ChainCatcher news, according to Glassnode analysis, the 1-week realized volatility and 1-week implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin have approached multi-year lows, with similar IV levels occurring at the beginning of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) of the options exchange Deribit has been continuously declining since January 20, dropping from a high of 72 to about 50.8.Analysis indicates that this trend suggests Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class, with investors no longer reacting violently to short-term market shocks, and its performance increasingly resembling the dynamics of commodity markets and traditional safe-haven assets.The market is closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, particularly regarding the potential impact of the new tariff policy proposed by Trump. On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. Department of Labor will release weekly unemployment insurance claims data for the week ending February 15 on February 20, with initial jobless claims expected to be 215,000, compared to the previous value of 213,000.Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on the topic of "Navigating the Inflation Wave on the Phillips Curve."

ChainCatcher news, during the "Trends and Rhythms of the New Web3 Cycle" event held at Consensus HK, UFLY Labs Investment Partner & UXLINK co-founder Neal, BrickBank founder & CEO Jeffrey, GOAT Network growth lead Annie, SevenX Ventures investor Yinghao, and Hashkey Capital investor Rui shared insights in a roundtable discussion on the theme of "New Trends in 2025."Regarding the direction of the current market, Annie believes it is difficult to apply the experiences of previous cycles and cannot draw simple conclusions, but she is relatively pessimistic at the moment; Yinghao predicts that the market will be very differentiated, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana having their own independent trends; Neal thinks this bull market is more influenced by macro factors than any previous cycle and advises investors to pay more attention to macro trends. Jeffrey believes that besides macro factors, there are also signs of large-scale applications in the industry, indicating that the industry is progressing. Rui states that where there is volatility, there are opportunities, and the discussion of whether a bull market exists is not very meaningful.In an uncertain market, what key areas should be focused on? Rui believes that new content will certainly emerge and suggests paying attention to mechanisms that are more competitive and complex. Jeffrey recommends looking for directions with a profit-making effect and then finding targets within that direction. Neal indicates he will heavily invest in AI; besides AI and memes, Annie is also focused on RWA. Yinghao is interested in new assets and new asset issuance methods.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart stating that compared to the previous bull market, liquidations at that time often triggered severe volatility. In this round of the market, even with a short-term liquidation amount of up to $600 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum, prices have still managed to stabilize at the bottom without significant declines. This indicates that the overall leverage level in the market is low, traders are more cautious when setting stop-losses, and confidence is stronger, possibly influenced by the SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.Now, the risk of Bitcoin going to zero has been largely eliminated, and the market's focus has shifted to its downside potential. However, historical data shows that the downward pressure from liquidations is relatively limited. This contrasts sharply with the high leverage environment during the 2020/2021 bull market.

ChainCatcher news, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic stated that due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, the market is closed, and Bitcoin's volatility is low this Monday, with prices remaining stable. However, he reminds investors to pay attention to the risk index trends, which indicate that the potential price correction risk is rising. Key price levels to watch are $92,000 and $94,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analyst Van Strate stated that data shows the actual volatility of Bitcoin and the implied volatility are both near multi-year lows, and the "volatility chaos index" has reached one of its highest levels in recent years, which may trigger short-term trends.Since the end of November, the price of Bitcoin has been oscillating within a narrow range of $91,000 to $109,000, with volatility significantly contracting. Glassnode data shows that the 2-week actual volatility (annualized) measuring the price fluctuations over the past two weeks has dropped to 32%, marking one of the lowest levels in years. Meanwhile, the 1-month options implied volatility, reflecting the market's expectations for volatility over the next four weeks, has also fallen below 50% annualized, similarly at a historical low.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate below the $100,000 mark, several important events this week may bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. FTX will initiate the first round of creditor payouts this week, targeting convenience creditors with claims not exceeding $50,000, who will receive full principal and 9% annual interest compensation. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that the total payout for this round is approximately $1.2 billion, which is relatively limited in scale.Mena Theodorou, co-founder of the crypto trading platform Coinstash, expects that some of the payout funds will flow into the Solana ecosystem. He stated, "Considering FTX's previous significant investments in SOL and the Solana ecosystem, along with SOL's over 500% increase in the past year and the continuously growing on-chain activity and developer numbers, these funds are likely to flow back into the network."Other important events that the market is paying attention to include:Trump will have a conversation with Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Fox News on February 19, expected to involve topics such as cryptocurrency policy and regulation;The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the January meeting on February 20, with the market focusing on inflation data and interest rate policy direction;The Consensus Hong Kong conference will open on Tuesday, expected to attract thousands of participants from over 90 countries.

ChainCatcher news, according to Ming Pao, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has previously approved the listing of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and spot trading. When asked whether it would consider allowing the launch of leveraged and inverse (L&I) ETFs for virtual currencies, SFC Chief Executive Officer Ashley Alder responded that the volatility of the relevant assets would be taken into account, and if their volatility is not significant, the approval for the issuance of related leveraged and inverse products would be considered.Alder also mentioned that the SFC will soon issue a circular allowing issuers to launch ETFs with alternative investments as assets, which will include relevant investor protections.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released an English community briefing stating that Bitcoin traders are closely watching the $94,000 to $98,000 range, with the main resistance level at $98,000. At the same time, many have noticed that recent volatility has been unusually low, and the price trend lacks certainty. The market is gradually reaching a consensus that the volatility of short-term options may experience significant expansion from the current level of 17%. There is a clear divergence between the view of taking aggressive positions in a low-volatility environment and the view of waiting for a clearer direction.

