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traderpow is a trader who is passionate about meme coins and NFTs, preferring high-risk, high-reward operations.
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Arthur Hayes: AI "Safety First" is essentially a destruction of computing power demand; the U.S. government's ultimate choice in all scenarios is to print money, which ultimately benefits Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled "Safety First," with the core argument that the claims of "safety first" by Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which lead to a slowdown in AGI development, are not out of concern for human welfare but rather due to economic realities. The market does not want AI; it wants AI at "Chinese prices," meaning it needs intelligence that is 100 times cheaper than what is currently available. Hayes points out that "safety first" essentially destroys the demand for computing power. If the spending on training new models decreases and laboratories shift towards efficiency optimization, customers will spend less on computing power. The three major AI laboratories do not generate any profits, and their demand for computing power supports over $10 trillion in investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions in low-quality debt, which rely on profitable tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft for off-balance-sheet endorsements. The real backstop is the holders of insurance policies in the United States.Hayes cites an analysis by Nick Nameth that reveals a "self-insurance scam": private equity giants (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, etc.) acquire insurance companies, stuffing AI data center debt and SaaS private credit impacted by AI into insurance assets, and then provide false endorsements with minimal capital through affiliated self-insurance reinsurance companies. Nameth estimates that the total amount of these false reinsurance assets reaches $1.54 trillion. Once the AI data center debt is downgraded by rating agencies due to insufficient demand for computing power, insurance companies will be forced to add capital, while the affiliated reinsurance companies will be unable to pay, leading to insolvency for the insurance companies. In most states in the U.S., the insurance protection limit is only $250,000 to $300,000, and existing insurance companies only pay into the protection fund afterward, which encourages all parties involved to maximize risk-taking. When AIG was bailed out in 2008, TARP funds ultimately flowed to Goldman Sachs and led to record bonuses, while the general public only received foreclosure notices; Hayes believes this scenario will repeat itself.For cryptocurrency investors, the conclusion is a win-win situation. If the U.S. government chooses to become the "last buyer of computing power," it will print money in the name of national security to fund unproductive economic goods, driving up financial speculation and Bitcoin prices; if the government chooses to bail out insolvent insurance companies, it will also need to print money to cover bad AI debts, increasing the money supply and pushing up Bitcoin. Hayes specifically points out that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and RMP bond purchases have stopped since August 14, but commercial banks have taken over to create over $100 billion in currency, and the interest rate hike allows banks to earn an additional $7.5 billion in excess reserve interest each year. This money will be used to expand loans and market speculation, and the net effect remains stimulative. The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a slight increase at the end of August, are about to end, the supply of dollars will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and some selected altcoins will rise. Hayes also described this situation as "incredibly wonderful," stating that the government will not allow the free market to stop building AI data centers, there will be an oversupply of spot computing power, the usage of AI agents will increase, and the surge in money printing will drive investors to chase cryptocurrency assets.
2 дня назад

DeepQA launches Arc Campaign: 11 Agent QAs for Arc ecosystem applications completed in 16 hours, powered by WORLD3 and Google Cloud Vertex AI

On September 16, the day Circle Arc's mainnet went live, the AI Agent quality assurance product DeepQA released the Arc Campaign, completing public QA for 11 ecological applications on the Arc testnet and publishing all 13 reports on the official website in a collection format. From the initiation of the project to the public release of reports for all 11 applications, it took about 16 hours.Real-time data from the official website shows that this event executed a total of 141 test scenarios, of which 117 passed, confirming 15 issues. The Critic Agent conducted real-time reviews 30 times, retaining 141 scenarios, 436 screenshots, approximately 2,200 model calls, and 16.9 million tokens. The covered applications include the Arc official testnet browser, Tower Exchange, AchSwap, Machina Bridge, OmniHub, ArcFX, SettleOne, Syn DAO, thirdweb Arc Testnet, ChainGPT Pad, and Karwan. All tests were conducted in real browsers on live applications, with the injected test wallets holding only testnet funds and no real funds used.The backend of DeepQA is powered by WORLD3 and Google Cloud Vertex AI. A group of AI Agents completed exploration, planning, testing, and reporting, with each issue accompanied by screenshot evidence, and only released after being audited and reviewed in real-time by the Critic Agent. The team stated that a decentralized QA network is also in progress, which will prioritize support for the Arc ecosystem.

Vans attributed the data center protests to power shortages, stating that electricity in the United States should be cheap enough not to require metering

U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated at the All-In Summit that U.S. AI data centers are facing increasing opposition, largely because the power supply has not kept up. Residents see data centers being built continuously while their electricity bills are rising, which naturally leads to backlash. He believes the solution is not to build fewer data centers but to increase power generation capacity accordingly.Vance mentioned that the U.S. has not built enough power facilities in the past generation, and in the future, it should pursue a state where "electricity is so cheap that it doesn't need to be metered." He also compared this to China, arguing that the slow growth of power generation in the U.S. in recent years has already affected the development of new industries like AI. "So cheap that it doesn't need to be metered" is an old slogan from the history of U.S. nuclear energy. In 1954, Lewis Strauss, the chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, used it to describe the era of cheap electricity brought by atomic energy.The IEA estimates that data centers will contribute to about half of the new electricity demand in the U.S. by 2025; the U.S. Congress is also advancing legislation this week to try to prevent the costs of expanding data centers from being passed on to ordinary households.
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