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traderpow is a trader who is passionate about meme coins and NFTs, preferring high-risk, high-reward operations.
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Vitalik compared the mining costs of BTC and the inference costs of AI: the former has electricity costs accounting for nearly half, while the latter relies more on capital expenditures for computing power

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared that the cost of Bitcoin mining is roughly half derived from capital expenditures on computing power equipment and the other half from electricity consumption; in contrast, the cost of AI inference is almost entirely dominated by capital expenditures on computing power. This difference reflects the distinct cost structures of the two computing businesses. Bitcoin miners need to continuously pay for electricity and determine their profit margins based on mining machine efficiency, coin prices, and network difficulty changes; AI inference, on the other hand, relies more on investments in expensive hardware like GPUs, as well as equipment utilization and computing efficiency.The industrial boundaries of both are also changing. As the demand for AI computing power grows, some Bitcoin mining companies are beginning to shift their existing electricity resources and data center facilities towards AI and high-performance computing businesses, hoping to transition from pure mining to computing infrastructure services. Some mining companies are leveraging previously allocated electricity capacity for mining to enter the AI data center market. However, transformation does not mean that cost pressures disappear: mining operations are more directly exposed to fluctuations in electricity prices and Bitcoin prices, while AI computing businesses must bear risks related to GPU procurement, depreciation, and underutilization. Both types of businesses compete for electricity and computing resources, but ultimately, profitability depends on how these resources are converted into revenue.

first_img Analyst Jukan: Storage and computing power will fluctuate in the same direction, local AI may meet the demand

Analyst Jukan published a discussion on the storage industry's cycle, believing that computing power and storage will tighten or loosen in sync, and that there will not be a situation where computing power is continuously in short supply while storage alone turns to surplus. He also stated that the logic of shorting storage while going long on hard drives does not hold, as hard drives are tied to the storage cycle; if this cycle declines, hard drives will struggle to remain secure on their own.Jukan noted that the market lacks a clear judgment on trends after 2027. Historically, prices often peak one to two quarters before supply increases, followed by an expansion in shipments and a contraction in profit pools. He believes that this cycle is different from those of personal computers, smartphones, and general-purpose servers, as the products used are not standardized, and the triggering factors are also different. Some investors who still view storage through the lens of past experiences of profits during upswings and losses during downswings dominate pricing, leading to a low valuation of storage. He stated that a sharp collapse similar to previous ones is unlikely to reoccur, but a gradual decline is possible; even if Samsung and SK Hynix's profit margins are halved from current levels, the price-to-earnings ratio may still be in the teens, about half of the valuation of hard drive companies.He also believes that when storage prices decline, other demands will absorb supply at various price levels, with local AI-driven personal AI demand expected to emerge. If the storage prices pushed up by hyperscale cloud providers cannot be controlled, local AI will struggle to spread. Referring to the transition from mainframes to personal computers and from cloud to smartphones, he anticipates that this AI cycle will shift from cutting-edge laboratories to local open-source AI, with the latter absorbing storage demand. He simultaneously stated that storage prices will not remain high for over ten years; prices will eventually decline, but new consumer demands driven by local AI and open-source initiatives may provide bottom support.

Silicon Valley venture capital targets GPU computing power, a16z plans to expand with about 20,000 cards

Multiple venture capital firms in Silicon Valley are competing to secure GPU computing power to provide exclusive resources for their AI startups. a16z established a computing power pool of about 20,000 GPUs as early as 2024 and is negotiating expansion with data center companies Switch and Volta. General Catalyst plans to build a data center for its portfolio companies and has brought in the former head of NVIDIA DGX Cloud in May this year to oversee AI infrastructure operations.Even if AI startups complete their financing, they may not be able to rent GPUs in a timely manner. In April this year, major cloud providers like Microsoft were reported to prioritize allocating computing power to internal teams and large clients, leaving some startups facing months of waiting. a16z previously disclosed that during times of computing power shortages, prices that could originally be secured with a six-month contract might require a three-year commitment. Model training requires a large amount of GPU usage in a short period, while inference demand is difficult to predict, making it easy to waste funds by locking in computing power for several years in advance.a16z is concentrating on purchasing and leasing computing power through the Oxygen project, redistributing it to its portfolio companies, allowing them to access prices and contract terms typically reserved for large clients. In August this year, a16z co-led a $300 million financing round for Volta, which is valued at $2.4 billion, with investments covering both AI startups and data center companies providing computing power. The small venture capital firm Crucible Capital has built a cluster with 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs for its portfolio companies to test, while also selling some computing power to a cutting-edge AI laboratory. This model allows venture capital firms to take on investments that were previously mainly borne by cloud providers and data center operators.

first_img The computing power platform Itô has joined Jump Trading, responsible for computing power trading business

The computing power and inference cost trading platform Itô co-founder Affaan announced that the Itô team has joined the trading company Jump Trading, responsible for its computing power trading business. Affaan and co-founder Alejandro stated that the team will lead the newly established internal computing power trading desk at Jump Trading and has begun trading in this emerging market.According to their introduction, Itô initially hoped to leverage the new contract market to help enterprises address the centralized AI supply chain risks that the existing system struggles to cover. After communicating with over a thousand funds, enterprises, venture capital institutions, and related practitioners, the team focused on the intermediate market for computing power and inference costs. They noted that the common contract duration for capacity is 3 to 5 years, with about 30% requiring prepayment, while the revenue for late seed round to Series C companies is mostly settled monthly and based on usage, and the secondary market prices for popular chips are also quite volatile.Affaan also mentioned that the total contract value for related medium market clusters sometimes ranges from hundreds of millions to several hundred million dollars. Itô previously built a platform as an end buyer, with team members' backgrounds including Goldman Sachs' credit basket business, open-source engineering tools, and supercomputing cluster research. They stated that Jump Trading's conditions in credit, risk control, trading experience, and hardware led them to choose to advance this business through an internal trading desk.

first_img Grayscale Research Director: Cheaper Proxy AI Will Drive Up Computing Power Demand

Grayscale's Research Director Zach Pandl stated in his column The Stack on October 8 that the rising demand for AI is due to decreasing usage costs and technology's ability to perform tasks more autonomously, thereby increasing the demand for computing power and the physical infrastructure that supports AI. Lower costs can unleash more AI activities, and the low-cost competition of open-source weight models is driving down token prices, making cheaper intelligence economically viable for more applications and automated workflows.The article cites that Anthropic's latest Sonnet model claims to reduce the cost of each task by up to 30%; OpenAI's always-on agent dots, launched on September 29, can work towards user goals around the clock, potentially significantly increasing the demand for computing power. Pandl compares that chatbots primarily answer questions, while agents execute multi-step processes to achieve goals, with tasks like preparing for client meetings potentially consuming 5 to 50 times the tokens of a single chat interaction, and always-on agents may extend processing beyond a single conversation.Pandl cites Goldman Sachs' prediction that by 2030, token consumption could increase 24 times, primarily driven by agents; even with improved efficiency, if usage grows faster, the total demand for computing power may still rise. He points out that digital activities still rely on physical infrastructure that requires time to deliver, such as electricity, data centers, and GPUs, and cheaper AI can coexist with tight computing power supply, mentioning that CoreWeave recently signed new contracts at higher computing power prices. His conclusion is that cheaper intelligence and stronger agents may expand use cases and usage enough to offset efficiency gains, thereby supporting the demand for scarce computing power and benefiting its owners.
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