ChainCatcher news, according to information released by Lin Chen, the Head of Asia Pacific Business at Deribit, traders paid $2.158 million in premiums to go long on volatility, while buying a combination of Bitcoin put and call options expiring at the end of the year, with 50 Bitcoins on each side. Profit can be made if the BTC price at delivery is below $76,000 or above $196,000.

ChainCatcher news, DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev posted on the X platform that due to factors like Trump and memepads, market liquidity has been drained. Additionally, professional trading firms are not engaging in degen trading, but they have withdrawn stable assets and some blue-chip stocks from the market, leading to very low spot activity, which further harms liquidity. This is a phase of accumulation and redistribution that will ultimately lead to significant market volatility.Given the market's fragility, macro narratives could have a huge impact. We should expect that RWA, AI, finance, yield, and science-related assets have a great chance of rising. As a tokenized culture, memes will randomly surge and absorb the "degen" liquidity in the market; the most interesting year in the cryptocurrency space has just begun.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's daily market observation, following the DeepSeek action two weeks ago and the tariff-driven volatility last week. This time, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, briefly disturbing the market ahead of Powell's testimony and the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.As Mexico and Canada are among the top three suppliers to the U.S., these tariffs cast doubt on last week's temporary delay and may reignite trade tensions. Adding to the uncertainty are Trump's remarks about possible sanctions against Japan—an important U.S. ally—following the White House's move to block Japanese steel acquisitions of U.S. steel. Commodity prices remained largely unchanged, while Asian stock markets fell, and Bitcoin briefly dipped to $95,000 before rebounding—indicating that this is a sentiment-driven market fluctuation rather than a fundamental change in risk appetite.Bitcoin's volatility is now skewed towards put options until April, reflecting a lack of catalysts for upward movement. A feedback loop is emerging—President Trump's sensitivity to market reactions is facing increasing skepticism from the market. This may further encourage him, increasing market volatility.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn pointed out that while Bitcoin has only dropped by 7%, altcoins have shown a larger decline. It is recommended to keep the proportion of altcoin investments between 5-10% based on individual risk tolerance.Maartunn stated that the current strategy of many investors holding only altcoins without any Bitcoin will expose their portfolios to excessive volatility, while the volatility of Bitcoin itself is sufficient to generate substantial returns, especially compared to traditional financial markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the uncertainty of Trump's policies will trigger short-term market volatility, but Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will still be long-term beneficiaries.Scaramucci emphasized that if banking institutions can custody cryptocurrencies, incorporate them into their balance sheets, and become major investors, this move will have a profound and powerful impact on the market.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the first round of trade policies from the Trump administration has triggered significant volatility in global markets. The yield curve for government bonds has entered a bear flattening phase—2-year yields are rising while 10-year yields are falling, indicating market concerns about short-term inflation and the long-term risks of the trade war on global economic growth.The gold price spread between New York and London has widened, reflecting not only the closure of popular EFP arbitrage trades but also suggesting that the transfer of gold between different vaults may face logistical challenges, reminding the market of the uncertainty that tariffs may further expand.The cryptocurrency market has experienced a severe sell-off. As a risk indicator before the opening of the U.S. market, the cryptocurrency market saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH declining more than BTC. Analysts believe that today's risk-averse sentiment is primarily driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single asset event. Market volatility is expected to continue ahead of negotiations between Trump and Canada/Mexico and the implementation of EU tariff policies.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart report indicating that over the past five years, Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility averaged 58%. Typically, during bull and bear markets, volatility exceeds this average, as seen in the 2020/2021 bull market and the 2022 bear market. However, the recent volatility has been unusually low, which is noteworthy because Bitcoin's volatility is usually amplified during market ups and downs.The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has seemingly played a significant role in suppressing Bitcoin's volatility after attracting Wall Street investors. Lower volatility allows institutional investors to take on more risk, and combined with Bitcoin's strong performance in 2023 and 2024, this may continue to attract more Wall Street funds. As institutional buying absorbs market downturns, this trend is expected to further stabilize Bitcoin's price, thereby suppressing its volatility.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has reached a new high for the year, while the implied volatility of options has decreased by 13% this week, indicating that traders expect price fluctuations to ease.On the macro front, the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. has risen to the highest level in three years, and the consumer confidence index has ended a six-month streak of increases, with growing concerns in the market regarding the Trump administration's trade policies and regulatory changes. On the institutional side, there has been a surge in applications for Litecoin, XRP, and Solana ETFs, indicating rising institutional investment interest, while the U.S. House Oversight Committee has launched an investigation into unfair banking services faced by crypto-related entities.