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4E: US stocks continue to rebound, cryptocurrency market fluctuates within a narrow range

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks continued the rebound from last Friday on Monday, as investors sought to buy on dips after four consecutive weeks of market declines, pushing the indices higher. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.85%, the Nasdaq rose 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.64%. Most large tech stocks fell, with Tesla leading the decline at 4.83%, down more than 40% this year.The cryptocurrency market fluctuated narrowly, showing overall lackluster performance, with Bitcoin hovering around $83,000, reported at $83,389 at press time, up 0.15% in 24 hours. Other major tokens mostly saw slight increases, with Ethereum striving to hold above $1,900, and BNB's meme market recovering strongly, rising nearly 18% in the past 7 days.In the forex commodities sector, the shadow of Trump's trade protectionism continues, with the dollar index falling 0.33% to a five-month low; influenced by geopolitical factors, oil prices rebounded over two days, with U.S. oil rising 0.59%; gold, driven by safe-haven sentiment, saw spot gold rise 0.57%, reaching a historical high for three consecutive days.Trump's tariff remarks have temporarily quieted, and the market is closely watching global central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, and Powell's comments after the meeting will be closely monitored, as he has previously stated he is "not in a hurry" to cut rates. Investors will look for any changes in his tone.

Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 within 6 months

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025.Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin to be $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return).However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis carries uncertainty akin to "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
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