leaving on January 17.SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated, "I am grateful for Jessica's leadership of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis, her judgment, and her thoughtful economic analysis. As Chief Economist, she has skillfully led this division, which plays a key role in all of the SEC's critical decisions, whether in policy-making, enforcement, or market oversight. Working with Jessica has been immensely beneficial to me; she is one of my closest advisors. As she returns to academia, I wish her all the best."

ChainCatcher news, U.S. Bank economists stated that the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts in January is clearly the baseline scenario. If the labor market stops gradually cooling down, the rate-cutting cycle may come to an end. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, former senior economist of the Obama administration and current Harvard University professor Jason Furman believes that if the labor market remains healthy, the Federal Reserve may only cut the benchmark interest rate once this year.Jason Furman stated that the Federal Reserve has entered a new phase of "needing a reason" to lower interest rates. Last year, the Federal Reserve thought "everything was fine, so why not cut rates," but if the labor market remains healthy, considering concerns about the inflation outlook and uncertainty about whether interest rates are already at the optimal level to slow demand, a 25 basis point cut this year is the most likely scenario.However, Jason Furman added that if circumstances change and the unemployment rate begins to rise, "the Federal Reserve will intervene" and ease policies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, old-school economists oppose allocating U.S. reserve funds to Bitcoin. Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke stated that he believes transferring funds to Bitcoin could hinder economic growth and drag down the economy, as these savings are not invested in real capital assets.Steve Hanke emphasized the importance of increasing productivity for improving living standards and called the idea of Bitcoin reserves "the dumbest idea."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chief Economist Cheng Shi of ICBC International stated at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the adjustment path of U.S. monetary policy in 2025 will be a "first urgent, then gradual" process. Currently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 50-75 basis points in 2025.Cheng Shi indicated that the re-inflation risks faced by the U.S. can be viewed from two dimensions: first, the current U.S. inflation is in a zone where it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there is very little room for further decline, making it quite challenging. In fact, there are many potential factors that could drive U.S. inflation upward. Second, the current market has formed an upward expectation for U.S. inflation, and inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling, which will create substantial upward pressure on inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's previously proposed funding plan for Bitcoin purchases partially relies on the large gold heritage owned by the United States—these gold reserves were left over from the era when the dollar was pegged to precious metals, allowing dollar holders to exchange dollars for gold at a fixed price.Although the dollar has not been convertible to gold since the early 1970s, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve still hold about 8,100 tons of gold. The government values this gold at $42 per ounce, which is far below the current market price of $2,650.Cynthia Lummis hopes the Treasury can reassess this gold at current market prices and use the paper profits to fund Bitcoin purchases without raising taxes or issuing new national debt. However, critics point out that this operation is not a free lunch; it would require the Federal Reserve to cover the difference between the gold certificates held by the Treasury and the new valuation through a combination of printing money and asset sales.Monetary economist George Selgin argues that this operation amounts to a "backdoor loan" from the government, bypassing the regular appropriation process to avoid new debt and obscuring the truth. Lummis's bill relies heavily on gilded magic, and George Selgin said, "What better way to win public support than to make people believe this plan won't cost a dime?"

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a report to clients on Thursday, "The upcoming potential policy changes, higher tariffs, deficit-financed tax cuts, and tighter immigration policies could all put upward pressure on prices.In fact, due to these policy changes, we predict that the core PCE inflation rate will hardly decline over the next two years. At next week's meeting, the Federal Reserve will also have to acknowledge the lack of progress on inflation, and we believe the Fed may pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with the risk that policy changes (during Trump's second term) could make this pause prolonged."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey released on Friday showed that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% during its December policy meeting to assess overseas risks and next year's wage outlook. In the survey conducted from December 4 to 11, 58% of respondents (33 out of 57 economists) believe that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again in December, compared to 44% in last month's survey.All respondents in the latest survey predict that by the end of March next year, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points to 0.50%, despite almost all central banks globally leaning towards further rate cuts. Analysts say that the Bank of Japan is watching the trends in spring wage negotiations next year and hopes to strengthen communication of policy changes to market participants before the central bank meeting in January through speeches and branch manager meetings. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech last week hinted at a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the upcoming meeting. This news left investors feeling dissatisfied. However, some economists do not believe Powell's remarks pose a negative impact on the market.Citigroup's Chief U.S. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst stated, "U.S. Treasury yields rose due to Powell's remarks, but we believe this is more a reflection of Powell keeping all options open rather than intentionally sending a hawkish signal." Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius still expects "the Federal Reserve to cut rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by a rate cut once each quarter in June and September, but it believes the FOMC may slow the pace of rate cuts more quickly, possibly as early as the meetings in December or January." However, unless the employment or inflation report in November is unexpectedly strong, the likelihood of the FOMC skipping a rate cut in December is low.

ChainCatcher news, OpenAI hires former White House official Aaron Chatterji as Chief Economist.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, a new paper by economists at the European Central Bank titled "The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin" points out that even in the case of a sustained increase in Bitcoin prices, early adopters will be the only beneficiaries, while latecomers and non-holders will suffer severe consequences, even in the absence of a "bubble burst."The economists argue that Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision of Bitcoin as a global payment system has largely failed, and people's perceptions are shifting towards viewing Bitcoin as a continually appreciating investment asset. Economists Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf believe that Bitcoin "......does not generate any cash flows (like real estate), interest (like bonds), or dividends (like stocks), nor can it be used for production (like commodities). Therefore, "...most established methods for calculating or estimating the fair value of assets fail when applied to Bitcoin."The paper states: "The new Lamborghinis, Rolexes, villas, and stock portfolios of early Bitcoin investors do not stem from an increase in economic production potential; rather, they are funded by the consumption and wealth reduction of those who initially did not hold Bitcoin." "Thus, 'missing out' on Bitcoin is not just about losing the opportunity to accumulate wealth, but it also signifies real poverty compared to a world without Bitcoin. This redistribution of wealth and purchasing power is unlikely to occur without adverse effects on society." These harmful consequences include "......the corresponding poverty of other parts of society, jeopardizing cohesion, stability, and ultimately threatening democracy."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that although nearly 90% of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March next year, a slight majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will abandon further rate hikes this year. The published survey results highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in advancing policy normalization, as most central banks globally tend to favor rate cuts, and there is uncertainty regarding the new political leadership's preferences for monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 107 economists, 86 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, bringing it to 4.25%-4.50%. By the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.25%-3.50%.

ChainCatcher news, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that he originally expected the Federal Reserve to gradually cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the Fed's actions have been "much more generous" than he anticipated, especially as they have already hinted at a possible additional cut of 50 basis points before the end of the year.Cardillo believes that the Fed's move is clearly dovish, mainly due to concerns about a weak labor market. Although the news initially prompted a positive reaction in the U.S. stock market, Cardillo pointed out that market sentiment may change in the coming days, and investors might start to worry about the economic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to maintain the key overnight lending rate at 0.25% this week, while the December meeting may be more interesting.Among the 36 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 19 expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in December. Before the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, the bank will focus on key indicators to assess whether the economy is on track, including the Bank of Japan's September and December Tankan surveys, third-quarter GDP data, and corporate earnings for the quarter. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that economists providing detailed inflation forecasts expect the CPI in August to be relatively mild, just like in July.The median forecast shows that the core CPI will increase by 0.21% month-on-month, which will keep the 12-month inflation rate at 3.2%. The overall CPI is expected to slow down to 2.5%. (Jin Ten)