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Glassnode: Bitcoin wealth redistribution, long-term holders taking profits, new investors absorbing supply

ChainCatcher message: According to a recent report from Glassnode, the ongoing bull market for Bitcoin marks a significant shift of wealth from long-term holders to new investors, and the redistribution of wealth is a sign of the maturity of the Bitcoin market. Long-term holders have been realizing record profits, peaking at $2.1 billion per day, while new investors have sufficient demand to absorb this supply.According to the report, this trend indicates that the depth and diversity of the Bitcoin ecosystem are continuously expanding, thanks to increased institutional participation and heightened retail interest.In 2024, long-term Bitcoin holders (especially those holding for 6 to 12 months) have become the main contributors to selling pressure. These tokens were primarily acquired earlier this year, accounting for 38.5% of the profits realized since November, totaling $27.3 billion.Meanwhile, Bitcoin held for over three years is relatively stagnant, indicating that higher price levels may be needed to stimulate its sale.The report notes that this is a natural cycle in the Bitcoin market. As prices rise, long-term holders distribute their wealth, allowing new investors to absorb the supply.Despite significant profit-taking by long-term holders, new investors have shown resilience, providing the liquidity needed to maintain Bitcoin's upward momentum. Metrics related to short-term holders (STH) highlight their ability to withstand market adjustments without triggering a chain sell-off.Additionally, compared to previous bull markets, the volatility of the current Bitcoin cycle has also decreased. The maximum drop in August was 32%, significantly lower than the adjustment levels of previous cycles. Analysts attribute this stability to increased institutional participation, while the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the widespread acceptance of digital assets have driven this trend. Besides the buying pressure from new retail investors, this institutional demand has also greatly supported the market, ensuring liquidity during sell-offs and supporting price resilience.

Forbes: A 25 basis point rate cut has become a consensus in the market, and the key lies in how the Federal Reserve signals its monetary policy for next year

ChainCatcher news, according to Forbes, economists and financial market professionals indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the early hours of the 19th, but perhaps more noteworthy is what signal the Fed will send regarding its monetary policy goals for 2025.Currently, economists from the three major investment banks—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase—predict that the Fed will lower the interest rate from the current range of 4.5%-4.75% by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%. This would bring the rate down to its lowest level since February 2023, a full percentage point lower than the 5.25%-5.5% range from July to September 2023.However, despite the market reaching a clear consensus on this, the Fed will also release its quarterly economic forecasts. This includes each central bank president's expectations for interest rates in 2025. Economists from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase expect the median forecast to be revised from the previous prediction of four rate cuts of 25 basis points next year to three, with an expected target range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025. Regardless, it is clear that Americans will need to adapt to higher interest rates for an extended period, as rates are likely to remain above 3% for a long time, a threshold that was never reached from 2009 to 2021.

Forbes: Trump will support the cryptocurrency industry more than Biden, but there is still uncertainty regarding the level of involvement in promoting the industry's development

ChainCatcher news, according to Forbes, when the election results clearly indicated that Trump would return to the White House, the crypto market began to rise as expected, reflecting optimism about the potential relief the Trump administration might bring to the industry. It is undeniable that Trump will be more supportive of the crypto industry than the current president, Biden. However, there remains uncertainty regarding his level of involvement in promoting industry development and whether relevant legislation can be passed amid a busy legislative agenda.All candidates for positions such as leaders of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Treasury may share favorable views towards the industry like Trump, but it is unclear how much of a priority this issue will be seen. The Trump administration may prioritize deregulation for most industries. However, the crypto industry may be the only sector that runs counter to this trend, as industry members are eager for regulatory clarity. The priority these regulatory agencies place on the crypto industry will determine the duration of this process, but progress in reducing some of the current lawsuits from the SEC may be quicker. However, it is more likely that these agencies will at least provide some form of favorable regulatory guidance, even if not a specific rule.
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